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  #51  
Old 23rd September 2019, 02:16 PM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evajb001
Hey walkermac,

I second what UB has said. Whilst we may not often reply to this thread its usually because you have great information and there's nothing constructive I can really add. As the field get whittled down some more I may add some bits and pieces but so far I'm more than happy to take in the information as an onlooker.

Appreciate your efforts!


I concur gentlemen. This thread is EXCEPTIONAL.

Cheers LG
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The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB
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  #52  
Old 24th September 2019, 11:54 AM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Cheers, fellas


A new Order of Entry came out yesterday: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...ry-september-23 (and was linked from Racing Victoria's Spring Feature Race Conditions page, so no need to stalk their Twitter: https://www.racingvictoria.com.au/t...ture-conditions).


Django Freedman is the only horse to have officially withdrawn so far, but more are on the way. Foremost of these is 2017 Cup placegetter Johannes Vermeer, who was also announced to be missing this Spring through injury.


There was a little movement in the Order:

  • Buckhurst has passed the first ballot clause and rockets to #26 following his placing in the Kilternan Stakes.
  • Attention Run and Our Candidate take up positions #93 and #94 respectively following their placings in the Newcastle Cup
Brimham Rocks didn't earn a penalty for his Naturalism Stakes win, though he did win ballot exemption for the Caulfield Cup. This leaves him currently at 75th in the Order and unlikely to make the Melbourne Cup field unless he wins either the Bart Cummings (5th Oct - unlikely as he's nominated for the Metropolitan in Sydney on the same day), Caulfield Cup (19th Oct), or Lexus Stakes (2nd Nov).

Finche similarly didn't gain a penalty for his win in the Kingston Town Stakes: being only 2000m, it wasn't an eligible race.

No overseas runners gained a weight penalty either, which will buoy supporters of Il Paradiso, Ispolini and Magic Wand, among others. Horses of this ilk will have to enter quarantine on Thursday to make the second shipment of internationals. The first shipment is set to arrive this Saturday.


Among them will be Gold Mount who recently had to process a name change with Racing Australia. He was still registered under his old name Primitivo.


Caliburn is also now known as Te Akau Caliburn. His owners are confident that he'll be a strong candidate for the Cups next year but are having a throw at the stumps in 2019. He's anticipated to next run in the Bart Cummings for a ballot exemption.


In major scratching news: Taylor Swift. Initially announced as Melbourne Cup Day entertainment, she soon withdrew citing a scheduling conflict. There was certainly some conflict in social media where she was part of a targeted campaign from both her fans with concerns over racing and gambling, as well as by animal rights activists. Racing Victoria have said they will refund any ticket purchases made expressly to see Swift.

Sportsbet have a market for who will be announced as her replacement: the $3 favourite is Daryl Braithwaite with John Farnham ($4), Delta Goodrem ($5.50), Meat Loaf ($7), the winner of The Masked Singer Australia ($8.50) and Jimmy Barnes ($10) being the other frontrunners.


In other entertainment news: Ride Like A Girl, the story of Michelle Payne's career and her win in the 2015 Melbourne Cup with 100-1 shot Prince of Penzance, will open in cinemas Thursday.

If you do happen to go watch, check to see if your theatre is part of the My Cinema network (https://mycinema.com.au/locations-2/). They've a competition running where you can win $5000: https://fs2.formsite.com/MyCinema/r...girl/index.html


Raheen House will have an Australian run ahead of the Melbourne Cup, per his trainer William Haggas. Plan A is the Caulfield Cup but, if he weren't able to make the final field, the Geelong Cup 4 days later is the backup. Raheen House was the $6 favourite in the Ebor Cup but could only manage a 9th placing 7L adrift of Mustajeer. Haggas says that he was lacking early pace which saw him running too far back. He also had concerns that the ground may have been too quick.


First declarations are due next Tuesday on 1st October, after which I'll probably start on some horse profiles.
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  #53  
Old 25th September 2019, 02:44 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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It looks like the quarantine issue for those making the second shipment won't be determined until shortly before the plane takes off.

From Coolmore comes news that Il Paradiso, Hunting Horn and Magic Wand have entered quarantine BUT they'll use this 2-week quarantine period to determine if/how many of them will actually be coming. Rob Archibald, Coolmore's racing manager and nominations, said a decision could be left to within days of the flight out of Ireland.

