Another question regarding form study.

I was looking at the form guide and was wondering.

Rosehill Race 2 #1 Deigo Garcia.

Looking at this horses form Where it ran 7th in the 2yo magic millions over 1200m by 3.6 lengths carrying 55.5. The race time was 1:09.88. The last 600m in 35:03. Now the start before that it won a 2yo Listed Race over 1100m carrying 56.0 in a race time of 1:04.74. The last 600m in 35:64.

The last 600m in both races 35.03-35.64=0.61 secs.


Mad Gambler

What's the question?

Weather I need to study this horse further to see how each start stacks up.

It's a start.

Mad Gambler

Stacks up against what???
I agree with KV.
Good luck.

Mad,

I think sometimes punters tend to dissect too much and not look at the raw facts.

You do not have enough facts from those "paper" figures.

What condition was the track on both occassions?
What was the pace?
From which barrier did the winner come from?
Was he given an easy run or pratted three deep?
Did the horse you're analyzing run on or fade, or just held position?

Most of this we don't readily know.

The MM race was run faster early with a slower 600m, but why exactly?

I think one needs to look at groups of horses rather than individuals when you don't have all the info.

The best guide is the market price on the day, if the horse ran fast and is in the top end of the market, then it's a pretty good bet, if it's wide open, then usually the figures you have regarding times are not as good as they look on paper.

Disclaimer: before people jump down my throat and shout "overs" or "value", I can prove this...if need be

The impact of weight is very overrated, so is track condition, some punters are so obssessed with these falacies, they miss winners and back more losers.

Horse A carries 55kg, but the jockey runs wide and is three wide the whole way.
Horse B carries 59kg, and the jockey hugs the rail

Who wins???

But there will always be exceptions to everything in racing!

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If I back a horse to win and the 'public' is also selecting that horse as the winner and there is a sudden track downgrade due to rain to 'dead' and I notice the horse easing on the market quickly and another firming, then turning to my selections form I see 'DEAD 6-0-0-0', The horse duly runs 2nd. last so boy-o-boy are track cond't. important !!