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  #1  
Old 29th August 2007, 11:00 PM
wesmip1 wesmip1 is offline
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Default Strike rates

All,

What are peoples thoughts on acceptable strike rates ? Personally I think it depends on the number of bets ... What is your thinking on:

1 bet a day ?
2-5 bets a day ?
5-10 bets a day ?
10+ bets a day ?
Every race ?

Personally I think you need the following :

1 bet a day - 40%
2-5 bets a day - 33%
5-10 bets a day - 25%
10+ bets a day - 20%
Every race - 20%

Any thoughts ?

Good Luck.
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  #2  
Old 30th August 2007, 01:02 AM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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wesmip1, not exactly the answer you were looking for but a few years ago I did a lot of research on pre-post favs, & 2nd favs using various publications for comparison, the first thing that became apparent was that there was very little difference in S/R & LOT between publications, and aslo very little difference between (S/R & LOT) pre-post v actual favs.

So believing I could tilt the S/R in my favour I picked just one pre post fav per day, I did this over an extended time (on paper) after 50 or so hypothetical bets a pattern emerged, i.e. the S/R & LOT were the same as if all pre-post favs had been backed, or if any number had been picked randomly or otherwise. I carried on for several hundred Hypo bets but it was obvious what was happening and I gave up.

I also tried "handicapping" the pre-post favs sorta, and yes, again S/R increased, but the LOT increased in proportion again.

Now the disconcerting thing is that when the actual pre-post price was taken into consideration the S/R increased dramatically the lower the pre-post odds, but the LOT increased in proportion.

What I'm suggesting is that no matter how many bets you place per day your overall S/R and LOT (or POT if you are a clever boy) over an extended period of time will always remain the same???
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  #3  
Old 30th August 2007, 08:27 AM
YoungBuck YoungBuck is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wesmip1
All,

What are peoples thoughts on acceptable strike rates ? Personally I think it depends on the number of bets ... What is your thinking on:

1 bet a day ?
2-5 bets a day ?
5-10 bets a day ?
10+ bets a day ?
Every race ?

Personally I think you need the following :

1 bet a day - 40%
2-5 bets a day - 33%
5-10 bets a day - 25%
10+ bets a day - 20%
Every race - 20%

Any thoughts ?

Good Luck.
I am currently having 2-5 bets per day (well i was until EI) and over the last few months have averaged 35% s/r @ 4.36 for one method, and 34% s/r @ 5.71 with another method. So that is very close to what you are suggesting. Average winning dividend must come in to consideration or the strike rate is completely irrelevent.....
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  #4  
Old 30th August 2007, 10:57 AM
AngryPixie AngryPixie is offline
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Wes

I've always thought that strike rates taken in isolation are largely irrelevant. It's not size that counts, it's what you do with it
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  #5  
Old 30th August 2007, 12:00 PM
moeee moeee is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YoungBuck

averaged 35% s/r @ 4.36 for one method
and 34% s/r @ 5.71 with another method.



You seen the Move..THE CASTLE?
If so then you'll understand when I say..."Tell him he's dreaming"
Unless it's true...then you must live in or own a castle.
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  #6  
Old 30th August 2007, 12:16 PM
YoungBuck YoungBuck is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
You seen the Move..THE CASTLE?
If so then you'll understand when I say..."Tell him he's dreaming"
Unless it's true...then you must live in or own a castle.
Would you like to see my results? Guess that wouldn't prove anything.

I did say it was over the past 2 months so maybe i've just been super lucky.

No Castle just yet, but a mortgage the size of one though.....

'It's just...the vibe of the thing. I rest my case'
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  #7  
Old 30th August 2007, 12:42 PM
AngryPixie AngryPixie is offline
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Smile

Hows the serenity?
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  #8  
Old 30th August 2007, 12:52 PM
YoungBuck YoungBuck is offline
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so much serenity......Lol.
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  #9  
Old 31st August 2007, 01:43 AM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Partypooper,

Seems we could have saved ourselves some time, I also spent many months on exactly the same journey. I wonder how much diversified time has been spent when it could have been focused?

My findings were exactly the same.

The proportions and ratios were the same, strike rate always seems to be offset by diminishing profit.

One thing I did find, however, was that traditionally odds on favourites are slightly overbet, making the lack of money for the second favourite a longterm winning advantage (at say Betfair prices or Top Fluc).
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  #10  
Old 31st August 2007, 02:57 AM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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Crash, agreed , that was what I was getting at really.

Chrome, good to hear that my research was basically correct, and yes I deliberatly didn't go into 2nd favs at that point as I didn't want to confuse things even more,....... but I also detected an avenue there......the returns were just that % more in the backers favour, but as far as Betfair..... sorry not my forte' there.
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