Also into quarantine is former Coolmore stayer Southern France who will be looked after by Ciaron Maher and David Eustace on arrival.


Melbourne Cup nominees racing over the next few days:


Wednesday
DIVANATIONYTPFBCFlemington - Race 8 - 5:05PM Wallace Handicap (1630 METRES)
Friday
BIZZWINKLE (NZ)78Benalla - Race 9 - 4:35PM Bet365 Benalla Gold Cup (2046 METRES)
HANG MAN (IRE)YTPFBCBenalla - Race 9 - 4:35PM Bet365 Benalla Gold Cup (2046 METRES)
DOUGLAS MACARTHUR (IRE)YTPFBCThe Valley - Race 6 - 9:00PM Ladbrokes JRA Cup (2040 METRES)
GLORY DAYS (NZ)39The Valley - Race 6 - 9:00PM Ladbrokes JRA Cup (2040 METRES)
MIDTERM (GB)79The Valley - Race 6 - 9:00PM Ladbrokes JRA Cup (2040 METRES)
MOSH MUSICYTPFBCThe Valley - Race 6 - 9:00PM Ladbrokes JRA Cup (2040 METRES)
QAFILA32The Valley - Race 6 - 9:00PM Ladbrokes JRA Cup (2040 METRES)
SPANISH STEPS (IRE)YTPFBCThe Valley - Race 6 - 9:00PM Ladbrokes JRA Cup (2040 METRES)
SULLY (NZ)91The Valley - Race 6 - 9:00PM Ladbrokes JRA Cup (2040 METRES)
TOP OF THE RANGE (NZ)90The Valley - Race 6 - 9:00PM Ladbrokes JRA Cup (2040 METRES)
WALL OF FIRE (IRE)YTPFBCThe Valley - Race 6 - 9:00PM Ladbrokes JRA Cup (2040 METRES)
YUCATAN (IRE)27The Valley - Race 6 - 9:00PM Ladbrokes JRA Cup (2040 METRES)
Saturday
TAVISTOCK DANCER (NZ)YTPFBCMornington - Race 4 - 1:55PM Penang Turf Club Trophy (2000 METRES)
EXEMPLAR (IRE)YTPFBCMornington - Race 7 - 3:45PM R.M. Ansett Classic (2400 METRES)
SELF SENSE82Mornington - Race 7 - 3:45PM R.M. Ansett Classic (2400 METRES)
VALAC (IRE)88Mornington - Race 7 - 3:45PM R.M. Ansett Classic (2400 METRES)
LADY YOUNGYTPFBCMorphettville Parks - Race 6 - 4:07PM AAMI Spring Carnival at Morphettville Oct 19 - Nov 5 Handicap (1400 METRES)
BLUE BREEZE (NZ)80Rosehill Gardens - Race 6 - 3:25PM JRA COLIN STEPHEN QUALITY (2400 METRES)
DABIYR (IRE)YTPFBCRosehill Gardens - Race 6 - 3:25PM JRA COLIN STEPHEN QUALITY (2400 METRES)
SCARLET DREAM51Rosehill Gardens - Race 6 - 3:25PM JRA COLIN STEPHEN QUALITY (2400 METRES)
SWEET THOMAS (GER)81Rosehill Gardens - Race 6 - 3:25PM JRA COLIN STEPHEN QUALITY (2400 METRES)
JUST THINKIN'YTPFBCRosehill Gardens - Race 8 - 4:45PM ANTLER GLOAMING STAKES (1800 METRES)
Sunday
HOMESMAN (USA)7Caulfield - Race 7 - 4:00PM Hyland Race Colours Underwood Stakes (1800 METRES)
HUMIDOR (NZ)YTPFBCCaulfield - Race 7 - 4:00PM Hyland Race Colours Underwood Stakes (1800 METRES)
KENEDNAYTPFBCCaulfield - Race 7 - 4:00PM Hyland Race Colours Underwood Stakes (1800 METRES)
SUPER TITUS (GB)YTPFBCCaulfield - Race 7 - 4:00PM Hyland Race Colours Underwood Stakes (1800 METRES)
THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ)YTPFBCCaulfield - Race 7 - 4:00PM Hyland Race Colours Underwood Stakes (1800 METRES)
TRAP FOR FOOLS24Caulfield - Race 7 - 4:00PM Hyland Race Colours Underwood Stakes (1800 METRES)
YULONG PRINCE (SAF)54Caulfield - Race 7 - 4:00PM Hyland Race Colours Underwood Stakes (1800 METRES)
TARWINYTPFBCCaulfield - Race 9 - 5:00PM Bass Strait Beef Handicap (1400 METRES)

