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#131
3rd November 2019, 03:21 PM
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Quote:
The only selection which tops every 'system' or filter I draw on. Next best is .. DOWNDRAFT (IRE) Best of luck gents and hats off to W Mac for another outstanding MC thread. Cheers LG
__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB 
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#132
3rd November 2019, 05:25 PM
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.jpg) Mirage Dancer
5yo B Horse
Frankel (GB) - Heat Haze (GB) [By Green Desert (USA)]
17s: 4-5-4
I'm gonna do it! 10 more profiles to go! ....10?! I'm gonna try and do it!
Mirage Dancer was one of the 5 shortlisted by Aspro's system but was a rung below those picked per 'the system' here. He lost two points from his tally: he wasn't under $16 in his last race - he was exactly $16; and he isn't less <= $21 in the Melbourne Cup. Those two factors can be quite broad, I think it was Rostropovich last year that was discounted on account of starting at $31 in the Cox Plate: it wasn't his fault he was up against Winx though! If you can determine that the preceding race wasn't typical or that the market had misread the actual chance, then you could argue about letting that one slide.
And the starting price is a nice filter, but 22.4% of those who finished in the first 4 this century had a starting price > $21. (22.8% for top 3; 26.3% for top 2; 10.5% for first). ...plus you feel smarter if you were to pick the runner contrary to market expectation.
In the Caulfield Cup, among eventual Melbourne Cup starters, both Mirage Dancer and Sound appeared to perform contrary to the market expectation. The former finished a 1.2L 3rd, with the next highest odds-finisher (Hartnell) two lengths back in 7th. Mirage Dancer finished in front of 5 other horses who were at lower odds.
I'm pretty sure the market had him wrong. Best Solution won the Caulfield Cup in 2018; who'd he beat by 0.5L in July of that year at equal weights? Mirage Dancer. Who'd Best Solution beat by a neck in his next race? Sound. The following race Best Solution beat Defoe by a neck and Defoe has been one of the good formlines of this season, during which Mirage Dancer also ran well against him.
Mirage Dancer's run against Defoe was in the Hardwicke Stakes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZ4ZQzDeuhg. He held on well for third and also beat Southern France by 7L.
Next up was the Princess of Wales's Tattersalls Stakes, where he finished second to Communique: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bA0HykJTMUc. That horse would go on to contest German Group 1's, including finished ahead of Old Persian in his next.
His final UK race was in the Glorious Stakes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hESsYO5tajo, where he finished 2nd again (and 12 lengths ahead of Prince Of Arran). The winner Desert Encounter won his next two races in England (Group 3s) and then won a Group 1 in Canada.
From there it was off to Australia and into the care of Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young. His first start for them was the Caulfield Cup: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esSOa1T_6M4. Both Mer De Glace and Vow And Declare came from the rear, whereas Mirage Dancer was midfield or slightly better. When the pressure came on, there was a line of horses in the way and he had to wait for a run. He was brushed with 200m to go and had to balance up again before he sprinted on well. Mer De Glace will carry 1kg more in the Cup following his weight penalty, whereas everyone else was at their Cup weight.
There were a couple who looked to have slightly more finishing speed than he did, but his first up stats are mixed so he may have needed the run. He has a good record second up.
2400m is the furthest he's run and it's where he has the bulk of his wins (3) and placings (6) come from (10 starts): though the bulk of those are in small fields. His Dosage Profile is (2-6-15-7-0), with DI 1.07 and CD 0.1; that looks like he should be fine over the Cup distance. His Conduit Mare Profile is (4-7-3-12-7) with Speed 11, Stamina 19, Index 0.62 and Triads (14-22-22). That looks quite similar to Prince Of Arran's profile, with slightly more Stamina and a tad less Speed.
I don't reckon he'll win but I think he's a good shot at getting a place. At $34 Win Odds he'd also surely be a half-decent price to finish top 10, for which I think he's a shoe-in.
