Mirza v Kostanic.
Dubai

I'm going to contradict my own advice and back Mirza who is returning from an ankle injury. She played and won in the doubles qualifying yesterday and all reports are she is free of any major problems. I watched an interview on Star and she really is a confident young player."My aim is to win the first round, I am not looking much beyond that at the moment" . . . "The preparations have been going well. My ankle still bothers me, but it is not a major concern". Her opponent Kostanic, though ranked 36th, has had a woeful start to 2005, winning only two matches - one of which was a 3-set affair against wildcard and lowly ranked Delacqua (Australian Open). Kostanic's other win was another 3 set affair against the moderate Camerin. Having said all this Kostanic isn't an easy beat, she's a competent all rounder who has been more consistent in the doubles this season. The prices are close which may reflect injury concerns but I still think there's value. Mirza said the event is very important to her momentum (she won Indian Open) and perhaps if her ankle was too problematic, she wouldn't have added the burden of playing doubles.

Mirza $1.87 @ 5Dimes

Hi Marco

I notice that you quote both Pinnacle & 5dimes in your WTA assessments. I only have Centrebet that does WTA and their prices are somewhat shorter than your quotes.

I take it that you actually bet with them and u r Aussie.

I have heard good things about then from other sources. Are u happy with both of them and have you withdrawn funds from them?


thanks
Karla

Adding a couple of matches involving qualifiers as mentioned in last post.
Lines have now been posted.

Pin v Llagostera-Vives
Indian Wells

Pin's had a couple of solid results from qualifying and should be match ready.
She hasn't done too much this season though had a reasonable tournament in Antwerp and is competent on hard going 72/53 over her career. Her opponent Vives is first up returning from right leg tendonitis which forced her to withdraw from Bogata. She's also more at home on clay and is a more modest 44/38 on hard over her career. Pin with a couple of solid warm up games under her belt should be too much for the underdone Vives.

Pin $1.53 Sportingbet & Sportingodds

Kirilenko v Perebiynis
Indian Wells

Kirilenko's running hot at the moment and deserves to be at short odds. She's had a couple of good matches in qualifying and is in good form going 11-5 this season. This includes wins over Schnyder, Na Li and Shaui Peng - all classy hardcourters and close losses to Hantuchova and Ivanovic. She's 69/28 on hard over her career and has seen her ranking increase more than 30 places this year. Her opponent Perebiynis shouldn't be underestimated as she has the skills to win. However she's had an ordinary 2005 going 2-5 thus far with one of her wins coming on clay. Doesn't seem to play too well on the American hardcourt swing and has a career hardcourt record of 50/52.

Kirilenko $1.40 @ Pinnacle.


Notes: Daniilidou has withdrawn - still suffering inflammed right thumb. Replaced by lucky-loser Bondarenko. Steer clear of Bedanova as first game back since retiring from Ortesi a month ago.

Gagliardi vs Serra Zanetti
Acapulco

Gagliardi's a clear favourite for mine. Her 6-2 6-1 domination of Pin in the first round was rather encouraging while Serra Zanetti surprised many by beating the competent Llagostera Vives. However Llagostera Vives withdrew from Bogata last week with leg tendonitis and was a doubtful starter for this tournament. Head to head's favour Gagliardi 2-0 and while only one was on Clay (Italian Open 2001), both players had similar rankings to their current status (result 6-3 6-0). Gagliardi's slow start to the year is offset by Serra Zanetti's 1win/5loss since January, plus Gagliardi has the advantage of a good Clay workout in Bogata last week.

Gagliardi $1.55 @ 5Dimes

Pennetta vs Diaz-Oliva
Acapulco
Another favourite at a short price. Pennetta's in the best form of her career as displayed in her strong showing against Schruff in the first round. She did drop an early game but soon closed Schruff out with top rate finishing. Of course Diaz-Oliva is capable of an upset but I think it unlikely. She made the final in Acupulco in 2003 but was very lucky with Suarez's first round retirement and then only beat the likes of Muller, Vaskova and a clay-shy Asagoe. Since then Diaz-Oliva has only beaten one Top-50 player in 20 or so tour games with most of her time being spent on the challenger circuit.My calculations rate Pennetta as a 77.8 per cent chance so there's value at the price.

Pennetta $1.42 @ 5Dimes

Martinez vs Hantuchova

The glamorous Hantuchova vs the dour old war-horse Martinez is generating lots of punting action on the exchanges. Martinez upset the classy Myskina yesterday and played very well. Her serve was a little inconsistent but she was superb from the baseline which will suit against Hantuchova's style.
Martinez also recently beat young up-and-comers Peer, Groenefeld and Linetskya showing she still has plenty in the tank during what will be her last year on tour. To quote Martinez " "I feel healthy. Beating the No.5 in the world does a lot for my confidence. It took a few days to get used to the conditions here but I'm playing well, aggressive, and I didn't let her play her game today." Hantuchova got passed the talented Bovina yesterday in 3 sets but it's hard to draw conclusions as Bovina was returning from an injury layoff. It's generally thought that Hantuchova lacks the patience needed to counter Martinez's very crafty slice and spin - great to watch. Head to heads favour Martinez 3-1. Interestingly she opened at $2.83 at Pinnacle but the price was hammered in to $2.54 within 15 minutes.

