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#101
24th October 2019, 11:55 PM
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 Prince Of Arran
6yo B Gelding
Shirocco (GER) - Storming Sioux (GB) [By Storming Home (GB)]
37s: 6-7-5
Though Prince Of Arran is returning for the Cup this year, this is the first time I've written a profile on him. I was pressed for time on Cup-eve last year and he was one of the few I skipped. I figured that he'd be too fatigued from the Hotham Handicap win that got him into the field to do well. He, of course, went on to run third. I missed picking him as a candidate, but the all-powerful 'system' had him right up there.... He finished two lengths behind Marmelo in 2018, with Cross Counter a further length in front. There was 2kg officially between Marmelo's and Prince Of Arran's handicaps but Hugh Bowman, jockey of the former, weighed one kilo over - so there was really a 3kg discrepancy. Following the Prince's penalty from the Geelong Cup victory yesterday (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4OlSi8tajzw), the weight difference will be 2kg again this year. I've written about how it appears that Marmelo is doing just as well as he was last year, so the question with regards to Prince Of Arran is: has he gotten four lengths better? (the two lengths he lost by + the 1kg extra he'll be carrying this year compared to Marmelo). The easy - but unhelpful - answer is: well, he won't have to run 2500m three days before the Cup this time! So: maybe. Probably. Ummm...surely? His final race before leaving for Australia last year was in the Heritage Handicap. Per the British Handicapping Authority he ran a 111 BHA Performance Figure while having a 107 rating. Following his Australian success he then galloped across the globe, in Hong Kong and the UAE before returning to the UK. They bumped him up to a 110 rating on arrival but his two performances there were adjudged to be at 108 level (plus a shocker on resuming which can be discounted). Long story short: they think he's ballpark of where he was last year: somewhere between 3 points better by rating, and 3 points worse than his peak performance. In Australia last season he got a 104 rating for the Herbert Power and Hotham Handicap and a 105 in the Cup. Following the Geelong Cup it looks like his interim handicap has been raised to 108. So they reckon he's 3 points better than he was here last year - only they rated him 3 points lower than his UK rating to begin with. He's certainly seemed to have shown his best on Australian tracks (5s:2w-3p). He's contested the Herbert Power both years, so some comparison can be made. This year (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnQEfIIoKH4) with 58kg he ran 2435m in 2'27.61s, with his last 3 200m sectionals in 12.06s, 11.64s, and 12.36s. Last year (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4GojR1Bxew) he carried 1kg less and ran 2433m in 2'26.77s, with the last 3 sectionals in 11.60s, 11.37s, 11.56s. Last year's performance looks better, but perhaps it was more due to how the race unfolded, rather than a direct measure of performance... There are a few concerning stats from his profile: 0 wins from 11 Group 1 and Group 2 starts; has only won on Good, or All-Weather back in 2015/16; has had 11 starts in fields greater than 13 for no wins and only 3 placings. All his wins have been at low prices: the highest was $8 all the rest were under $5. On the positive side: he does have a decent record at 3200m, with 1 win and 4 placings from 9 starts. Looking at some pedigree stuff, his Dosage Profile is (2-0-7-4-1) with DI 0.65 and CD -0.14. No concerns with distance; he'd be suited to even longer. His Conduit Mare Profile is (5-5-3-13-6) with Speed 10, Stamina 19, Index 0.64 and Triads (13-21-22). Again, no problems with the distance though only Ethereal has won the Cup this century with a higher Stamina number. There's a couple of other winners whom he looks quite alike though: Makybe Diva, has a very similar profile, though more Speed points; and Media Puzzle is closer still. Interestingly Media Puzzle did the Geelong Cup-Melbourne Cup double in 2002. He was penalised 1.5kg for his course record win and carried 52.5kg in the Melbourne Cup. I'd feel a little more confident if Prince Of Arran was carrying the same. I think he'll make a good account of himself, but for mine, he's carrying a little too much and he's also lacking some brilliant speed (The Chosen One easily ran him down in the shorter Caulfield straight in the Herbert Power; though the danger of that happening again will depend on the make-up of the final field). In any case, I think those two things combined just knock him out of winning contention. Will almost definitely finish top-10 and likely higher rather than lower. 
