Vortech has a good memory .....

Like everyone involved in this industry, your going to have your good times & your going to have your bad.

I am not bagging the idea, far from it buuuttt there was a time (& will be again just as sure as the sun rises tomorrow) that dear ol' Mr Corstens record read like a horror story.

Good luck with it.

__________________
"Now let me get this straight - Whatever I do don't bet this horse?"

No Risk, I probably wouldn't punt this way, never have, just put it out there for a bit of discussion. Interesting that Gai came up with the ledger square ??!

Disagree. If you're getting a 5.9% strike rate then at $17.00 plus a profit is made. However, a statistically meaningful sample would need to be many, many thousands. But it's a fact that many punters can't handle losing runs. Or bet too big so when that inevitable losing run happens they get wiped out etc. etc. etc. So I like to look at angles that most punters dismiss, including looking for ways to snare those massive winners. One angle that I've done well with is backing selected horses from wide barriers in fields of 15 runners and more in races that are not down the Flemington straight, like Koonoomoo $26.00 on Cup Day. I also like looking for horses at big odds that are first up like Jester's Girl $58.20 at Eagle Farm on Saturday and Reigning $41.00 at Warwick Farm 3 weeks back. I look at what a horse could do first up and only back it at massive odds with small bets so I can handle the runs of outs. So many horses improve from one campaign to another or are capable of an unexpected big first up run. Also because a horse has a poor first up record - no placings from say 5 starts doesn't mean it is no good first up. I look at stuff like the distances of those first up runs, how far beaten, luck in running, the track conditions, the length of the spell and the opposition it was racing against.

Barny yes, interesting, but break-even doesn't pay the bills last time I checked. I've got a couple of draws full of 'ledger squares'.

Following trainers or jockeys can be fun with a bit of luck but I would caution against treating it as anything other than that.

__________________
"Now let me get this straight - Whatever I do don't bet this horse?"

Barny
How would this go if you confined the runners to those ridden by Nash R ?

Hi SpeedyBen,

Here are the complete Gai/Nash stats:
NASH RAWILLER/WATERHOUSE
Runs: 915
Wins: 267
S/R: 29%
Profit: 21.7
P.O.T.: 2.4%

TOMMY BERRY/WATERHOUSE
Runs: 361
Wins: 81
S/R: 22%
Profit: 37.4
P.O.T.: 10.4%

If one did leave out interstate runners and the profits would most certainly improve.

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Good to see you're on the job TheSchmile A promotion might be in the offing.

God bless ya' Barny!

Me 14 kids could do with an upgrade from red beans and rice.

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Thanks for that. It's easy to see that the punters like Nash more than Tommy B but Gai rarely, maybe never, has a dud jockey on her horses.