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#133
3rd November 2019, 05:59 PM
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Im enjoying the reading of the profiles. Keep them coming.
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#135
3rd November 2019, 09:19 PM
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 Il Paradiso
3yo CH Colt
Galileo (IRE) - Famous (IRE) [By Danehill Dancer (IRE)]
8s: 2-2-2
Looking to reproduce the result of the past two years, it's a 3yo candidate from the Northern Hemisphere (considered a 4yo in the Southern). Following the victories of Rekindling and Cross Counter, a review was held regarding the handicapping of this type. The result of the review was that their benchmark was increased by 1kg. Cross Counter carried 51kg last year, Il Paradiso will carry 52.5kg this year (i.e. not only was the benchmark weight bumped up 1kg, but he is adjudged as being 1 rating point/0.5kg better; I don't think that's the case, I think it just goes to show that Cross Counter wasn't carrying near enough the weight he should have been).
Il Paradiso is still quite well in at the weights though. Cross Counter's current rating is 118, meaning that with his Official Irish Rating of 111, he should be carrying 3.5kg less (presuming that their ratings are accurate for performances over 3200m). He's carrying 5kg less; i.e. he has 1.5kg in his favour.
What he doesn't have in his favour is his sire. 21 Galileos have crossed the finish line this century and while there have been two seconds and a third, the bulk of his progeny finished outside of the top 10. Is it just bad luck? His stats for runners to winners over 3200m are quite similar to his best distance ranges: 1600m and 2400m. The ones that appear to do well here though are those with higher Stamina figures. Perhaps the style of the Cup is different to those contested over the same distance in Europe and Galileos need a little extra here... The 3 Galileo placegetters each had Stamina figures of 19 or above, and were priced at under $16. Sir Johannes Vermeer in 2017, and Purple Moon and Mahler, both in 2007.
Ispolini has a Dosage Profile of (4-11-21-12-0), a DI of 1.13 and CD of 0.15 (i.e. 3150m is best, approximately). His Conduit Mare Profile is (3-10-1-9-10) with Speed 13, Stamina 19, Index 0.57 and Triads (14-20-20) - i.e. like a less speedy Johannes Vermeer. So he has a good Stamina figure for a Galileo and is currently at $14. He fits the profile....
Greg Carpenter has admitted that Ispolini was difficult to handicap. There haven't been many runs and there hasn't been consistency. He's basically been rated on his last 3 races.
The first of these was a 2 mile handicap where he beat 2nd by 12 lengths: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qu92ZGNakyg.
The next was the Lonsdale Cup, another 2 mile race but this time at Group 2 level: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrAn2_XW_Xg. Stradivarius wins relatively narrowly, as per his style, with Dee Ex Bee finishing a nose ahead of Il Paradiso. This was his Cup qualifying race and complicating how to judge it: there were only 4 starters, both Dee Ex Bee and Falcon Eight bled afterward, and Stradivarius only ever does enough to win - he never really smashes the field. Racing Post does indicate that it was run 1.5s faster than normal, but that's about all you can go on.
There are different rules regarding bleeding in the UK, so both Dee Ex Bee and Falcon Eight were back a month later in the Prix du Cadran over 4000m. The former must have felt pretty good, finishing 1.5L from Holdthasigreen and Call The Wind; both of those having form around Marmelo both this year and last.
Finally, wikipedia says that: in a 2005 study, horses finishing races with grade 4 EIPH (i.e. bleeding) were on average 6 metres behind those finishing with grade 0. It's only through repeated bouts where horses can get decreased lung function. Given that the race was 1.5s faster than normal and you'd only expect Dee Ex Bee to perform 3 lengths or so worse than he would regularly, then it's still a pretty good run. Particularly for a 3yo in only his 7th start.
