Yes, I do feel silly for starting a thread about it this early. But there has been news.

Another race has been announced as having a ballot exemption for the Melbourne Cup. The Andrew Ramsden, to be held on May 29th next year, will give locals a greater chance of making the final field. Its timing is ahead of the Spring arrival of international raiders. This follows particularly strident criticism of the race becoming too "international" in recent editions.

This year's victor was Sin To Win, who had an Official Rating of 84 at the time, which increased to 94 during the Spring. Megablast is similarly a 6yo gelding, was among the final acceptances, has a rating of 102 and was given 52.5kg for the big race. Arguably Sin To Win would have been given 50kg (the minimum weight for 4yo&up horses), so would possible have already been 1.5kg off the pace.

Of course the standard would be expected to be raised an account of the announcement. Also sweetening the pot: an increase in prizemoney from $200k to $400k.

The other change is in the race conditions. It will drop down to 2800m from the previous 3200m, and entry will be limited to 3 to 5yo's. The rationale, according to the Victoria Racing Club, being an effort "aimed to afford Australia’s brightest young stayers the chance to compete" in the Melbourne Cup. The race will also now be held under weight-for-age conditions.

Per the VRC CEO: "Unlike the other four Lexus Melbourne Cup ballot exempt races, the timing of The Andrew Ramsden outside of spring means the winner can have their program tailored towards the Lexus Melbourne Cup, something which owners and trainers will appreciate."


...now I'll just have to remember this thread exists in a few months' time!

Inside two weeks to the new ballot exempt race for the Melbourne Cup, The Andrew Ramsden.

Flemington, May 25th

Race 9 - The Andrew Ramsden (2800 METRES)
Of $400,000. 1st $240,000, 2nd $72,000, 3rd $36,000, 4th $18,000, 5th $10,000, 6th $8,000, 7th $8,000, 8th $8,000
Prize money contribution totalling 2% will be directed to jockey and equine welfare prior to distribution Listed
No class restriction, Set Weights, Three-Years-Old, Four-Years-Old and Five-Years-Old, No sex restriction


Nominations close: Mon 20-May-19 12:00PM AEST

Weights for competitors in the Andrew Ramsden will see three-year-olds carrying 55kg, four-year-olds 59kg and five-year-olds 59.5kg, with fillies and mares receiving a 2kg allowance.

Some of the possible starters:
Eastender (5yoG - 102 rating)
Steel Prince (5yoG - 94 rating)
Felaar (5yoG - 86 rating)
Alfarris (5yoG - 86 rating)


Surprise Baby (4yoG - 100 rating)
Furrion (4yoG - 98 rating)


Mr Quickie (3yoG - 90 rating)

Here are the nominees for Saturday's Andrew Ramsden. The winner will receive a ballot exemption for the 2019 Melbourne Cup.

1	1x21111x15	EASTENDER	G	5	Barry Campbell	1	58.5kg		102
2	0x34100x04	RUNAWAY	R	4	Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott	2	58kg		101
3	078x056782	SOPRESSA	M	4	Ciaron Maher & David Eustace	3	56kg		89
4	1151413	SURPRISE BABY (NZ)	G	4	Paul Preusker	4	58kg		100
5	116x033216	TRANSACT	G	3	Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott	5	54kg		85
6	21122x1111	STEEL PRINCE (IRE)	G	5	Anthony Freedman	6	58.5kg		99
7	3658x57352	SHEEZDASHING	M	4	Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra	7	56kg		88
8	x12120x461	ALFARRIS (FR)	G	5	David & B Hayes & T Dabernig	8	58.5kg		93
9	52132x8830	AZURO (FR)	G	5	Ciaron Maher & David Eustace	9	58.5kg		82
10	2218x98006	TIFFANY’S LASS	M	5	Danny Laws	10	56.5kg		75
11	8150x08008	SERENADE THE STARS (IRE)	G	5	Peter Gelagotis	11	58.5kg		74
12	274x236152	BARRY THE BAPTIST	G	5	Paul A Jones	12	58.5kg		80
13	723x512103	FELAAR (NZ)	G	5	Stephen Marsh	13	58.5kg		88
14	321492691	GOLDEN AUTHORITY (NZ)	G	5	Dane Smith	14	58.5kg		81
15	142x710x61	SASKO	G	4	Tony McEvoy	15	58kg		80
16	6x38111324	ROCKARRAL	G	4	Tony McEvoy	16	58kg		78
17	x521356121	CHOUXTING THE MOB (NZ)	G	5	Simon Morrish	17	58.5kg		69
18	314247x815	SAN REMO (IRE)	G	5	Dane Smith	18	58.5kg		68
19	8488343321	BEMBOKA QUEEN	M	4	Robbie Laing	19	56kg		65
20	6466x35984	INSTIGATOR (GER)	G	5	Aaron Purcell	20	58.5kg		76
21	427x221243	SKYWAY STAR	F	3	Symon Wilde	21	52kg		66
22	35110x5143	FAIRLIGHT (IRE)	G	4	Kris Lees	22	58kg		72
23	6474907934	MENTAL TELEPATHY (NZ)	G	5	Simon Morrish	23	58.5kg		73
24	0185x12337	AMERICAN IN PARIS	G	3	Symon Wilde	24	54kg		67

