Wallkermac are you around ?

I always look for you analysis each year and this year I will be flying blind without you

If anyone else interested in doing the analysis Walkermac did last year as his table on reasons why horses would win were always super helpful.

Same, he does the best form for the cup.

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Sorry that I've been remiss with the Cup this year. I don't have the time available that I used to. I haven't been paying attention to any racing beyond putting some (dodgy) tips into the comp once a week. I will try and put some info up over the weekend though (fingers crossed my code still works!)

Well, bad news: can't find the file I used to use so I figure it must be on my old laptop. That laptop won't start (boot selection failed because a required device is inaccessible). I spent a bit of time on the weekend trying to fix it, but no luck.


It should be relatively easy to find the data though. That file just scraped it so that it was easier. One point for each:

• Less than 8yo
• Wgt < 57kg
• Not a mare
• <= $21 SP
• < $16 in last
• Wgtd < than in last
• FS in last >= 10
• Won Black Type
• <=3L in last
• <6 victories

I don't think it's done much good the past 3 years, so....


I could source this data, if anyone finds it interesting:

Horse	Sire	Dam	Dosage Profile	D.I.	CD
DURSTON	SEA THE MOON	CARIBANA	0-0-11-5-2	0.44	-0.5
LUNAR FLARE	FIORENTE	MY FAIR LAGO	3-6-16-5-0	1.31	0.23
POINT NEPEAN	CAMELOT	SEA GODDESS	3-4-21-14-0	0.71	-0.1
DEAUVILLE LEGEND	SEA THE STARS	SOHO ROSE	1-3-15-1-2	1.1	0
GOLD TRIP	OUTSTRIP	SARVANA	12-5-10-5-0	2.2	0.75
DUAIS	SHAMUS AWARD	MEERLUST	8-9-3-0-0	12.33	1.25
MONTEFILIA	KERMADEC	BANA WU	1-1-9-5-0	0.68	-0.13
HOO YA MAL	TERRITORIES	SENSATIONALLY	5-1-10-6-0	1	0.23
KNIGHTS ORDER	SO YOU THINK	LAMANKA LASS	6-6-21-9-0	1.15	0.21
LOFT	ADLERFLUG	LABRICE	3-6-10-10-1	0.88	0
WITHOUT A FIGHT	TEOFILO	KHOR SHEED	2-9-13-10-0	1.06	0.09
NUMERIAN	HOLY ROMAN EMPEROR	DELICATE CHARM	4-9-25-4-0	1.55	0.31
CAMORRA	ZOFFANY	MAURALAKANA	1-3-4-0-0	3	0.63
ALEGRON	TEOFILO	ALEGRIA	4-7-12-7-0	1.31	0.27
STOCKMAN	TAVISTOCK	CRIMSON	1-5-23-9-4	0.71	-0.24
YOUNG WERTHER	TAVISTOCK	ROMANTIC TIME	10-8-15-7-0	1.76	0.53
VOW AND DECLARE	DECLARATION OF WAR	GEBLITZT	6-8-6-0-0	5.67	1
GRAND PROMENADE	CHAMPS ELYSEES	ZACCHERA	3-8-13-0-0	2.69	0.58
TRALEE ROSE	TAVISTOCK	STAR OF TRALEE	2-5-24-9-4	0.76	-0.18
DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR	SWEET ORANGE	PAULETTE	3-14-9-0-0	4.78	0.77
ARAPAHO	LOPE DE VEGA	ALZUBRA	0-11-13-0-0	2.69	0.46
CRYSTAL PEGASUS	AUSTRALIA	CRYSTAL ETOILE	1-3-14-8-0	0.73	-0.12
SMOKIN' ROMANS	GHIBELLINES	INFERNO	0-10-16-2-0	1.8	0.29
EMISSARY	KINGMAN	SOVIET MOON	3-3-8-4-0	1.25	0.28
REALM OF FLOWERS	SO YOU THINK	ASTRAL FLOWER	2-4-16-8-0	0.88	0
INTERPRETATION	GALILEO	DALDIYNA	3-9-18-12-0	1	0.07
MAKRAM	MAKE BELIEVE	SPONTANEOUS	1-5-5-5-0	1.13	0.13
KING OF THE CASTLE	GALILEO	REMEMBER WHEN	5-11-20-12-0	1.18	0.19
SERPENTINE	GALILEO	REMEMBER WHEN	5-11-20-12-0	1.18	0.19
CHAPADA	BULLET TRAIN	DIAMANTINA DIOR	2-4-13-7-0	0.93	0.04
SAN HUBERTO	SPEIGHTSTOWN	SEDICIOSA	5-10-9-0-0	4.33	0.83
HARMYSIAN	LOPE DE VEGA	ADJA	1-10-11-0-0	3	0.55
HIGH EMOCEAN	OCEAN PARK	HIGH JOY	2-11-22-5-2	1.33	0.14
SCHABAU	PASTORIUS	STAYING ALIVE	2-3-10-5-0	1	0.1

(From a 2021 post) Looking at past figures:

• From left to right, the "average" 3200m race winner would have a profile like (5-5-15-4-2) (not to say that any one winner looks like that, just that all the individual numbers average out to those figures)
• Some numbers in the rightmost position would be particularly handy (this indicates that one/some of those ancestors tended to pass on long distance prowess; though that wouldn't help much if turns into a sit and sprint)
• An index of around 1.94
• A CD of around 0.22

I do find it interesting. Thanks for the info so far

I concur. RESPECT

Cheers LG

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The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Agreed, I can give it a crack with the scoring walkermac outlined but i'd have to do it all manually so would take a bit of time. But i've always loved these cup threads, one of the few things that keeps me checking in each year.

Ill likely do it Saturday night or Sunday in some format.

Exactly this champ.

LG

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The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Ive done the figures and used them in one of my youtube videos to look through the melb cup. I'll post it up once its ready (in a few hours).