His final race was the Group 1 St Leger Stakes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VAy70lZxwvk. Il Paradiso did a fair bit of early work. Western Australia shot out to a big initial lead and Il Paradiso marshalled the chasing bunch. He moved to the lead at the 3 furlong mark and looked about to go on with it, but weakened soon thereafter. I recall writing at the time that it looked pretty clear the jockey was expecting more to be in reserve (NB - a different jockey was on board than was with Il Paradiso on his 3 preceding runs; the new jockey has 5 black type wins, the old - Wayne Lordan - has won over 100 black type races and will be riding him in the Cup).
Logician was the winner and there's no shame losing to him: that was his 5th win from 5 starts. Given the ratings of the placegetters, Il Paradiso was still just 2 lengths off where his rating said he should be.
And now for the bad news: he's the only runner in the final field to have not won black type. He also had the least amount of eligible winnings of all runners after third acceptances once Raheen House dropped out. ....but that's the price of dodging the handicapper.
I've talked myself back around. He'll have the blinkers on. Aidan O'Brien sold Constantinople and not him. I don't think he'll win but he'll go very close. Let's go wild and crazy (and eschew 'the system') and say that he'll come 2nd.
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#136
3rd November 2019, 11:34 PM
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 Finche
5yo CH Gelding
Frankel (GB) - Binche (USA) [By Woodman (USA) 1983]
14s: 4-1-3
Ahead of last year's Geelong Cup, Finche's Australian debut, I picked him as a likely Melbourne Cup candidate. I thought he had mixed it with some good Europeans, that he was handicapped fairly, and that he looked as if he would handle the distance. He ended up finishing 3rd in the Geelong Cup (giving away 5kg to those ahead of him) before going on to the Melbourne Cup and finishing in 4th position. He ran at the front of the pack for much of the race, took the lead in the straight and held on to finish just 3.5 lengths from Cross Counter. He stayed on in Australia following the race and enjoyed a long break before resuming again in September.
His first run was over a mile, a distance he hadn't contested since his race debut. This was to be a very different preparation than his inaugural Cup tilt. His new trainer, Chris Waller, was endeavouring to follow a Bart Cummings-style preparation.
“I'm short [of the 10,000m] with Finche and a touch off it with Youngstar in terms of races, but if you add in trials we get there.
“I know my horses get better with racing like [Bart's] did and we get [to the Melbourne Cup] with them ready to peak.” “I didn’t over-analyse it last year but I knew he would be a stronger horse in 12 months' time,” Waller said. “He has had the benefit of a year in the warmer weather and his preparation is what we wanted. “If I have a shadow of doubt, it is just the way I train horses for these really big two mile [races] where it is a test. I might be a little bit soft on them but hopefully we get away with it.” Finche’s preparation adds up to 8000m on racedays, with his two barrier trials taking the figure to 10,200m. I'm not a racehorse trainer; my background is in track and field. If any elite athlete is training for an event like they did in the 1990s, let alone the 1970s, they are doing it wrong. I don't see how getting a horse fit and fast is magically exempt from the progress that has been made in every other sport. I suspect there is far too much mythology associated with racing for it to be wholly logical, particularly when it comes to Bart Cummings and the Cup. Finche shifted to Victoria for the 2000m Turnbull Stakes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe-vi1yMHcA. This was his first Group 1 placing, coming a narrow 2nd to Kings Will Dream. Finche began well and had a good trip in fourth place. Per the Race Notes: he improved nicely at the home turn, challenged coming to the 200m and kept fighting strongly for second, beaten a short head. Also in the field was Vow And Declare (4th 1.5L - 1.5kg better in the Cup), Sound (7th 3.75L - same) and Rostropovich (9th 4.5L - carries 1kg more, somehow). On to the Caulfield Cup! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esSOa1T_6M4 Finche drew a wide barrier and was caught outside as he once more travelled towards the pointy end. He moved up at the home turn, took the lead at the 300m and then held on for 5th - as several horses ran past him. He doesn't look to have the speed necessary to keep challengers at bay. His awkward running style certainly wouldn't conserve energy; at the end of this race it looked like he was jumping up and down on the spot. On the plus side: he carries the same weight as he did in the 2018 Cup. Those who finished in front of him last year do worse: Cross Counter (+2.5kg), Marmelo (would have been +1kg) and Prince Of Arran (+1kg). The danger is a new crop of lightly-weighted internationals running him down. Finche's Dosage Profile is now (6-7-19-14-0) with a DI of 0.96 and a CD of 0.11. That CD looks like 3200m is ideal. His Conduit Mare Profile reads as (3-8-4-13-6) with Speed 11, Stamina 19, Index of 0.62 and Triads of (15-25-23). It looks like even longer is preferred. He's drawn barrier 4, which is perfect for him given where he'll want to be once the field resolves itself. He looks to be going as well as he was last year with the exact same weight. But....I think it unlikely he'll win; I think it unlikely he'll place. I reckon he'll be somewhere between 4th and 8th again. I'm yet to see him hold off a quality runner in the straight and this field has plenty.