Surprise Baby looks one of the likeliest candidates.

Tip-top finish. Steel Prince got the golden ticket. Surprise Baby gallant in defeat. Dead-heat would have been nice, both would have got thru. The race a hit with fans.

Huge effort Surprise Baby, wide most of the race. A post-race veterinary examination revealed that the gelding pulled up distressed. He gave his all. I'm now a fan!

Boilover in the Queensland Oaks. Taking the victory was Winning Ways at $21, quickly followed by Dawson Diva and Lady Cuvee: both at $151! Consequently the exotics were HUGE. The trifecta paid over $180k on UBet; though 'only' $10k in NSW. The first four were all over the $100k mark across all pools.

Winning Ways wasn't that bad of a prospect. She had won 3 of her last 4, though finished midfield in The Roses - her immediately preceding race - which seemed to turn people off. Per the race notes, she got way too far back in that run from a wide draw, running on comfortably but left with too much to do.

It seems silly to say given that she won, but Winning Ways clearly had the best run today. The leading four in running (which included race favourite Princess Jenni) took the field along at a fast clip, with Winning Ways a small break behind. Finishers in second through fifth were all running towards the rear and gobbled up a tired field, though Winning Ways was able to hold them all off.

It was an emotional win, given that her owner had died the preceding week. After the race her trainer Garry Newham said: "This is the best filly I have ever had my hands on. She could be a Caulfield Cup horse". Following the race though, stewards reported she had bled and is banned from racing for three months - likely she was to spell anyway. Hopefully she can come back fit and healthy for a Spring campaign.

So: Winning Ways, Dawson Diva and Lady Cuvee have all now passed the first ballot clause of the Melbourne Cup. The latter pairing will likely have to win a few more qualifying races to amass enough eligible prizemoney to threaten making the final field. You could read into the trainer's statement somewhat that there are queries at the Cup distance.

Watch the full race here: https://www.racingqueensland.com.au...20190309/race/6


The Coronation Cup has been run in the UK with Defoe taking out a comfortable 0.5L win ahead of Kew Gardens. They broke away from the rest of the field, putting on an additional 5 lengths. The race was one of the fastest of latter years: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYRP4st_-Cw

Leading into the race Defoe had an Official Handicap Rating (from Irish authorities) of 115, whereas Kew Gardens (from British authorities) was 120. They were at level weights here and Kew Gardens was said to be targeting this race since the start of the season. So a very encouraging performance by Defoe (who also beat the 117-rated Marmelo by 9 lengths). Would likely receive a very challenging handicap for the Melbourne Cup now and one could think it pretty unlikely that either of Defoe or Kew Gardens will try their luck in Australia.


The field is set for the Grand Prix de Chantilly:
Listen In
Aspetar
Gyllen
Silverware
Petit Fils
Folamour
Ziyad

Aspetar is owned by Sheikh Fahad al Thani (of Qatar Bloodstock), who won the 2011 Melbourne Cup with Dunaden, trained by Roger Charlton who had Quest For More in the 2015 Cup and failed to qualify with Withhold last year.

Gyllen is a Godolphin runner trained by Andre Fabre, who brought Vadamos to Australia in 2016 (finishing 4th in both the Cox Plate and Mackinnon Stakes).

Both Folamour and Ziyad are owned by Wertheimer & Frere, a racing and breeding operation. They bred Americain and Dunaden, amongst others, but I'm not sure they have brought any runners out here themselves.