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  #54  
Old 30th September 2019, 12:31 AM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Results from Melbourne Cup nominees the past few days:


Tuesday
RUNAWAY64T 1st of 9W FM24-Sep-191200m Soft6 OPEN-BT
Wednesday
DIVANATIONYTPFBC12th of 136.65LFLEM25-Sep-191630m Good4 BM78 $50,000@$4.4
Friday
HANG MAN (IRE)YTPFBC1st of 70LBLLA27-Sep-192046m Good3 BLLA CUP $125,000@$2.05
BIZZWINKLE (NZ)783rd of 70.6LBLLA27-Sep-192046m Good3 BLLA CUP $125,000@$11
SULLY (NZ)912nd of 90.1LM V27-Sep-192040m Good3 JRA CUP Group 3 $201,500@$9
MOSH MUSICYTPFBC3rd of 90.85LM V27-Sep-192040m Good3 JRA CUP Group 3 $201,500@$4.8
GLORY DAYS (NZ)395th of 92.2LM V27-Sep-192040m Good3 JRA CUP Group 3 $201,500@$15
TOP OF THE RANGE (NZ)906th of 93.45LM V27-Sep-192040m Good3 JRA CUP Group 3 $201,500@$71
YUCATAN (IRE)277th of 93.85LM V27-Sep-192040m Good3 JRA CUP Group 3 $201,500@$6
WALL OF FIRE (IRE)YTPFBC8th of 94.6LM V27-Sep-192040m Good3 JRA CUP Group 3 $201,500@$31
MIDTERM (GB)799th of 96.85LM V27-Sep-192040m Good3 JRA CUP Group 3 $201,500@$51
PATRICK ERIN (NZ)49T 9th of 9RAND27-Sep-191045m Good4 OPEN-BT
Saturday
VALAC (IRE)881st of 80LMORN28-Sep-192400m Good4 H WHITE Listed $140,000@$4
EXEMPLAR (IRE)YTPFBC2nd of 80.5LMORN28-Sep-192400m Good4 H WHITE Listed $140,000@$9
SELF SENSE825th of 86.2LMORN28-Sep-192400m Good4 H WHITE Listed $140,000@$19
DOUGLAS MACARTHUR (IRE)YTPFBC8th of 88.3LMORN28-Sep-192400m Good4 H WHITE Listed $140,000@$3.4
TAVISTOCK DANCER (NZ)YTPFBC3rd of 71.8LMORN28-Sep-192000m Good4 BM70 $50,000@$4.8
LADY YOUNGYTPFBC7th of 92.3LMRPK28-Sep-191400m Good4 MARES BM75 $50,000@$2.5
DABIYR (IRE)YTPFBC4th of 94.1LRHIL28-Sep-192400m Good4 CSTEPHEN Group 3 $161,000@$2.6
BLUE BREEZE (NZ)809th of 941LRHIL28-Sep-192400m Good4 CSTEPHEN Group 3 $161,000@$41
JUST THINKIN'YTPFBC4th of 124.5LRHIL28-Sep-191800m Good4 GLOAMING Group 3 $201,000@$3.2
Sunday
HOMESMAN (USA)72nd of 120.2LCAUL29-Sep-191800m Good3 UNDERWOOD Group 1 $752,000@$2.5
TRAP FOR FOOLS247th of 123.15LCAUL29-Sep-191800m Good3 UNDERWOOD Group 1 $752,000@$61
YULONG PRINCE (SAF)548th of 123.55LCAUL29-Sep-191800m Good3 UNDERWOOD Group 1 $752,000@$41
THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ)YTPFBC9th of 123.95LCAUL29-Sep-191800m Good3 UNDERWOOD Group 1 $752,000@$9.5
HUMIDOR (NZ)YTPFBC10th of 124.35LCAUL29-Sep-191800m Good3 UNDERWOOD Group 1 $752,000@$26
SUPER TITUS (GB)YTPFBC11th of 127.1LCAUL29-Sep-191800m Good3 UNDERWOOD Group 1 $752,000@$41
KENEDNAYTPFBC12th of 127.85LCAUL29-Sep-191800m Good3 UNDERWOOD Group 1 $752,000@$19
QAFILA325th of 113.35LCAUL29-Sep-191700m Good4 HCP $125,000@$4