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#137
4th November 2019, 11:56 AM
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 Master Of Reality
4yo B Gelding
Frankel (GB) - L'ancresse (IRE) [By Darshaan (GB)]
12s: 3-1-2
Frankie Dettori's latest bid for a first Melbourne Cup win will be from on board Master Of Reality. According to today's Herald Sun, Frankie texted Lloyd Williams a picture of his trophies from the Ascot Carnival and said "Melbourne Cup, please. I’m coming to ride Master Of Reality". Frankie was riding Stradivarius in the Gold Cup when Master Of Reality @ $67 finished within one length. He figured that any horse who could match it with Stradivarius at level weights and was a set for a start in the Melbourne Cup was the horse for him. ...but isn't there a saying that jockeys are the worst form experts?
As has been noted a number of times, Stradivarius never puts a distance on the other horses in the race. Up until being beaten by a nose by Kew Gardens in his last outing, he had put together a string of 10 consecutive victories; half of these were within one length, with all but one within two. His are also psychological victories over the other horses. He trails his opposition, passes them and then stays just far enough ahead to remind his chasers that they're still in the same race and won't win.
A far better guide to Master Of Reality's form is that he was beaten by a nose by Dee Ex Bee into 3rd and finished 0.75L in front of Cross Counter: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IB69t2__p9w. The Gold Cup is a real stayer's contest, held over 4000m though. Foreign raiders here have said that European horses with form over 2400m seem to fare better in the Melbourne Cup. They tend to have more speed in the arsenal, which may be more effective given the stop-start nature of our race.
One of the most appealing angles of Master Of Reality is his weight: he carries 2kg less than his rating says he should. His Official Irish Rating is currently 118 - equal highest in the field, level with Cross Counter - a mark he reached following this Ascot Gold Cup run and maintained during two subsequent Irish performances. The official rating is meant to capture the ability of a horse over its most suited distance range. Effectively, Greg Carpenter is saying that Master Of Reality is 2kg/4L worse over the Melbourne Cup trip.
Looking at his pedigree stuff, Master Of Reality is the dourest Frankel in the field. His Dosage Profile is (1-3-14-8-2) with DI 0.65 and CD -0.25; there is very little in the way of Brilliance figures and he has the lowest CD in the race. That's an indication that he's best suited at further than 4300m, so no wonder he did well in the Ascot Gold Cup. His Conduit Mare Profile is (3-6-4-12-7) with Speed 9, Stamina 19, Index 0.53 and Triads (13-22-23); again best suited at above 4000m. He's similar to Almandin and will want the race to motor along to an extent such that any fast finishers from the tail of the field will have their sprinting bursts dulled and their passage potentially blocked by fading horses.
