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Old 23rd September 2012, 10:45 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 2,788
Wink Bets

On Friday Lord Greystoke asked me on the Laying Outsiders thread about betting the selections by taking the reverse Lay position, which I did for the later races that day.

However I did not list the results...here they are:

From Win betting there were 42 selections for a return of $41.10 (Unitab divvies) which is a loss of $0.90. I did not look at the earlier races so I don't know if the day was profitable. From the above 42 selections I also checked Betfair S.P. results (if no S.P. results shown I took the final price) and deducted 6.5% from the divvies whether or not the race was profitable, so the result shown below is even better had I only applied the commission to the profitable races.

The return was $49.48 which I believe is a POT of about 18%.

So I applied the same rules to yesterday's racing.

The rules are simple:
1) A minimum of 10 runners in the race,
2) All runners to have a minimum of 3 career starts.
3) Bet only the selections that are under $20 in my market.

There were 145 selections for a Unitab return of 151.80 which is a POT of about 4%.

Applying the same Betfair disadvantaged calculation as stated above, the return was $177.96 which is a profit of $32.96 which equates to a 22% POT.

As a matter of interest, Friday also showed a profit for boxed quinellas and trifectas, and a small loss for First Fours. However I did not check yesterday's results.

Hopefully I will be able to list today's selections.

Last edited by michaelg : 23rd September 2012 at 10:49 AM.
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