Martinez $2.54 @ Pinnacle

Randriantefy vs Loit
Acapulco

I've explained above my general feelings on Radriantefy. Loit is certainly on her favourite surface but has played rather inconsistantly this year. Her recent loss to the lowly ranked Fernandez, her struggle against Beltrame in Round 2 and 0/4 start to the hardcourt season suggests she is vulnerable. Loit leads the h2h - all of which were on clay - but all of which were relatively close. I don't believe she should be this short in the market so Randriantefy represents value.

Randriantefy $2.75 @ Sportingbet.


Pennetta vs Osterloh.
Acapulco

Again, I've explaied my general feelings on both these players above. Osterloh is really riding her luck - this is her best clay performance ever - in what has been an ordinary season for her. However her luck runs out today as Pennetta has been magnificent this week in Acupulco and last week in Bogota. Every one will agree that there's been some upsets this week but I surprised Pennetta isn't shorter than her current quotes. It's hard to make money in the long term betting so short but I still believe there's value in today's price.

Pennetta @$1.24 @ Sportodds.

Randriantefy v Cervanova
Acapulco

I've ridden the Randriantefy wave this far so I'll try her one more time. Cervanova definitely has the game to beat the Madagascan and I'm predicting a close affair. However Randriantefy is the more experienced player and has performed more consistently over a longer period of time. Both have played well this week though Randriantefy has beaten a better class of opponent (both have won in straight sets). Cervanova's early exit from Bogata last week wasn't the best preparation making Randraintefy her first solid clay opponent this week. Neither are power hitters or big servers so expect a few service breaks.

Randriantefy $1.80 @ 5Dimes


Pennetta vs Serra Zanetti
Acapulco

Very surprised at the early prices offered on Pennetta. She's in terrific form and after a small hiccup during yesterday's first set, went on to demolish Osterloh. Perhaps the price is being driven by the H2h record which favours Zanetti 4-0 (3 of which were on clay). However the clay matches were in 1999-2000 seasons and relate to a totally different period and dynamic (as indicated by the players WTA rankings). Both players are Italian and know each others game as can be expected, but I just don't think Zanetti (ranked 118) has the current form or skill to match the 23-year-old Italian (ranked 30). When Zanetti beat Pennetta she held a higher ranking which is far from the case today. My only query would be the fatigue factor after winning in Bogata last week and competing in the singles and doubles here in Acapulco. Nevertheless, all factors point to a Pennetta win and at the price she represents tremendous value.

Pennetta $1.42 @ SportsTab

Any thoughts on Molik ($3.00) vs. Sharapova ($1.37)? I'm thinking of having a small 'recreational' wager on Molik just for aussie pride

Li vs Sugiyama
Dubai

I make the gnarly Na Li a 61.1% favourite in this match-up. Li (ranked 46 - a career high) came through qualifiers by easily beating Muller and Barna and then pipping Black in a close contest. She's young, tenacious and has made a solid start to 2005 by going 11/5 - all on hard. Moreover her record on hardcourts since 2001 is 77/18 and she clearly favours the fast conditions.
Li's ranking has also jumped over 200 places in 6 months while Sugiyama's has been slowly drifiting in the opposite direction. However Sugiyama shouldn't be underestimated because on her day, she's a proven performer. By these standards though, she's had a very poor start to 2005. Her only win in 6
matches came against Stosur last week - a match Stosur lost through sloppy play as opposed to Sugiyama playing well. Sugiyama did improve in her next match against Schiavone and though losing, took the game to 3 sets. Still Li has the momentum and form from qualifying so is in good shape to take the match.

Na Li $1.85 @ 5Dimes


Zheng vs Medina-Garrigues

Zheng (ranked 65) is another played who has performed well in qualifying this week with wins over Ruano Pascual and Camerin - both of whom have similar ratings to Medina-Garrigues(ranked 43). Zheng's had a good season thus far: she won the Hobart hardcourt with wins over Na Li, Dulko, and Asagoe (all reasonable players); she lost in the first round of Aussie Open to the classy Safina but it was a relatively close 3-setter, and she also took Mirza to 3 sets in Hyderabad (Mirza went on to win). In contrast, Medina-Garrigues has won only 1 of her 6 matches this season. To be fair she's had tough draws having come up against the likes of Pierce, Molik and Petrova. Then again Garrigues was beaten by Dulko last week - a player Zheng thrashed in the Hobart final. In short, the conditions should suit the hardcourt specialist and match-ready Zheng.

Zheng $1.47 @ 5dimes


Notes: Douchevina had a great qualifying win over young superstar Ivanovic and may well surprise Dechy who withdrew from Qatar last week with an illness. Always hard coming in cold - but Douchevina's too inconsistent to bet on. Similarly Likhovtseva is way too short in the market - she also withdrew
at late notice with an illness last week. Sfar is capable and appears highly motivated during interviews this week. Would like to play Bovina at the $1.70 but she's only third start back from long injury lay-off so question mark over her match fitness(h2h 7-2 Bovina).

Karla909,

I don't think he's paying any attention to you.