The number listed is as per the latest Order of Entry. First declarations are due on Tuesday.
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  #55  
Old 30th September 2019, 01:11 AM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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The first shipment of Europeans arrived this weekend, including Melbourne Cup nomineees:
Mirage Dancer9
Constantinople11
Mustajeer15
Red Verdon33
Raymond Tusk34
Gold Mount35
Torcedor42
Prince of Arran48
True Self53
Raheen House55
Red Galileo56
Haky71
Cape Of Good HopeYTPFBC


On Tuesday, arriving from Japan are:
Lys de Gracieux2
Mer De GlaceYTPFBC


The second wave of internationals are in quarantine and set for arrival on October 12th:
Cross Counter4
Marmelo6
Southern France8
Master Of Reality10
Il Paradiso12
Latrobe13
Ispolini18
Magic Wand20
Hunting Horn21
Twilight Payment22
Downdraft47
Norway74


That means that there is NO:
Kew Gardens3
Dashing Willoghby23
Technician25
Buckhurst26
Morando28
Desert Skyline50
Barsanti72
Stivers76
Bin Battuta85
Western Australia89
Meiner WunschYTPFBC
Mountain HunterYTPFBC
EminenceYTPFBC
Mount EverestYTPFBC
South PacificYTPFBC
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  #56  
Old 1st October 2019, 05:57 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Down to 79 horses following First Acceptances:
https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...1st-acceptances
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  #57  
Old 1st October 2019, 09:35 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by walkermac
Down to 79 horses following First Acceptances:
https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...1st-acceptances
Correction: Racing Victoria made a mistake.

There's actually 80 left after First Acceptances: The Good Fight was omitted in error.

Updated First Acceptors list

Updated Order of Entry

Last edited by walkermac : 1st October 2019 at 09:39 PM.
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  #58  
Old 2nd October 2019, 10:00 AM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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walkermac, some of the ones i'll be taking a look at more closely soon include:

Steel Prince
Southern France
Constantinople
Il Paradiso
Ispolini
Raymond Tusk

They appear to be the ones that meet my early criteria the best, not sure if you've got any initial thoughts on those 6 runners. I'm thinking i'll start getting some futures bets on soon and make use of some odds boosts where I can as well. From memory usually a horse or two performs well in one of the leadup races and people get overly excited and sometimes crunch those odds in and they generally fall flat in the big race.

I also noticed there seems to be a lot of horses this year that have run in the melbourne cup previously, which rarely end up winning it a second time around.
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  #59  
Old 3rd October 2019, 01:33 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evajb001
They appear to be the ones that meet my early criteria the best, not sure if you've got any initial thoughts on those 6 runners.
To be honest I haven't done enough research for my opinion to hold much weight and I just haven't seen a performance yet that made me sit up and take notice like Cross Counter's Gordon Stakes win last year did, for example, or Rekindling in the Curragh Cup the year prior.

If the race were today and I had to make a snap decision I'd probably be most interested in Ispolini and Finche, then Master of Reality and Constantinople. But I'm prepared to throw them out entirely as I look deeper into each one as intended.

So we have a little bit of crossover with our respective early fancies.

I was very keen on Il Paradiso but find I have to keep making excuses: doubts on the strength of that Lonsdale Cup run (small field, half of them bled, Stradivarius said to only do "enough" for his wins), his unimpressive performance last race, not having won any blacktype... If all the positive presumptions you need to make are true, then he's a great chance for sure though.

I think the Ebor is very good form this year: the prizemoney was increased so the field was stronger and it was run in very fast time, if memory serves. Raymond Tusk was thought to have had an unlucky run but also doesn't have a good head-to-head record against a lot of other Cup candidates currently at longer odds.

Southern France would be challenging, especially given recent performances alongside Master of Reality and Cross Counter but I think is handicapped a kg or two heavier than ideal.

