Throw out Ratings, Form Guides & 97% of Punters
Don’t worry about class or form.
12 horses in a race, all at different stages of fitness, the “class” obvious in some, not so in others, all unique individuals with their unique idiosyncrasies, hoops who’ve just had an argument with the missus, the odd horse who is just feeling off colour, and then there’s the bad luck to come in the running. So ….. not always is the “best” horse going to win !! (that’s an understatement !! to say the least ….. )
Grab a horse that looks like it’s primed, or just about primed ….. forget the others in the race. Look at the individual horse !!! Don’t worry if it’s only won one race in a decent field where it looks to have NO chance. Only concern yourself with assessing if it’s going to run one of the best races of it’s life. It may be forst up with a report of doing well in trials, it may be fourth up with excuses in two of the races due to “failed because of track condition” or “vet examination”, or it may have simply improved at it’s recent starts but is “out of it’s depth. We’ve seen here many arguments on weight, times, class, fitness, blah, blah, blah (all good stuff) but where do the longshots come from? They come from the “form” that doesn’t give them a top chance in the race. Maybe they ran a good race beaten in excellent time, but flat the next start ?, maybe they were improving in country class races and brought to Metro but “out of their class”, maybe their last start had excuses but they’re lightly raced and un-noticed, maybe they’ve improved at each of their last few runs. They could realistically be a true 10 / 1 pop on ability, yet they’re dismissed and unloved, and their one bad run this time in had excuses, and they’re 40 / 1. How many times have you hit the form guide AFTER a race has been run and won by a longshot, only to “see” that it did have excuses, form, or some chance of (hindsight) winning. Sometimes decent horses win at long odds before their noticed.
My point is if you can pick when a horse is going to perform at it’s best, (back it and follow up next start too just in case you’re one run early), then forget what it’s up against and you’ll be ahead of the game.
Forget the race ….. Forget the form ….. Concentrate on finding a horse about to run it’s VERY BEST race this preparation, esp one who has excuses that may have been missed. Back it today and next start.
Last edited by Barny : 31st March 2011 at 07:33 PM.
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31st March 2011, 07:31 PM
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