I'm back after an absense that included moving from Vic to Qld.

Now, my question is in regard to a horses form, which i shell try to explain with an example. Consider the following.

A Class 1 with 4 horses over 1900m. Each has the following form.

1 348x 58.0 4
2 1517 55.0 1
3 x583 58.5 3
4 5475 54.5 2

Now, 1 is first up from a 3 month spell. Prior to that it ran 8th of 12 over 2100m in a class 1 on a heavy track beaten 5.6 lengths carrying 57.5. The start before that, it ran 4th over 1250m in a class 1 on a dead track beaten 1.7 lengths carrying 56.

2 Ran 7th in a class 2 over 1900m beaten 3.5 lengths on a slow track carrying 55.5. Prior to that it won over 1900m in a maiden on a heavy track carrying 56.5.

3 Ran 3rd in a class 2 over 2100m on a dead track beaten 2.1 lenghts carrying 54.5. Prior to that it ran 8th over 2400m in a class 1 on a heavy track carrying 56.5.

4 Ran 5th in a class 2 beaten 12.9 lengths on a dead track carrying 56.5. Prior to that it ran 7th beaten 10.6 lengths on a heavy track carrying 55.5.

What can one conclude from the above? Well, 1 is 1st up after a spell, and checking through its form it hasn't won or placed 1 st up and goes up 2 kgs. 2. Wasn't for from the winner last and its won both in the heavy and at the distance. And it drops 1.5 kgs. 3 Ran 3rd on a dead track over 2100m and drops 200m in distance, but goes up 2 kgs. 4. Form is to poor to be considered in this.

My selection would be no.2.

Have I explained how i have arrived at my concludions. Or have i left anything out that i should consider.

benny

i yhink no 3 has what i would consider a betting chance depends on the odds you can get no less than 6s

Benny, not sure what you're asking here, but with the info provided, number 2 would have been my selection as well. The price would determine if I backed it or not.




ps if it won a maiden 2 starts ago how has it won 2 of its last 4 runs?

Have analysised the race corrtly and this is a fictious race to explain my how i came up with my selection.

I used the method for an actual race being R2 at Hawkesbury 16/8.

These are my selcetions:

R2---2,4,5,6,8.

The price will determine which one i back, but i will take them in a boxed quin and exacta and bank the value selections in tri's and 1st fours using flexi betting.

mad gambler

Just acting on a hunch here but would Benny and the recently departed Mad Gambler be one in the same person?

No, I'm not mad gambler!

benny

old habits die very very hard mad

welcome back

also a brief diversion via Fred The Punter.