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#103
26th October 2019, 12:20 AM
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Cheers jose.
 Mustajeer
6yo B Gelding
Medicean (GB) - Qelaan (USA) [By Dynaformer (USA)]
20s: 4-3-3
Mustajeer won this year's renewal of the Ebor Handicap and it was a particularly strong race, given that the prizemoney had been increased to 1 million pounds. It was also the fastest run race since 1998, though the distance does seem to shuffle about slightly from year-to-year.
He was 10th in betting at $17, beating two at $26. Also in the large field of 22 runners were Melbourne Cup nominees Red Galileo42, Raymond Tusk26, True Self38, Prince Of Arran23 and Raheen House39. Mustajeer ran from barrier 2 and stuck to the fence in a slightly worse than midfield position. On entering the straight, the field switched to the outside rail and Mustajeer basically had everyone move out of his way so that he could run on: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e5gkgBmRKAE. It was a charmed ride where he likely took the shortest route of the field. Consequently others were given more credit for their runs following the race. Foremost among these: Raymond Tusk who had a particularly rough time of it but finished well in 4th.
Leading up to the Ebor, Mustajeer had some pretty ordinary looking runs up against Magical, finishing 12 lengths behind in each. Both races were over 2000m though and he seemed to fare far better once the distance got up to the 2800m mark.
The first of these was the Vintage Crop stakes: https://twitter.com/RacingTV/status/1122606753957470208. Mustajeer edges ahead of Master of Reality who then fights back to win by a neck. Southern France is 0.75L further back in 3rd position. Mustajeer was carrying 0.5kg more than both here, whereas he will carry 0.5kg less in the Cup. It should be noted though that Master of Reality and Southern France were both 1st up after 5-6 months off. Twilight Payment was also safely held, two lengths adrift with no weight change between this and the Cup.
Twilight Payment switched it up in their next tussle over 2800m, winning the Curragh Cup: https://twitter.com/RacingTV/status/1144678404891058181. Again at level weights (62kg!), Mustajeer this time finished a 3.5L 5th. The difference may have been in the track surface with a Good here, and a Yielding in the other - Twilight Payment looks to prefer the former and perhaps Mustajeer the latter. Other notables in the same race were Latrobe (2nd nk) and Southern France (4th 3.25L).
Australian Bloodstock has bought him and were reported as saying he was their best Caulfield Cup chance. He went on to finish there a 1.8L 6th. From the start he drifted back towards the rear, as is his wont. Those running on from the rear looked to have some advantage with the 1st and 2nd finishers in 15th and 17th position for much of the race, before they came wide and made their move after the 800m. Mustajeer could have made the same move as that pair (Mer de Glace and Vow And Declare) but instead was held up by them and couldn't get going until there was too much left to do. Constantinople had pretty much the same chequered run and is the $7 Cup favourite. Admittedly he was effected slightly more and managed to quickly put half a length on Mustajeer (but then couldn't pull any further away). Mustajeer is at $19 and there isn't that much between the two. I reckon Constantinople is unders...
I don't think that Mustajeer is overs. I don't like how he tends to race at the rear, particularly given his figures. His Conduit Mare Profile is (5-6-5-9-5), Speed = 11, Stamina = 14, Index = 0.88 and Triads of (16-20-19). Only Delta Blues and Americain have won this century with a Stamina figure that low. He's not going to race like Delta Blues did; maybe he has more of a(n Americain) chance if the track is Slow. In either case, both of those winners had better Brilliant figures to counter that lower Stamina. Also, the only winner this century with a higher Conduit Mare Index was Prince of Penzance (though he does tie with Americain: who had 4 straight victories leading into the Cup and had already raced at 3000m or longer 8 times; so little distance concerns there).
