Hi EI,

Gee....even shocked myself predicting the results to June 03 :smile: ...The winner of the 03 Cox Plate will be.....oops better keep it a secret.

ok back to serious now. Even if Ejay didn't add the 12 months results to his check back to 99 it still doesn't make sense. If there were 400 or so selections in one year...the other two years then only had 370? Even if we look at Testa's 4 week sample, you can see that there are a stack of bets each week.

Either way, the results for the 39 months to June 02 are as shown 8.8% strike and 15% loss, longest losing run of 72...ouch.

I think your approach in identifying genuine overlays highlighted by your two examples is a fine example for anyone looking to learn to improve their chance of finishing in front in this game.

A colleague of a friend of mine makes a steady living from the punt by identifying horses that have the ability to win but are starting at greater than natural odds. Natural basically means as if he horse had an even chance of winning. If there are 10 horses in a field then natural odds would be 10-1. 12 horses in a field would be 12-1 and so on. In terms of identifying the ability to win he has his own process around speed and fitness but that closley correlates to the factor you hinted on EI, and that is CLASS! Class horses often bob up at fantastic odds despite other factors such as form, distance, barrier and weight saying they can't win. The brave punters who ignore these factors and concentrate on class continue to reap the rewards.