Bets 133; Won 90; Lost 43
Units Staked: 128 units; Won 16.64 units; ROI 13%


Three from three last night so a good result.

Prices have been fluctuating more so than usual so it's best to keep an eye on the market. In the record I'll lower Groenefeld to $1.55 and Douchevina to $2.50 as their prices came in a wee bit. They could have been bet at higher prices but these only lasted an hour or so. Douchevina drifted as high as $2.70

May post extra 2 bets after 5Dimes and Pinnacle price up. I'd like a price on Groenefeld and Smashnova.

Garrigues v Frazier
Strasbourg: Round 2

An ageing hard-courter, Amy Frazier, meets an in-form clay-court specialist. Frazier has a negative clay record (24/27) and is coming off some ordinary form. She beat defending champion Schaul in a rain affected match but Schaul is also in the worst form of her career. Garrigues is the sort of player who gets everything back and she should have too much today.

Garrigues $1.80 @ Centrebet 1 Unit
(might be better prices later as poor margins at Centrebet)


Morigami v Peer
Istanbul: Round 2

A close match-up. Peer is a young up-and-comer who's relatively inexperienced on clay as she prefers it much faster. I feel a lot of her price is based on her reputation as opposed to her clay skills. Morigami was impressive in her Round 1 demolition of Lisa Raymond. The Japanese player is two-handed on both sides which seems to suit this surface. A close game but the edge is with Morigami.

Morigami $1.80 @ Olympic 1 Unit
(also available at smaller books. Might be better prices later but this is ok value)


Notes: I wouldn't advise backing Vaidisova at such short odds. However, she's definitely worth laying below $1.20 for a small sum at Betfair (you'll probably be able to lay her below $1.15). Vaidisova's has a big reputation but is inexperienced on clay. She's first up here while Abramovic came through qualies.

Bets 135; Won 91; Lost 44
Units Staked: 130 units; Won 16.39 units; ROI 12.6%

One win and one loss last night for a small betting loss.

Garrigues price came in slightly so I'll reduce her to $1.75 in the record.

Groenefeld v Vaidisova
Istanbul: QF

I rate the hard-hitting Groenefeld a better clay-court player than Vaidisova. For a start Groenefeld's has a 59/23 record on clay compared to Vaidsova's 8/3 record. She's also won several Challenger tournaments - something Vaidisova hasn't done. Nonetheless this should be a close game but Vaidisova's glamour factor and hardcourt reputation are skewing her price. She may of course win but the value is with the fiesty red-headed German.

Groenefeld $2.30 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit
(higher prices available at smaller bookies)


Garrigues v Douchevina
Strasbourg: QF

Prior to this tournament Douchevina was in woeful form and while she's had a couple of good results here, she doesn't deserve to be favourite as she is at some bookies. Garrigues is in good form, has more experience and better career results on clay.

Garrigues $2.09 @ Pinnacle 1 Unit

Not the slightest bit interested in WTA,but congratulations on your profit and congratulations on sharing your output.

Good effort with Garrigues Marco.

Took your advice last night, but tonight, unfortunately, stayed away.

Thanks Moeee and Mercurial - much appreciated.

Moeee - to be honest, I'm not a huge fan of tennis myself - women's or men's.

I ended up betting on the WTA because of the sports I tested on my computer model, women's tennis provided the best returns. I've also found it beneficial to specialise in one sport.

One thing with these tips is that they're only of any real value over the long-term. A 16-month history suggests the current 12-13% ROI is a realistic return so there's not much chance of being an 'overnight success'.

Good luck with the punt.

Marco, Great work. Do not sell yourself short. On your 16 months statistics, you are sitting on a potential cash cow.
If we bring your 16 month total bets of 1500 back to a 12 month average of 1125 bets you will soon see why.
At a paltry $500 per unit (playing one unit per play), you would generate $562,000 per annum in turnover. At a ROI of 12%, a profit of $67,500 would result.
Your high strike rate ensures that a "Risk of Ruin" is negligible if you started with working capital equivalent to 40 units or $20,000.
Now most of the "mugs" on this site would have to agree that $67,500 tax free per year is not too shabby at all. The problem with most on this forum is that they would not be prepared to put up the $20K in the first place and if they did, they would probably not have the intestinal fortitude to keep placing $500 on EVERY play especially after the inevitable "losing sequence" kicks in.
I have been lurking on here for a while and I must say it is refreshing to see posts of your calibre. I rarely post because I'm not into "free tips competitions", and tips like "I think such and such is a good bet" when there is no logical backup to the accompanying statement. I think I recall on the AFL forum someone said he thought a certain team would win the flag and then proceeded to tell us he had never seen them play. Give me a break!!
Your posts are truly logical and give the reader some insight into why you are picking a certain player.
Keep up the tremendous work.