His "shorter" distances this campaign were all over the 2800m. He began his series of runs in April with a neck victory over Mustajeer. His starting odds were $34, reflecting a 3yo season that was - kindly - mixed; gelding worked. Also behind him in the field were Southern France and Twilight Payment: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGy9lOOH3r8. They all finished within 2L and were within 0.5kg of each other, as will be the case tomorrow. The bulk of the run is missing, but per comments, he lead the race for the duration.
Twilight Payment flipped the script in their next race, beating Master Of Reality by 5 lengths. He was unable to take the lead, and could only keep on at the one pace inside the straight: https://youtu.be/KqvcGmcA77o?t=172
Next was the Ascot Gold Cup and then a short break before the Irish St Leger Trial Stakes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ftKx9Ym-z0. It was the turn of Southern France and Downdraft to beat him after Master Of Reality lead once again and ran on one-paced, again, in the straight to finish a 4-length 3rd.
His final European race was the Irish St Leger itself: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUgzyvSbDrA. He lead in the early stages before Search For A Song, the only 3yo filly in the race, was upset with the pace and sped off to head them all. She put on a distance that the field couldn't run down, with Master Of Reality finishing in a knot of Melbourne Cup candidates (Southern France, Cross Counter, Latrobe and Twilight Payment) 4 lengths back. Once again, he made no impression in the last couple of furlongs and ran on one-paced.
From his #1 barrier he won't have much further to run, but he may have to work quite hard to be find a position in the first bunch, where he prefers it. Even were he to get that spot, that some runner in the huge field couldn't run him down in the straight - given his lack of speed - seems quite unlikely. I think he'll finish somewhere from 4th-14th (the wide range is getting a position vs on the fence mid-field).
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#138
4th November 2019, 01:32 PM
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 Sound
6yo BR/BL Horse
Lando (GER) - Sky Dancing (IRE) [By Exit To Nowhere (USA)]
24s: 7-2-1
It all went wrong for Sound/Sound Check last season. His final race before departure was the Group 1 Grosser Preis von Berlin. He finished just a neck behind Best Solution, an Irish-bred globetrotter that would soon join him in Australia for a Cups tilt. Best Solution would go on to win the 2018 Caulfield Cup and - despite a 2kg swing in his favour and the race being over the same distance - Sound proved wisely unloved in the betting, finishing 10 lengths back in 12th position.
Aside from one trip to Italy, all his racing was in Germany. Perhaps the travel didn't suit. It didn't go any better for him in the Melbourne Cup. He travelled among the frontrunners for much of the race but was taken via the carpark on the turn, dropping 15 spots over a couple hundred metres. He ended up 18th after not running on in the straight.
He stayed on in Australia after last year's Cup and endeavored to regroup for an Autumn campaign. His lead-up races weren't encouraging and the end result wasn't any different: a meek 8th in the Sydney Cup. No other horses from this year's Sydney Cup have made the Melbourne Cup field. Sound has only qualified by virtue of his performance in Berlin last year.
He's started at over $100 in each of his three races so far this season. The first two were over unfavourable distance and the latest was the Caulfield Cup. Though the 10th place finish looks disappointing, he was only 4 lengths off Mer De Glace and was severely checked in the straight: https://youtu.be/esSOa1T_6M4?t=120. He was in the front wall of horses around the turn, but being widest he lost a length. Into the straight he was then sandwiched between Vow And Declare and Red Verdon, losing all momentum and getting shot out the back. We never actually got to see what he could do and - all things considered - he went pretty well. His run looked as good as Mustajeer's, who is at $15 tomorrow while Sound languishes at $100.
On that scant claim though, it's hard to overturn the burden of evidence of all his poor runs in Australia. His trainer contends that his Autumn form is misleading, citing a poor ride that would have otherwise seen him come 2nd, and feet issues which meant that each race preparation was rushed. He was confident coming in to Spring that Sound would show his true colours.
