Here you go Paddy, but I have to warn you I haven't had the greatest success in Stoney Creek

3:10PM STONEY CREEK
Race 5 TAB Horse ODR D.O.
3 SIONNACH 11-4 $ 3.75
8 GRANDTASTIC 3-1 $ 4.00
7 ENCOSTA ROCKET 13-2 $ 7.50
9 JEWEL OF ALGARVE 15-2 $ 8.50

Just re-entered selections after important scratchings.

Cheers

[ This Message was edited by: White Turnip on 2004-03-30 12:18 ]

Quote-'The secret to good punting is knowing the value of selection...'

Initially, I thought that this is what I had stated in my previous posting but after some consideration understand that there is a difference...a successful betting strategy relies on (not solely, but it is definitely an important point) understanding the above point. XTP always provides with his ratings, what a reasonable return should be on each selection...

I am guessing that seasoned punters not only look for value for money in a bet but have developed a betting strategy that provides an enhanced return on some bets that are paying less than they should...

Wouldn't mind hearing other views...

Any punter who can consistently recognize 'value' [before a race] would be a very rich punter indeed.

Most of us recognize it often enough to stay out of the poor house and even spot the odd doozy way over the odds, but not often enough to turn a consistent profit.

Cheers.

From my time on this forum i have learned a lot and have met some smart people.....but for all the knowledge that you have you fail to really understand people......do you think the average punter is trying to become a professional....do you think they have what it takes even if they did want to be a pro.....i agree if they punted like a pro they would do much better but most punters are there to have fum relax and maybe win a few dollars along the way....now you can say that is a stupid way to bet but tell me this.
on avereage a punter losses $50 a week there are plenty of other things people do that cost them $50 a week for fun maybe going to the footy haveing a few beers going to the movies renting some videos playing golf....they do these things to have fun.....you know what the biggest thing for the average punter is....to brag to his mates about backing a 20/1 winner on the weekend or picking the winner of a big race.....he doesn't tell them he backed 5 losses that were under value....when melbourne cup comes around you check out the people bragging about them backing the winner or winning the sweap.....i just look at it as another race great if i get the winner but doesn't really matter if i don't....i reckon that the average punter gets more enjoyment out of punting than we do....and thats the truth.

Gday All,

First up thank you to the people who have made favorable mention of my ratings. I know from my point of view I really appreciate the thoughts.... Ok .. now to the meat of the issue..

White Turnip wrote:
My value bet on Sunday was GREIGACIOUS who saluted at 25-1. Everyone seemed to jump off it after a bad race. It beat KABLAMMO in the start prior to that in Canberra. I rated it at 13-2. I had 2 other losses for the day but that more than made up for it.

I write:

I wonder whether you thought Kablammo was a hot horse on the first Tuesday in Nov of last year when it won at Flemington at about 15 bucks... I did I rated it on top, (posted here as well) and I still think he is a class runner and no doubt he will get my cash when he is at a value price.

Now that is all and good, but I didn't see Gregacious as your Value Bet prior to the race, it may have been posted but I haven't seen it..

Here was my top 6 rated horses for the race: they were posted well in advance:

4 $3.7 Indeed I Do
1 $6.5 Spectrum's Image
10 $6.5 Greigacious FIRST - $25.50
7 $11.4 Galactic Queen
2 $11.4 Magic Duck SECOND -
3 $11.4 Not Fussy

I can go on ....
Race 8 04:39 PM
Life & Veteran Members Hcp. Handicap 3yo+ S/C 1 win-ly
11 $4.0 Sam Sung A Song
2 $5.3 Sportsbrat FIRST - $24.40
6 $7.1 Patpong
1 $9.5 Murphy's Blu Boy SECOND -
5 $9.5 Desert Ransom
14 $9.5 Our Jin Mah

