This is the first I've seen of these predictions and they look impressive. though I'm not exactly sure how to "read"them.

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Got ta have a larf, eh?

There is a page that follows my predictions that tells you how to read the predictions. As to using them, I give the fair decimal odds for a home win, draw and away win. If a bookmaker offers a higher payoff than I suggest is the fair (break-even) value, you could take that bet. I suggest staying away from decimal odds above 5, as you don't win that often (less than 20% of the time).

I also estimate goal difference and total goals. Goals scored are so variable, it's hard to make money on goals betting though. There are many options in soccer, like draw-no-bet but those are more sophisticated and can be evaluated using my odds.

Ray

Hi Ray,

Just fount the page you mention, I should have scrolled down further.

Thanks, I appreciate you taking the time for the above explanation.

Mike.

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Got ta have a larf, eh?

Good, there were five draws in Week 5 and only one on week 6. That averages out about right. As we get closer to week 10, all the ratings due to odd early runs by weak teams and weak showings by strong teams are correcting, so that out matches are becoming more predictive. Bet conservatively for now.

Good luck with week 7,

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL week 7 pred.doc (33.0 KB, 599 views)

We had a good week 7, in that six of my seven favourites won matches that were not drawn.

Speaking of draws, there is a simple way to avoid losing money when your team draws, although you will earn less when your team wins. Here is how it works. Suppose the decimal odds for a draw is 4.0. If you put exactly ¼ of your bet on a draw and put the other ¾ of your bet on your team, then if the match is drawn, your get back ¼ of your bet times four, that is, you break even. If your team wins, you make money on the other ¾ of your bet. You only win ¾ of what you would have won if you had placed all of your bet on a win, but then you break even on a draw as a reward. Suppose the decimal odds for a draw is 3.0. If you put exactly 1/3 of your bet on a draw and put the other 2/3 of your bet on your team, then if the match is drawn, your get back 1/3 of your bet times three, that is, you break even. If your team wins, you make money on the other 2/3 of your bet. You only win 2/3 of what you would have won if you had placed all of your bet on a win, but then you break even on a draw as a reward. Of course, you lose your whole bet when the other team wins, but that was going to happen anyway.

Good luck with week 8.

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL week 8 pred.doc (33.0 KB, 594 views)

Thanks Ray 👍

Last week was the perfect time to give you the trick to avoid losing money when your team draws. There were 5 draws in 10 matches. I found five value (favourable) bets last week. One was to bet on Watford with a payoff of 4.9, which paid handsomely. The other four values bets were for Brighton, Burnley, Man U, and Newcastle, all of whom drew. So, your five bets would have resulted in breaking even on four and winning on one.

On the pages after my predictions and the team ratings, you will now find an explanation of what the page of predictions means, about how my rating system works and the trick for breaking even when your team draws (as I wrote last week).

Good luck with week 9.

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL week 9 pred.doc (35.0 KB, 569 views)

Every now and then the seemingly impossible happens. When I entered the 2-1 score by which Huddersfield had defeated Man U, I thought I saw smoke coming out of the computer. It recovered and finished the job, writing “Are you kidding me?”.

My favourite has won just 69% of the 68 non-drawn matches. I estimate that using my trick for breaking even on a draw, you would have a 10% profit on turnover for the last 4 weeks.

Good luck with week 10.

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL week 10 pred.doc (35.0 KB, 545 views)

The ratings have settled down nicely, as have profits. Last week, my favourites won 7 of the 8 matches that weren’t drawn, bringing my season accuracy to 70% for my favourites winning non-drawn matches. For the last five weeks, profit on turnover has been 13%, using the betting scheme I gave you which guarantees breaking even for a match that is drawn. The details are at the end of my predictions pages.

Good luck with week 11.

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL week 11 pred.doc (35.0 KB, 533 views)

Thanks Ray. Nice work.