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![]() I should explain my strategy of limiting exposure a little more as it's not a case of "just bet less" or "you're just making it worse by giving back profit"
Assume the price I can back at is $2.60 Assume the price I can lay at is $2.70 Assume I lay the horse for $50.00 therefore if it wins I lose $85.00, or if it loses I win equal to my stake of $50.00. Now my risk is $2.70, but I want even money risk and no more. So I back it at $2.60 x $13.50. My outlay on this runner is now $63.50, if it loses I win $36.50 If it wins I lose $63.50 or odds of even money. Now assuming that 30% of favourites win and 70% lose, in the long run I win $653.00 for every 100 races wagered on. My profit is reduced but so is my exposure. So why not just lay for $63.50 instead? Because I stand to lose $107.95 everytime a winner hits and only win $63.50 each time a lay is successful. My profit is almost halved but so is my drawdown should a bad run of winners ensue. However, this will only work up to a certain price before it becomes unprofitable. Also assumed is that you are laying at a profitable price in the longrun. It might be that someone is thinking, why not just use lay amount of $36.50? Because I can turnover more money and get an extra reduction in commission which adds a lot more to the bottom line when bet size is three or four figures ![]()
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RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 420,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 30/06/2025 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg Last edited by Chrome Prince : 7th February 2007 at 02:35 AM. Reason: added scenario |
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