According to his figures, Sound has a Dosage Profile of (2-1-7-0-0), with DI of 1.86 and CD of 0.5. That gives a preferred distance indication of 2100m. His Conduit Mare Profile hints at a a little further: (3-6-5-8-8) with Speed 9 and Stamina 16. His Conduit Index is 0.59 and Triads are (14-19-21). I'd say that's a good 3200m profile. His record over 2800m+ (even including his heretofore dire Australian form) is pretty good: 3w-1p from 7 starts.
Hoping for the best and expecting the worst sums things up. I certainly think he should be shorter than $100 but given all the black marks I'd anticipate him finishing somewhere in the teens rather than at the top.
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#139
4th November 2019, 03:15 PM
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 The Chosen One
4yo B Horse
Savabeel (AUS) - The Glitzy One (AUS) [By Flying Spur (AUS)]
16s: 5-2-0
The Chosen One had a big Summer and Autumn, running 8 times over 15,500m of racing. The bulk of that was in New Zealand where, following a truncated 3yo Spring campaign that started with two victories on debut, he had some up-and-down performances that corresponded with the size of the prize of offer.
Following a win in the Group 3 2000m Manawatu Classic (http://www.racingreplays.co.nz/medi...330MTU04_BB.mp4) Murray Baker tried his luck in the Australian Derby. Per his Jockey Blake Shinn: "I thought he ran a tremendous race, I had to take the horse back to negate the wide draw, they didn’t go that fast, he made a searching run from the 650m and he hit the line strongly.": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktwlH_Z6WPQ. He fell 3.7 lengths short in that Australian Derby, but it worked a treat in his next race with victory in the Frank Packer: "We made another searching run on him but we were coming back 400m in trip so I was mindful of that. He did the job nicely, he is a lovely horse."
He spelled back in New Zealand before returning to Australia this Spring. He began in the Feehan Stakes and continued into the Underwood, each of them too short for his pedigree and the running style he earlier saw success with.
It's his next 3 races which are the telling ones. The Chosen One won the Herbert Power, beating Prince Of Arran by 0.5kg and earning ballot exemption for the Caulfield Cup: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnQEfIIoKH4. It was back to script: running towards the rear and then putting on a burst in the finishing straight. The leading pair put 3 lengths on the rest of the them, though they will meet each other in the Cup with The Chosen One 1.5kg worse off. This victory also meant that he passed the first ballot clause and picked up a 0.5kg penalty.
Drawing barrier 18 in the Caulfield Cup (as he has for the Melbourne Cup) he was the widest runner and loped over to be at the tail of the field, trailing Mustajeer and Mer De Glace. When it came time to push the button he didn't have the pace needed to match these higher class horses and finished a 4-length 9th: https://youtu.be/esSOa1T_6M4?t=104.
I don't know why he elected to run in the Hotham Handicap. By the time all the chips fell, there was no way he could be pushed out of the Melbourne Cup field. It seems a very odd decision to choose to exhaust your horse a couple of days out from the Melbourne Cup. To run tomake the field is understandable, but...*shrug*. His 5th place finish, 8 lengths adrift, may be some indication that he tanked it, but the Steward's Report has it that he was unsettled: needing resaddling at the barrier and having to be restrained over the early and middle stages.
It's certainly not the best form to carry into the Cup and there must be some query over the distance, given only one success > 2000m and otherwise plenty of disappointment.
His Dosage Profile is (6-15-19-2-4) with DI 1.97 and CD 0.37; so around 2400m - or slightly longer, given the 4 Professional points - looks ideal. He also reaches that distance without sacrificing much at all in the speed categories. His Conduit Mare Profile is (6-4-0-8-8) with Speed 10, Stamina 16, Index 0.67 and Triads (10-12-16). Around the 2800m mark looks ideal. The 6 in the Brilliant position also agrees by this measure that he has some toe. In the final field, very few have as many pointers of speed, and even less maintaining their aptitude over distance.