Steel Prince I would like to see against some internationals to line up form with but, with 8 wins locally appears to be pretty well known by the handicapper and much of his success has been during the leaner months of the racing season.
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  #60  
Old 3rd October 2019, 01:42 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Here are the Melbourne Cup nominees racing across this long weekend. Most attention will be on the Bart Cummings where the winner will earn ballot exemption. Probably the most interesting race though is the Turnbull Stakes.


Saturday
FINCHE (GB)24Flemington - Race 7 - 4:25PM TAB Turnbull Stakes (2000 METRES)
KINGS WILL DREAM (IRE)41Flemington - Race 7 - 4:25PM TAB Turnbull Stakes (2000 METRES)
LOOKS LIKE ELVISYTPFBCFlemington - Race 7 - 4:25PM TAB Turnbull Stakes (2000 METRES)
MR QUICKIE23Flemington - Race 7 - 4:25PM TAB Turnbull Stakes (2000 METRES)
ROSTROPOVICH (IRE)14Flemington - Race 7 - 4:25PM TAB Turnbull Stakes (2000 METRES)
SOUND (GER)35Flemington - Race 7 - 4:25PM TAB Turnbull Stakes (2000 METRES)
TRAP FOR FOOLS20Flemington - Race 7 - 4:25PM TAB Turnbull Stakes (2000 METRES)
VOW AND DECLARE36Flemington - Race 7 - 4:25PM TAB Turnbull Stakes (2000 METRES)
ALFARRIS (FR)YTPFBCFlemington - Race 8 - 5:05PM Lexus Bart Cummings (2520 METRES)
AZURO (FR)56Flemington - Race 8 - 5:05PM Lexus Bart Cummings (2520 METRES)
DAL HARRAILD (GB)48Flemington - Race 8 - 5:05PM Lexus Bart Cummings (2520 METRES)
ETYMOLOGY55Flemington - Race 8 - 5:05PM Lexus Bart Cummings (2520 METRES)
KING OF LEOGRANCE (FR)62Flemington - Race 8 - 5:05PM Lexus Bart Cummings (2520 METRES)
MUNTAHAA (IRE)22Flemington - Race 8 - 5:05PM Lexus Bart Cummings (2520 METRES)
SURPRISE BABY (NZ)47Flemington - Race 8 - 5:05PM Lexus Bart Cummings (2520 METRES)
TE AKAU CALIBURN (IRE)YTPFBCFlemington - Race 8 - 5:05PM Lexus Bart Cummings (2520 METRES)
WOLFE (JPN)YTPFBCFlemington - Race 8 - 5:05PM Lexus Bart Cummings (2520 METRES)
ANGEL OF TRUTH12Royal Randwick - Race 6 - 3:25PM SKY RACING ACTIVE HILL STAKES (2000 METRES)
OUR CENTURY (IRE)50Royal Randwick - Race 6 - 3:25PM SKY RACING ACTIVE HILL STAKES (2000 METRES)
VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ)16Royal Randwick - Race 6 - 3:25PM SKY RACING ACTIVE HILL STAKES (2000 METRES)
YOUNGSTAR32Royal Randwick - Race 6 - 3:25PM SKY RACING ACTIVE HILL STAKES (2000 METRES)
ATTENTION RUN (GER)63Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)
BIG DUKE (IRE)31Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)
BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB)52Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)
GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (FR)46Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)
GREY LION (IRE)49Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)
HUSH WRITER (JPN)58Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)
NEUFBOSC (FR)34Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)
PATRICK ERIN (NZ)39Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)
SCARLET DREAM40Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)
SHRAAOH (IRE)29Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)
SIR CHARLES ROAD45Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)
SUPERNOVA (GB)YTPFBCRoyal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)
THE GOOD FIGHT (NZ)YTPFBCRoyal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)
Sunday
BONDEIGER57bet365 Bairnsdale - Race 7 - 4:50PM Patties Foods Bairnsdale Cup (1600 METRES)
Monday
FAIRLIGHT (IRE)YTPFBCWarwick Farm - Race 6 - 4:20PM ANZ BLOODSTOCK NEWS HANDICAP (2130 METRES)
MASTER OF WINE (GER)YTPFBCWarwick Farm - Race 6 - 4:20PM ANZ BLOODSTOCK NEWS HANDICAP (2130 METRES)
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