He doesn't really pique my interest. While the race may fall into his lap - like the Ebor did - I feel that there are better candidates to take it out. $21 seems about right to me.
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#104
26th October 2019, 09:01 PM
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Today's results from Cup nominees:
Will Hunting Horn get a penalty for this Melbourne Cup win? He'd hope not, given that he's already 20th in the Order of Entry. He's got an Irish handicap of 115; Downdraft has one of 110. Downdraft carried 0.5kg more at set weights, so Hunting Horn should have won by more than he actually did (putting aside the slow pace of the race, the short straight, etc). They've given that pair 109 and 106 ratings locally. Mr Quickie (rated at 108 going into the race) was reported to either spell or go to the Mackinnon Stakes after his Moonee Valley Gold Cup run. His trainer has ruled him out of the Melbourne Cup; they don't think he can stay. Master Of Wine passes the first ballot clause but won't be inside the current Top 50. Third declarations must be made by 10am on Monday.
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#105
27th October 2019, 08:14 PM
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 Hunting Horn
4yo B Horse
Camelot (GB) - Mora Bai (IRE) [By Indian Ridge (IRE)]
22s: 3-2-5
Hunting Horn took out yesterday's Moonee Valley Gold Cup. The track record was set last year by Ventura Storm; he came 10th in last year's Melbourne Cup. Who Shot Thebarman won in 2017; scratched from Cup. Grand Marshal won in 2016; 11th in Cup. The United States in 2015; 14th in Cup. There are actually Melbourne Cup systems that include "did not win the Moonee Valley Cup" as a filter. Aspro's Melbourne Cup System has been posted to Racing & Sports each year: Rule 1 - List any Cup acceptor placed in either the Caulfield Cup and Mackinnon Stakes (now irrelevant moved to finals day) Rule 2 - List any Cup acceptor placed 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup Rule 3 - List any acceptor who was placed 1-2-3 in the Melbourne Cup at their last cup run Rule 4 - List the Lexus Stakes winner Rule 5 - Delete any horse whose last run in the Melbourne Cup was an unplaced run. Rule 6 - Delete any horse who is aged 3yo or 7yo or older. That system hasn't done so well the last couple of years as it's skewed to determine the best local contenders, omitting the foreign raiders debuting in the Cup itself. This year only Downdraft would qualify through the race - and then only if they're lucky with acceptances falling their way. Hunting Horn has very much been Magic Wand's shadow. Most often competing on the same program, if not contesting the same race; as was the case yesterday when Magic Wand was also at the Valley and finished 4th in the Cox Plate. Hunting Horn tends to go in 2400m races with Magic Wand around 2000m. When they have gone head-to-head, Magic Wand has the supremacy in the shorter distances and Hunting Horn the longer: 11Aug - 2000m: Magic Wand - 2nd 2.25L, Hunting Horn - 8th 11L 14Sep - 2000m: Magic Wand - 2nd 2.25L, Hunting Horn - 8th 7.45L 11May - 2200m: Magic Wand - 3rd 0.75L, Hunting Horn - 4th 1L 27Jul - 2400m: Hunting Horn - 5th 9.55L, Magic Wand - 11th 50.45L 30Mar - 2400m: Hunting Horn - 4th 10.25L, Magic Wand - 5th 10.35L Hunting Horn carried 1.5kg extra in all bar the last, which was a 2kg difference. Yesterday's run was the furthest he's travelled. His two previous wins were over the 2000m. While not winning over 2400m he had an OK record: 0 wins and 4 places from 8 starts. It was also the 10th run of his current campaign, which stretches all the way back to January of this year. He hadn't won any of his preceding 14 races, though 11 of these were at Group 1 level . The trick is to put Ryan Moore aboard: he's the only jockey to ever win on him (8 starts for 3 wins and 3 places). His Dosage Profile is (2-13-12-8-1) with DI 1.4 and CD 0.19, so about 3000m looks ideal there. His Conduit Mare Profile is (5-4-3-8-8) with Speed 9, Stamina 16, Index 0.63, and Triads (12-15-19). Which looks suited to around about the same. Yesterday was a very slow-run race: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8hCB3c7XjWU. It was 5 seconds slower than Ventura Storm's effort of 2018 (who was also in the field this year). What wasn't slow was the last 600m, which was nearly 2 seconds quicker than 2018. Given the pace of the race, it says very little about these horses' staying ability. With no-one making a move from the rear until it's too late, it was pretty much just a contest between the first four runners. Though Hunting Horn has a 109 Australian rating, the Irish official ratings have him at 115. Shraaoh (107), Mr Quickie (108) and Ventura Storm (102) were