I think this might all be a year too early though. I don't understand the Hotham run at all and can't see how that puts him in peak condition. Given his race style he'll have to be ridden for luck, so why lessen your odds? There are a few timelines in our multidimensional universe where he trots to the running rail from the start, coasts behind the field running which are going at a brutal pace and then takes a shortcut up the inside to, without encountering any interference to just triumph on the line....but I can't see it happening in this one. The current odds ($67) are pretty accurate; should finish back in the late teens to last range.
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#140
4th November 2019, 04:26 PM
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 Youngstar
5yo B Mare
High Chaparral (IRE) - Starspangled (IRE) [By Danehill (USA)]
21s: 4-1-4
I did last year's profile on Youngstar ahead of her Caulfield Cup performance. I queried whether she'd even go on to the Melbourne Cup, given that her trainer Chris Waller had said Caulfield was her grand final. Well, one of us is some kind of genius after I wrote "[w]ith a light weight in the Melbourne Cup I could imagine her jetting through on the line for 4th or 5th." (Hint: it's Waller, not me: she did what I said but finished 6th). Not bad for an afterthought...
She's gone up just 0.5kg for this renewal: getting back 0.5kg from Prince Of Arran and 6.5kg from Cross Counter (sort of: it's more like 2.5kg when taking his natural aging into account) among those who finished in front of her last year. For some reason, she's 0.5kg worse off with respect to the horse that finished immediately in front of her, Finche.
Per her trainer, she's since put on 20kg of muscle. In hindsight he believes he tried her a year early, over-enthused by her placing behind Winx in the Turnbull Stakes. Were she in the same form as last year you might expect much the same result this time around. Her Australian Official Handicap has dropped 3 points since last year though. Let's take a look....
Following the 2018 Melbourne Cup she spelled 'til Autumn and had a couple of disappointing runs before wrapping it up 'til Spring. Some barrier trials and "why bother" runs began her campaign with Waller subscribing to the theory that you should risk a horse running in races it has no chance in before its metre-age ticks over a certain point and it suddenly becomes fit. Like how you always see 800m runners contesting sprint races in the IAAF Diamond League ahead of the Olympics... /s
It's time to pay attention again in the Hill Stakes, over 2000m: https://youtu.be/7_JwSmG2NyU?t=94. It's not impressive. Makes very little ground in the straight where you would anticipate her to be doing her best work.
Her final lead-up race is in the 2600m St Leger Stakes with Youngstar initially racing midfield courtesy of the inside barrier, before she drifts back slightly, perhaps hoping to find the back from where she can subsequently swing out. She's still stuck on the rail however and Bowman is held up for almost the entirety of the straight. There's a crack of an opening in the last 100m and she looks to flatten out but makes little impression on the winner or the rest of the challengers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1GDXxPrMgDQ.
No other runner from this race qualified for the Melbourne Cup. The only other starter she ran against this Spring was her stablemate Finche, both in the unsuited 1600m Chelmsford Stakes.
Youngstar actually had the oldest qualifying performance per the last Order of Entry, which went back to her Queensland Oaks win in May 2018. That was also her last victory. The 2.7L 3rd in the St Leger Stakes was both her closest and best finish this year, covering 8 races. Her form is not good.
Her Dosage Profile is (3-6-33-4-2) with DI 1.13 and CD 0.08. That implies 3300m. Her Conduit Mare Profile is (6-6-3-9-8), with Speed 12, Stamina 17, Index 0.75 and Triads (15-18-20). I defer to the Conduit Mare Profile and this says 2100m is more likely. Above all I defer to the horse's actual performances and they say she's 3w-2p:7s at 1885m - 2200m.
Waller could be playing four dimensional chess here, but even if he's aiming for her to peak on Cup Day, you'd expect a skerrick of evidence that Youngstar was responding well to that training. So far there's been anything but. Consequently she's a "no" from me. I think she'll be finishing mid to late teens. ...two to go! Hoping to do them quite late tonight
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