and be odds on

Does the horse read all the stats and realise that it's supposed to win???

Too True Kenchar...not sure what to call that field -

Excremental Allowance?

Actually that works very well at the dogs, the dumping dog is the one to be on, except when it runs like what it left behind

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Hi!
That seems to be my problem too. I work everything out, neat as can be, but can't communicate it to the ignorant nags.
Now there is a challenge for someone!

HAY CHEE WHERE ARE YOU YOUR SKILLS ARE NEEDED.

Hi Sportz,

No, the horse doesn't know, but the bookie knows the value of the longterm stats and sets a price in his advantage. It's about getting value, not picking winners.

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C.P.
This always intrigues me, getting value and not picking winners.
What IS value, WHO determines the value.
So you look at a race you have a selection and you don't think it's value so you don't back it and it bolts in. This happens on 6 of your selections for the day.
You have another 6 selections on the day and they are all twice the odds you expect so you bet them BECAUSE THEY ARE VALUE and they all lose.
So you had 12 selections for the day, the value ones lose and the non value ones win.
The way I see it you had 12 picks for the day and 6 won and unless the 6 winners were all in the red you would have turned a profit on the day.
I know this value thing goes back to the Don Scott days, but I don't think the like of him will ever be seen again.
The other thing that was a looong time ago and things are a 1000% different today.
I'm not trying to be a smartie, just curious.
I repeat What IS value, WHO determines the value.
I look to turn a profit daily, if I achieve that I am a happy camper.
I might get a $2.5 place and the nag was $10 win, now that is BAD value for the place,
if it runs a hole I'm happy.
What I'm trying to say is I look at 6 races can't see anything, the 7th race comes up and something catches my eye and I keep watching and to me looks a good chance to run a hole. I start chasing odds, and I know to get VALUE it MUST be better than $3.25, the best I can get tabs or books is $2.5 so I leave the race, it runs a hole I miss out, when I could have been finished for the day.
Better than $3.25 would be a luxury but sadly it doesn't happen very often.
I agree when chasing odds sometimes I curse and splutter at what is offered, but there is not much I can do about it.

Cheers

Hi Kenchar,

This always intrigues me, getting value and not picking winners.
What IS value, WHO determines the value.


O.K. scenario a) I pick 20 winners on a Saturday, but due to the odds of the horses, I finish 5 units down - I got poor value, but still picked a lot of winners.

scenario b) I picked three winners and finished 6 units in front - I got good value, but picked few winners.

However, it's not just the result on the day, one can get lucky or unlucky on the day. It's the longterm result. The bottom line or profit determines whether you got value retrospectively. However, by using ratings or statistics one can forecast value to an extent. If either your ratings or statistics are accurate, you can make a judgement and only bet when value is available, therefore raising your profit.

So you look at a race you have a selection and you don't think it's value so you don't back it and it bolts in. This happens on 6 of your selections for the day.
You have another 6 selections on the day and they are all twice the odds you expect so you bet them BECAUSE THEY ARE VALUE and they all lose.
So you had 12 selections for the day, the value ones lose and the non value ones win.
The way I see it you had 12 picks for the day and 6 won and unless the 6 winners were all in the red you would have turned a profit on the day.

Understand what you're saying here, but a lucky day or unlucky day will always plague the punter, but it's about longterm profit and discipline, by sticking to the value horses, you'll turn a profit far more consistently than just one or two lucky days.

The other thing that was a looong time ago and things are a 1000% different today.

Yes, Don Scott's weight ratings are outdated now, but were a revolution at the time, until everyone including bookmakers started using them - that's when the value disappeared for the Legal Eagles. He was able to do so well, by looking at the handicapping of horses in another way and exploiting the value angle. (only betting when the odds were in his favour). I'm sure he saw many horses win, which he didn't back because of poor value. Then the value disappeared. The strike rate of his picks multiplied by the average win dividend did no longer exceed 100%.

I'm not trying to be a smartie, just curious.
I repeat What IS value, WHO determines the value.

I know you're not Kenchar, and never view your posts in that way.
Value is when you are able to get a better price than what you have ACCURATELY assessed via some method to win longerm.

You determine the value after having a lot of information that you have deemed accurate and has proven itself by previously returning you a longterm profit.

There can be 6 different people with 6 different methods, all rating different horses value. They are all correct if they all show a longterm profit. There's more than one way to make a profit, some are more lucrative than others.


What I'm trying to say is I look at 6 races can't see anything, the 7th race comes up and something catches my eye and I keep watching and to me looks a good chance to run a hole. I start chasing odds, and I know to get VALUE it MUST be better than $3.25, the best I can get tabs or books is $2.5 so I leave the race, it runs a hole I miss out, when I could have been finished for the day.


You're already deciding what's value by looking at the market. Maybe you have a gut feel and particular finesse for doing it this way. That's not to say you're not doing it the right way. If it works for you, then you are good at identifying value without form or ratings or statistics. Don't let anyone tell you it can't be done - you're doing it!

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Kenchar....i know this is a pointless question to ask...lol...but do you keep any records of your bets and your turnover and your strike rate.....to any normal punter i would say these are very important...and even you could benefit from keeping these records....

In a nutshell, you nailed it there Chrome.

Quote:"There can be 6 different people with 6 different methods, all rating different horse's value. They are all correct if they all show a longterm profit. There's more than one way to make a profit, some are more lucrative than others." End quote.

Winning battles isn't the goal, winning the war is.

I think punters shoot themselves in the foot a lot through betting on far too many poor betting races [compulsive punting]. If punters put as much effort into selecting the races to bet on as they put into selecting a runner to back, they would be well on the way to profitable punting. We can be our own worst enemy and the biggest barrier to long term profit.

Regarding race stats. Too much info. is useless info. All info. must be rated to be of any use and the more we use, the less accurate it's total often becomes.
There is an optimum amount of info for an individual. Juggling the value of 10 stats per runner is for some, all of these, some of these or none of these: Too much info, not enough info, just the right amount of info. We all have to work out our own requirements we can comfortably work with for our needs and style. What works for Jack doesn't necessarily work for Jill.