Sorry guys, I should explain my figures a little better.
The percentage I quoted was for the method I gave Partypooper.

Last start winners, favourite or second favourite, within 7 days, greater than 3yo's.

The strike rate is actually a bit lower than it could be, because of multiple selections in some races.

The raw strike rate for favourites which won last start is 33.95%
The raw strike rate for favourites which did not win last start, excluding first starters is 29.43%
The raw strike rate for first start favourites is 33.51%

But the POT or LOT is significantly different on each group.

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Stix, if it's true that Best Tote is 10% better than unitab then then all of your list there is into profit (FOR THE PLACE)

My stats show, based on Betfair SP Favs.

Favs that ran 2nd or 3rd LS shows a slight profit.

Favs that won LS show a -13% LOT but higher SR than any other stat .

What is weird is 1st career Favs have a similar SR as a LSW.

Cheers.

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Cheers.

Talking about favorites ...... I have never seen a day where so many have won 14/12/2008

I have "devised" a All states Metro favourite backing system, with back tested results of the following with UNITAB results:

to 31/12/07
Sel 459
Win 202
S/R 44%
Profit 118+
POT 25.75%
Hi Div 4.9
Lo Div 1.3
Av Div 2.86

Plc 322
S/R 70.15%
Profit 22.7
POT 4.95%
Hi Div 2.2
Lo Div 1.0
Av Div 1.5


From 1/1/08 to current (and bet on via Unitab):
Sel 21
Win 11
S/R 52%
Profit 14
POT 67.2%
Hi Div 4.8
Lo Div 2.2
Av Div 3.19


Plc 17
S/R 80.95%
Profit 4.9+
POT 23.33%
Hi Div 2.0
Lo Div 1.1
Av Div 1.52

Obviously using best tote is one way to improve with out a staking plan, but as this is a profit making plan..... What staking plans would forum members suggest to improve these results?

(Hey Crash, the wetter the better the POT is too...Slow to Heavy S/R 42% POT 30.0%....no darts required )

Thanks In Advance

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Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!

stix, i came to the conclusion sometime ago that wet tracks were not to be feared & my methods have never suffered due to the state of the track

looks like a nice win system there

Stix,

I generally don't bet on heavy tracks, but I often do on a slow track on a Sat. when all major meetings are wet.

Due to lots of scratchings on heavy tracks [poor prices] and often much smaller fields, it's obviously easier for a system tailored around back-fitted winners and back-fitted SP prices, to have performed OK on paper. It's also easier to find a winner or place-getter in a 4 or 5 horse race too and there is plenty of those small fields around [Syd. comes to mind regardless of the conditions]!

Lets see a heavy track system work in real time when SP prices can often fluctuate to any old price after the jump:-)

Also have the same outcome for my own selection method, which is not System based (as I've stated before)

As for fav's depends on what source you use to select them, I don't use SP as defined after the jump/pre-post/local paper form guide etc, but my own market pricing model.

Also bets are only placed on fields with runners of beetween 8 and 15 (after scratchings) - but you weren't to know as I have only just stated this. In fact in fields of 7 or less, it is a loss making activity.

Good Luck to all in the pursuit of a dollar (or two) !

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Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!

we often seem to be on the same page stix

i only bet 8-14 starters, none of my selection methods are price dependent, & track conditions irrelevant

fields <8 are a hopeless pursuit imho, muddling pace, jocks auctioning off the result(just kidding...or am i), etc etc

Hey Stugots

Yep, you have to find what works. I usually confine my betting to 3 & 4 yo's and rarely bet on the older horses (5yo+), except for races >1800m, but then they have to be in good form. Anyway works for me.

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Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!