To me they are fair value and probably worth skiting about, but you can't keep getting reults like that, eventually you will go broke chasing those 20/1 winners. You need to look for nice overlays. And that is where I think the true value in racing lies, and probably the best formula for making a quid in this game.. A typical example of a great overlay was yesterday at Coffs R1 With Fire Bright winning. A truly great overlay. Way better than Gregacious, Sportsbrat or even Raven Protector. That horse winning makes the day a huge profit day.. That is if you bet to the odds.. Gregacious was about a 4 or 5 X overlay, Raven Protector a 3 X overlay and Sportsbrat a 5X overlay. but this horse at coffs was a 7 x overlay, but we aren't hearing about it because it paid 5 bucks, but I made a great profit from that race, more than from the others mentioned.. AND there were only 4 runners in the race. Ofcourse it isnt always that good, but hell that's the nature of the beast.. :smile:

Coffs Harbour 29 March
Race 1 01:42 PM
Comfort Inn City Centre Hcp. Handicap Open
3 $1.5 Fire Bright FIRST - $5.00
4 $4.7 Planet Lover SECOND -
1 $6.2 Darcy D'Or FOURTH -
5 $8.3 Laminated THIRD








_________________
Good luck and good punting

xptdriver@hotmail.com

[ This Message was edited by: xptdriver on 2004-03-30 10:36 ]

xptdriver,

Firstly thanks for supplying your assessed market prices. It is very generous offer you provide.

I would like to ask you a question as to what your selection would be based on value if (using your example) the assessed prices versus the actual price (AP) were:

Coffs Harbour 29 March
Race 1 01:42 PM
Comfort Inn City Centre Hcp. Handicap Open
3 $1.5 Fire Bright AP $4.50
4 $4.7 Planet Lover AP $4.50
1 $6.2 Darcy D'Or AP $8.00
5 $8.3 Laminated AP$15.50

This is a typical problem that faces the 'value' punter assessing chance to price. I hope you can shed some of your experienced light here…

Thanks in advance.


Luckyboy

Computers can do anything you design them to do - if you don't tell them what to do - they wont do it, simple.

What about value judgements etc.

This can all be input if you're prepared to put the time in, which in the longrun saves time.

Why can't you put fields in your database for confidence rating out of 10 or how much you liked the run out of 10 or how lucky or unlucky the runner was etc.

Whatever you can think of can be input and assessed including variables.

You get out of a database exactly what you put in.


[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2004-03-30 11:51 ]

Yes xptdriver, I do think KABLAMMO is a very good horse and I also will be looking out for him when he shows good value. I had him rated at 11-2 in the first week of November, therefore qualified and a nice return. This race was put up as an example of value in overlays.

Many of my bets are also on favourites at short prices which I also consider as good overlays. NIELLO, which I rated at 10-9 qualified as another example.

Unfortunately, I do not and will not post free ratings on races I will be punting in.

Below is my ratings for the race you mentioned albeit after the event.

2:51PM WARWICK FARM Race 5
4 INDEED I DO 3-1 $ 4.00
1 SPECTRUM'S IMAGE 5-1 $ 6.00
10 GREIGACIOUS 13-2 $ 7.50

RATINGS WORK



[ This Message was edited by: White Turnip on 2004-03-30 12:11 ]

[ This Message was edited by: White Turnip on 2004-03-30 12:31 ]

I would like to also thank xpt driver & william for their free ratings,and also the forgotten free ratings provided by the owners of this site.All 3 have been invaluable to me,especially in the area of quinellas,trifectas,& doubles!I thank you all!As for White Turnip and his/her ratings,if you do not wish to post pre-race,which is fair enough and your perogative,please spare us the crowing and bragging post-race.As that immortal Irishman on this forum put it so succintly,there is no shortage of Monday posters!!When the ball is over,take off your frock and go home!

purpleheart68, I apoligise to you if you misunderstood what I was trying to say and considered it as bragging. That was never my intention. I was trying to give a valid and recent example of how ratings work.

purpleheart68, when you punt, you are not trying to take the TAB's money or the bookies money. You are taking the money of all the other losing punters. The TAB and bookies are mearly taking a cut before they divi up the money. Therefore, you are my competitor. Everybody can't win, there is no value in that.