Aspetar looks a particularly interesting candidate: resuming in April over a Group 3 2400m, he finished in 2nd place, 1 length behind Marmelo and 3 lengths ahead of Defoe at level weights. Didn't do so well in his next, but was said not to handle the soft conditions. 2w-3p from 7 starts. Looks like he should be able to handle further than 2400m.

Not surprising, Surprise Baby off for a well-earned break

Both have firmed in the Cup market I've been watching
Steel Prince $21,,Surprise Baby $26
Cross Counter $15 favourite

Some qualifying races this weekend:


The Belmont Gold Cup Invitational will be held Saturday morning, Australian time. Red Cardinal won the race in 2017. Last year the field included Prince of Arran, who went on to take out third place in the Melbourne Cup.

The field this year:
Mootasadir
Noble Thought
Amade
Red Knight
Highland Sky
Arklow
Hunter O'Riley
Raa Atoll
Canessar

Mootasadir is trained by Hugo Palmer who brought out Wall of Fire for the 2017 Melbourne Cup. He's also owned by Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa bin Saeed Al Maktoum, cousin of the Dubai ruler and Godolphin head.

Hugo spoke earlier this year regarding Mootasadir's target: "The long-term aim, an end goal, is for him to be a Melbourne Cup horse - but we have got to jump through various hoops to get there first."

One of those hoops may be his poor showing on turf. Of his 9 starts he's had an impressive 6 wins, but those 3 losses (by 3L, 42L, and 18L respectively) have been his only runs on a turf surface. Per the British official ratings, he's a 6kg better horse on All-Weather. Speaking prior to his last loss - which admittedly was against Stradivarius - Palmer said: "He has got excuses for both runs on turf, but he has not done much wrong. Hopefully we can now try and get that win on the turf into him."

The Belmont Gold Cup Invitational is over the turf course. It's also over 3200m: 800m further than his longest race to date.

Raa Atoll is reportedly another horse with Melbourne Cup aims. He won the €100,000 G2 Comer Group International Oleander-Rennen (3200m) at Berlin’s Hoppegarten racecourse, defeating Thomas Hobson by 1.5 lengths, in mid-May. Thomas Hobson was the $1.50 favourite. Watch the race here: https://youtu.be/pgeWkOCIxvQ. The past two winners of the Oleander-Rennen have relocated to Australia - Red Cardinal (2017) and Sound Check (2018) - with both horses unplaced in subsequent Melbourne Cup attempts. Raa Atoll ran a quicker race though, if that counts for anything.

Raa Atoll went up against a few other familiar names last season, finishing just over 1L behind Rostropovich in the 2400m Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes at level weights, then failed badly (58L) in his next race, which featured Best Solution and Duretto.


Also overseas this weekend, runners could pass the first ballot clause in contesting the Belmont Stakes, Brooklyn Invitational Stakes (also at Belmont) or the Betway Pinnacle Stakes (at Haydock Park, UK). Looks unlikely any candidate will come from those races though.


In Australia we're set for the Queensland Derby (first 5 in betting: Nobu, Mr Quickie, Scarlet Dream, Carif, Fun Fact) and Brisbane Cup (Sixties Groove, The Candy Man, Haripour, Life Less Ordinary, Grey Lion) at Eagle Farm this Saturday.

Steel Prince is the first horse into the 2019 Melbourne Cup after winning last weekend's Andrew Ramsden. He's at $31 in early Melbourne Cup betting, finishing just 0.1L ahead of Surprise Baby ($26) who inarguably had the better race: drawn second widest, 3 wide or worse the trip, back further than midfield but took the lead at the 200m mark before being narrowly out-sprinted in the final furlong. Eastender ($67) flashed home to finish in 3rd position, 2.4L adrift.

Having a ballot exemption for the Andrew Ramsden was intended to provide a pathway for Australian horses into the Cup. While Steel Prince is Irish-bred and had a handful of early races there, it seems he's been a local since 2017. From August 2018, Steel Prince has had 11 starts for 7 wins and 4 seconds (with all bar two starts at 2400m or greater).

Now spelling, his connections will be able to tailor his Spring program so that he peaks on Cup Day.




(sorry for my dupe info Rogan Josh, I've had this browser tab open for a couple of days waiting for motivation to strike; I didn't refresh before posting)