great work la mer.............
............cheers.......slowman.............

Thanx for that La Mer--looks like we might be onto something here

Kenny Victor (a lonely soul who doesn't get out much) went to a seance where he and his computer controlled a beer stein in the middle of some letters cut from a racing form. We surprisingly contacted someone who identified himself as Punter57 and:

Quote:

Originally Posted by (the ghost of) Punter57 .....is there any reason that both monkeyinjapan and La Mer (and I suppose all the members watching) are happy with NUMBER OF RACES instead of NUMBER OF HORSES BET when assessing the SR and POT. Or is there only ONE horse per race?? No point going into why La Mer finds the inclusion of longer priced winners MORE PROFITABLE but then excludes them, I suppose. Cheers,....

The spirit that spoke was restless, presumably, if it was indeed P57, from his sojourn in the netherworld that is two weeks solitary outside the forum but I lost contact with it before I could identify the exact cause of it's restlessness. (The timbre of the last quoted sentence suggests to me that the spirit was indeed who it stated it was). I'm hoping the source of this restlessness was caused by this thread as it's Monkey's only post in the last week.
I see in looking back over the posts that La Mer did in fact specify selections at one point which may settle him slightly.
Anyway, a weight is lifted from me by sharing this with the family that the dismembered P57 so desperately misses.

KV

Not really sure what that last post was all about, but here are some figures from my database. I went back only the last two years because I don't have meetings from Perth before 2004. Thus the test is from Jan 1 2004 to Nov 30 2005.

Races = 82
Races won = 30
S/R = 36%
Outlay = 89 (the number of bets)
Return = $220
POT = 147%

Rules are as follows:

Race Distance: 1200 - 3200
Race Field Size: 6 - 14
Max No 1st Uppers: 5
Day of Week: 7
Venue: SMW
Horse Win %: 25 - 100
Career Starts: 5 - 20
TAB Number: 1 - 7
Weight to Carry: 53.5 - 57.0
Runs this Preparation: 0 - 3
Last Start Finish Posn: 1 - 3
Won or Okay at Distance: Y
Won at This Course: Y
Metrop Last Start: Y
Av Prizemoney Rank: 2 - 24
SP Price: 3.0 - 999.9

Running the same rules for 2003 -- Sydney and Melbourne only -- came up with 2 wins from 23 bets and a loss of $14.

Monkeyinjapan

.

Nice one KV

Sat. 7th. Jan.

Using La Mer's 'tweaked version' of the original system:

Race Distance: 1200m- 3200m
Day of Week: Saturday
Venue: All Metro venues
Horse Win %: 22%-100%
Career Starts: 4-18
TAB Number: 1- 7
Weight to Carry: 54.5kgs-57.0kgs
Last Start Finish Position: 1st-3rd
Won at Distance
Won at Course
Metro run @ Last Start
Max Last Start Beaten Margin: Less than 6 lengths
SP Price: $ 2.0-$21.0


I came up with one bet only for this system. I'm not sure if I missed any[?]:

Syd. R4/1 Old Mystique [$2pp] SP might go in either direction.

I'd be interested to know when the majority of the selections for a year came up. Would it have been during the main carnivals? Also what is the rule if more than 1 qualifier?

Cheers, Crash

Welcome back Crash.

Good to see you too Kenny. Still kicking a few goals I hope.

Crash, I make it a total of four qualifiers - the other three all had non-Saturday metro meetings @ the previous start but in two cases the meetings were of 'Saturday' quality.

The results included multiple qualifier races but I think they only amounted to a total of 33.

SANDOWN
MR 7 #5 KEPOLA
RANDWICK
SR 4 #1 OLD MYSTIQUE
SR 7 #3 PELENNIUM
ASCOT
WR 5 #3 ZAMBANE

I'm all for tweaking but only if there is some logic to it. What logic is there to the weight tweak? Or are we drifting from tweaking to b*c*f*t*i*g?

KV