going to do it pretty tough - particularly when Hunting Horn carried as much or up to 1kg less than all of these! I'd hope to have seen a Mer de Glace level of acceleration with that kind of discrepancy. Since the Moonee Valley Gold Cup is a useless form guide, how about some other races? Discounting anything under 2400m... If the Chester Vase Stakes hadn't happened so long ago (May 2018, as a 3yo) it would have been helpful. In that race over 2400m he was 3L behind Dee Ex Bee and 0.5L in front of Ispolini. Hunting Horn and Ispolini are currently at equal weights in the Cup, but any penalty for yesterday's win will be announced tomorrow. I'll doubt he'll get anything. Earlier this year he was in the Amir Trophy in Doha against Raymond Tusk, beating him by a length: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gHXVKFhY7Ec. He outpaces Raymond Tusk in the straight - who did a little more work in his run - but the latter will get 1kg back in the Cup. A month after that he and Magic Wand were up against each other in the Dubai Sheema Classic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOnucwtMz1Y. Hunting Horn edges out Magic Wand despite being a rank outsider, carrying 2kg more and less suited to the distance. Magic Wand was first up though. They were both 10 lengths back from Old Persian, who left them in his dust with the 300m to go. This is a long post, not so much cause there's plenty to say, moreso that there isn't a whole lot of substance to go on. I'm inclined to think that Hunting Horn is a couple of classes below Europe's top runners and that there's a couple of others in the Cup field who have accounted themselves against those better. He races forward, should get the distance but - with that 55kg weight (so far) - I'd hope that he was a bit more accomplished than having just 3 wins from 22: none of those at Group 1 level and his only one at Group 2 level being in an extremely week race. I guesstimate that he finishes somewhere between 10th and 15th. Last edited by walkermac : 27th October 2019 at 08:18 PM.
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#106
28th October 2019, 12:33 PM
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Third acceptances were due this morning for Melbourne Cup nominees. 42 remain in the hunt to be among the 24 that line up on racing day. The current Order of Entry is available here: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...ry-as-at-oct-28
Final acceptances will be taken this Saturday and then the top 35 of those remaining will undergo a vet check to see if they'll be right to race on the following Tuesday. Dropping out at this stage are: ALFARRIS (FR) ATTENTION RUN (GER) AVILIUS (GB) BIG DUKE (IRE) ETYMOLOGY GLORY DAYS (NZ) HOMESMAN (USA) HUMIDOR (NZ) KINGS WILL DREAM (IRE) MASTER OF WINE (GER) MR QUICKIE RED CARDINAL (IRE) SHRAAOH (IRE) SUPERNOVA (GB) TOP OF THE RANGE (NZ) VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ) WOLFE (JPN) YUCATAN (IRE) There are two remaining chances for those currently aside the Top 24 (asides from those above them dropping out through illness/injury). The first of these is Wednesday's Bendigo Cup. There's a chance to earn a penalty or earn enough prizemoney to leap ahead of others. Those Cup nominees who have accepted for the race: ANGEL OF TRUTH12 BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB)37 - needs 2kg penalty PATRICK ERIN (NZ)28 - needs 0.5kg penalty RAHEEN HOUSE (IRE)30 - needs 1kg penalty SULLY (NZ)41 - needs 3.5kg penalty Acceptances for this race were due ahead of the release of the new Order of Entry. The final chance for nominees is the Hotham Handicap/Lexus Stakes this Saturday, where the winner will receive the final ballot exemption. 28 have nominated for the race so far. Prizemoney for 2nd or worse won't be enough for those on the same handicap as 24th-placed Neufbosc to progress. It will be win and you're in. Nominations close for this race on Wednesday at noon. Of those who have accepted for the Ballarat Cup: Brimham Rocks and Patrick Erin have already nominated (as has Angel of Truth, who is safely in the field and will probably just run at Ballarat for a tune-up if at all). Neither Raheen House or Sully are yet to nominate. Sully will have to run in the Hotham and cop the Ballarat Cup scratching fee; perhaps Raheen House will try their luck at Ballarat given the smaller task. Only 18 will make the final field of the Hotham, so that may make some decisions. There's only 4 hours between acceptances for the Hotham being announced and the start of the Ballarat Cup. As anticipated, Hunting Horn did not receive a penalty for his win in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. Nor did Master of Wine for his first ballot clause passing-win in the Tattersalls Cup.
