world cup pool-d

australia +3.5 $1.91 v wales
australia v wales $1.85

Market update
New Zealand $2.32
England $5.75
South Africa $5.80
Wales $11.50
Ireland $16.50
Australia $23
France $40
Scotland $200
Argentina $240
Japan $251
Italy $1001

Others $2001 & over

world cup pool-a

japan +7.5 $1.61 v scotland
japan v scotland $1.67

Not really surprised Japan through to the final 8
15 players in their 31-man squad having qualified on the basis of three-year residency
They've done their homework

I was curious what would happen when I posted fair odds for the 40 group-phase matches of the Rugby World Cup before game 1, using the World Rugby Ratings and their method of getting the probability of winning. After I posted, I looked at the then bookie odds posted for all 40 matches. I only found 6 value bets, one of which got cancelled by the typhoon. Of the remaining 5, 3 cashed for a 63% profit on turnover. The 3 profitable matches were when Japan beat Scotland, France beat Argentine and Wales beat Australia. The losses were when South Africa lost to New Zealand and the USA lost to Tonga.

I just took the updated ratings posted by World Rugby. Here are what the fair odds would be, using the World Rugby Ratings and adding 3 points to Japan’s rating for the World Rugby home advantage.

England 1.37 versus Australia 3.71
New Zealand 1.33 versus Ireland 4.04
Wales 1.14 versus France 7.97
South Africa 1.87 versus Japan 2.14

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Thankyou Ray

Market update
New Zealand $2.22
South Africa $4.70
England $6.40
Wales $12
Ireland $24
Australia $32
France $44
Japan $67

england -4.5 $1.53 v australia
england v australia +10.5 $1.91

new zealand -9.5 $1.91 v ireland
new zealand v ireland +15.5 $1.53

wales -5.5 $2.00 v france
wales v france +7.5 $1.91