Bets 137; Won 92; Lost 45
Units Staked: 132 units; Won 16.39 units; ROI 12.4%

One win and one loss last night. I'll reduce Garrigues' price to $2.00 in the record as it came in a bit. This makes last night a break-even affair (though those betting early would have made a small profit).

Smashnova-Pistolesi v Vaidisova
Istanbul: SF

I'll oppose 16-year-old Vaidisova again. Sure, she's proved me wrong twice this week but Smashnova is the best clay player Vaidisova has faced in her very short 9/3 WTA clay career. Smashnova's record is 106/72 which includes many wins over top-ranked players. Her best tournament performances have come on clay and she's beaten 3 players this week without breaking into a sweat. Vaidisova can of course win but her price is rather surprising. The value is definitely with Smashnova.

Smashnova $1.90 @ Centrebet 1 Unit


Garrigues v Dechy
Strabourg: SF

Garrigues has played well this week though today's game is a tough proposition. Dechy's a capable player but she is very inconsistent on clay. Her recent form has been rather patchy and Garrigues, while not having any big weapons, is frustratingly good at using the baseline to make opponents play a lot of balls. Dechy will need to be at her best - something she hasn't been in her games this week.

Garrigues $2.65 @ Centrebet 1 UNIT
(there's better prices available at smaller bookies)

Thanks Macca.

I will say one thing, punting, full-time or part-time, is a tough game and it's never quite as easy as we think. I appreciate the 12-13% is a solid ROI but past returns are no indictaion of future profits etc etc so I try to take a low key approach. In the end it's just another desk job - do the research, crunch the numbers.

Mind you, I still boot the TV every now and again when certain bets lose - but I'm getting better at it (losing that is, not kicking the TV)

Bets 139; Won 93; Lost 46
Units Staked: 134 units; Won 17.04 units; ROI 12.7%


One win and one loss last night for a nice profit. The prices are about right for the finals so no bets. Domachowska was almost a bet but not quite enough value. Venus should win in a canter (plus her draw at Roland Garros looks very favourable).

Back Monday - there should be a fair bit of action.

Roland Garros

http://www.rolandgarros.com/en_FR/index.html

One of the great tennis events of the year.

#1 Seed: Lindsay Davenport - The only Grand Slam she hasn't won. Clay definitely her worst surface. Very poor mover/footwork on the dirt. She's never won better than a Tier 3 title on red clay and she won't win this year.

#2 Seed: Maria Sharapova - Has never won a title on red or green clay. had the chance to go to Number 1 on two occassions in the past few weeks and blew them both. Her big-hitting style and lack of patience doesn't suit the surface. She won't win this year.

#3 Seed: Amelie Mauresmo - has the game to win, of that there's no doubt but does she have the mental tenacity. She's well known for her Grand Slam failures including Roland Garros - her home court and favourite surface. An outside chance this year.

#4 Seed: Elena Dementieva - Has played only 1 game on red this swing which she lost. Her infamous weak serve is less of a problem on clay but her mental fragility often sees her collapse in a heap. A finalist last year but this was more of a 'one-off so definitely worth opposing.

#5 Seed: Anastasia Myskina - defending champion beset by personal problems (ill mother) is in a horrible form slump. She's also carrying a nagging shoulde injury which has limited her once-effective serve. She will not win this year and is worth opposing.

#6 Seed: Svetlana Kuznetsova - Hasn't been at her best leading into the tournament and is more of an all round player as opposed to clay specialist. Will win a few but worth opposing later in draw.

#7 Seed: Nadia Petrova - has been in solid form during this clay swing and on her day she can beat the best players. Her one weakness is her mental nerve - like many of her compatriots she can surrender fairly meekly.

#8 Seed: Patty Schnyder - an excellent clay player who is in the best form of her career. Plenty of experience and she can go deep into the draw. Can she win? I doubt it. Her mental discipline is improving but she's prone to the odd shocker. A dark horse worth following.

#9 Seed: Vera Zvonareva - she's all over the place this season. Though winning a few recent games, she's been in a terrible form slump and hasn't won on red clay above Tier 3. Worth opposing as she will throw in a shocker sometime during this tournament.

#10 Seed: Justine Henin-Hardenne - an out-and-out champion on any surface . . . but even better on clay. She's won a couple of tournaments after an 8 month injury layoff and should win this. Not much value in the outrights but worth following later in the tournament.

#11 Seed: Venus Williams - just won the lowly rated Istanbul clay tournament and in good form over the past few weeks. Has a solid clay record and the ability but never seems to fare well at Roland Garros. An outside chance but she'll have to be at her best.

Notes: Kim Clijster's almost withdrew from the tournament and faces a tough draw. Carrying a knee injury so worth opposing later in the draw.

Serena Williams withdrew from tournament.


First round tips posted very soon.