7th October 2009, 07:36 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Sydney
Posts: 402
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by thorns
Thanks JFC, will keep on with it and see how I get on.
Going back to the Binomial confidence, if it passes that test after just say 150 bets, would you actually consider it to be proftable long term just from that, and have the confidence to put real money on it?
I was always under the impression (possibly mistaken) of needing a much larger sample to really be able to back with confidence.
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Number of winners is more relevant than number of runs, but the Confidence Tool is still superior.
Esentially you should start betting as soon as the system passes the confidence test - providing you are prepared to stop whenever it starts failing.
Imagine an extreme example where you need a S/R better than 20% to be profitable.
Then 3/3 would allow you to start betting.
But if you then lose, that 3/4 means you should stop.
While the Tool will correctly tell you when to switch between actual and theoretical betting, the vast majority of players would not be able to cope with such mood swings. Typically they prefer loss-chasing (under some fancy euphemism like "non-reducing" ) and ruining their lives.
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