Going to have to find a few more long shots to get a sniff Sportz!

Cheers LG

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The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

It's not impossible. They don't even have to be big longshots. Just have $30 on 2 winners around the $8-$10 mark and that will probably do. On Friday night, one of your picks Thronum looked all over a winner until grabbed late. If he had held on, you'd be in the top 4 now!

Odds of hitting two $10 chances are 1%. So its in the realms of doable. With a bit of an edge and skill you are probably closer to 2%-3% chance. So as Sportz says it is not impossible and worth a good shot at.

I notice all day long those 1-2% chance getting up.

If they are independent events, why multiply the probabilities if you don't mind me asking UB?

Cheers LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Its a standard probability calculation. The chance of two events occurring is the probability of the first event x the probability of the second event (which is only correct if you can correctly determine the probability of both events and one event is not related to the other event). For example the chance of raining today is 30% but the chance of you getting wet is 20%. That doesn't mean you have a 6% chance of getting wet if it rains today, its probably much higher.

I don't want to get into the law of large numbers vs the the law of averages (not the right thread) but its an interesting topic. The law of large numbers makes the calculation correct.

OAKBANK

R5-3 ZED EM 30W
R8-1 HEART OF A LION 20W-10P

ROSEHILL

R6-1 GAILO CHOP 20W-10P

ASCOT

R1-2 AT THE READY 20W-10P
R4-1 RED ORA 20W-10P
R5-8 ARCTIC STREAM 30W
R6-1 GEE BOSS 20W-10P

Thanks
William

Rosehill
R1 #1 Spin $5 win
R2 #1 One Foot In Heaven $20 win
R5 #6 Mongolian Marshal $10 win
R6 #1 Gailo Chop $25 win

Caulfield
R6 #8 Top Of The Range $10 win

Thanks Sportz
Good luck all

All $15 E/W thanks, Sportz:

MELBOURNE
R2 no3 Crystal Fountain
R3 no6 Sabotage
R4 no14 Miss Vixen
R5 no5 Aroha Mana
R6 no13 Addison
R7 no10 Fastnet Dragon
R8no4 Fastnet Tempest
R9 14 Highland Beat

ADELAIDE
R3 no3 Wasabi Bob

SYDNEY
R6 no4 Harlem

Moruya R2: 6. JACQUI CADENTE PLACE ONLY $25
Warracknabeal R6: 8. CARIBBEAN PEARL PLACE ONLY $25
Rosehill R6: 1. Gailo Chop PLACE ONLY $10

sydney

r.1 FUTOOH
r.2 ARBEITSAM
r.3 BURNING PASSION
r.4 DAYSEE DOOM
r.5 MONGOLIAN MARSHAL
r.6 AUVRAY, AMBITIOUS
r.7 UNFRORGOTTEN
r.8 ECUADOR
r.9 STONEBROOK

All $30 win, thanks for the comp, Sportz


Hoping for the big winners, but..., wishing you all good luck for the semis

__________________
At the feast of ego everyone leaves hungry