My place plan yesterday, best day EVER, only backing overs 17 bets for 17 hits. The overall S/R (including unders) is 65% what are the odds of 17 hits in a row?

If anyone is kind enough to do the calculation, I would like to know the % figure for 3 outs in a row i.e. how many times in say 1000 bets will I encounter 3 losses in a row with a S/R of 65%? any help appreciated!

Hey Party,
Hope you were using the DIABOLICAL STAKING PLAN.

Re your question I think Bgahwan is your man for that.

Cheers
darky

Level stakes only on that one Darky, but with the benefit of hindsight....GEE!

Bhags, how about it?

This is absolutely impossible! 7 bets today 7 hits, thats 24 consecutive hits!

Did you Hit?
or were you Hit?

Which would then become a Bit.

The theoretical run of outs for 65% SR is 7 in a row.

The percentage chance of Hitting 3 successes in a row within 100 bets, is ....
.65 x .65 x .65 = 27.46%

The percentage chance of 3 outs in a row in 100 bets, is ...
(100-27.46) = 72.54%

__________________
Cheers.

Thanks for that Bhags, I understand what youve said but I'm having trouble converting that into eg. on average how many times will I get 3 losses in a row say with 100 bets.

This incredible run of placings worries me in the sense that if I can get 24 in a row then it must also be possible to get 24 LOSERS in a row isnt it? gripes that would definitly wipe me out!

This incredible run of placings worries me in the sense that if I can get 24 in a row then it must also be possible to get 24 LOSERS in a row isnt it? gripes that would definitly wipe me out"
Iomaca said: Just using the same level stakes. Started out on a % of bank, and found the most profitable top level without destroying odds.

Have you considered perhaps having the best of both worlds by using level stakes unit of one (for example) and when a winner is struck put 50% of the winnings on the next selection and if that wins put 25% on the next selection THEN revert to one unit. Advantage could stand 24 consecutive loosers with much less money outlayed rather than the 1-3-7 or 1-3-8 concept. This should be much safer and be conducive to sleeping better in the evening would be interested to learn the POT using this 1-2-3-1 step. Over to you for consideration.
>>

Jack, sounds as if that would be good, in fact as the plan is in profit just about any staking plan would probably work.

Like I said, all I'm doing with 1,3,7 (or 8) is increasing stakes really over a long time I would have so many bets @ 1 unit, so many @3 units and so many @ 7 (or 8) units, all on selections with a 65% S/R. But the whole idea was mind games really.

Umm.....

Maybe I've got this all wrong, but wouldn't (100-27.46) = 72.54% be the percentage chance of NOT hitting 3 successes in a row?

Wouldn't the percentage chance of 3 outs in a row be....
.35 x .35 x .35 = 4.29% ?

If it's not then I definately need another cup o' coffee

Den

Youve got my head spinning now, the reason I need to know is this , with a staking plan of 1,3,7 revert back to 1 after 3 losses so you accept the 11 unit loss. Yes I realise that all I'm, doing is increasing stakes overall really, but there is a mental consideration as well, eg. say you have a sequence of WLWLWLLWLWLWLWLLW,which shows a level stakes loss on the day, BUT a healthy profit with a 1,3,7, staking (were backing for the place here) So you see I need to know how many times I have to accept the 11 unit loss say in 100 bets?