OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

#12

18th November 2008, 11:54 AM

jfc

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Location: Sydney

Posts: 402

Quote:

Originally Posted by stugots

kelly - full, 1/2, 1/4? which?

& probability of winning %, how does one calculate this magical figure? pulling it out of you know where seems a common enough method...

an example based on hammers numbers would be most welcome jfc

Full Kelly. Fractional Kelly is only for those who don't understand what Kelly means.

Hammers' observed strike rate of 31.3% is 305/976

statpages.org/confint.html

Feed that in to the confidence tool to find:

28.35% is the strike rate that you can be confident of exceeding.

Presto.

Last edited by Moderator 3 : 18th November 2008 at 05:56 PM.

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