Sorry guys, I should explain my figures a little better.
The percentage I quoted was for the method I gave Partypooper.

Last start winners, favourite or second favourite, within 7 days, greater than 3yo's.

The strike rate is actually a bit lower than it could be, because of multiple selections in some races.

The raw strike rate for favourites which won last start is 33.95%
The raw strike rate for favourites which did not win last start, excluding first starters is 29.43%
The raw strike rate for first start favourites is 33.51%

But the POT or LOT is significantly different on each group.

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