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#107
28th October 2019, 12:48 PM
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Here's the current standings in 'the system'. The dropouts didn't make it any easier. The highest score to drop out was the lowermost '8' Master Of Wine... Only 5 nominees with a Conduit Mare Stamina figure of 17 remain (10 of the past 11 winners) in the final 24 starters so far.
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#108
28th October 2019, 01:05 PM
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walkermac,
Any chance you can add another column at the start which states your thoughts on whether the horse is weighted fairly or not compared to the horse ratings as you posted some time ago? Hope that isn't too much of a stuff around for you, and if it is then dont worry about it but just thought it may be handy. Cheers
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#109
28th October 2019, 05:15 PM
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#110
29th October 2019, 12:26 AM
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 Mer De Glace
4yo B/BR Horse
Rulership (JPN) - Glacier Blue (JPN) [By Sunday Silence (USA)]
18s: 8-2-5
Mer De Glace is on a streak of 6 victories that extends back to the start of the year and culminated in the Caulfield Cup. Caulfield Cup winners don't have a great record in the Melbourne Cup: only 11 horses have done the double in history. The last of these was Ethereal in 2001. He's the current second favourite with perhaps the biggest question mark being his aptitude at the Cup distance. His 2400m Caulfield Cup win was actually the furthest distance over which he's competed. The bulk of his career, since turning 3, has been over either 2000m or 2200m. Per his Dosage Profile (7-0-21-2-0), DI (1.4) and CD (0.4); he might be pushing it to get the distance. That looks like 2400m is ideal. His Conduit Mare Profile is (3-5-7-11-2) with Speed 8, Stamina 13, Index 0.82 and Triads (15-23-20). That looks around 2000m is ideal. That Stamina figure is lower than any other winner this century. There have been 26 runners with a figure of 13, they have an average finishing position of 14th with a best finish of 2nd (Yippyio in 2000). It's not so cut and dried though: there have been 4 placegetters with a Stamina figure even lower. One was Criterion in 2015, though that was an atypical sit and sprint dodgem derby. Another was Jardine's Lookout in 2003 4 lengths back in 3rd. And the final two were both from 2006, curiously also both with low Speed figures: Pop Rock (an omen?) and nearly 5 lengths back Maybe Better. I think the race type and field quality has moved on from the early-mid 2000s so I hold concerns over the distance. His profile is very similar to that of Admire Rakti, who also won the Caulfield Cup - and had a sad end following the 2014 Melbourne Cup.... They both have a very low figure for the Professional category (i.e. the rightmost) in the Conduit Mare Profile. Only 9 of the 400+ horses who have contested the Cup this century have had a figure of 2 or lower. The best finish was 5th - and all of them had a Speed figure of at least 10 to counteract that somewhat. All that being said: his Caulfield Cup win was pretty good. No other runner covered as much ground as he did, but he still powers comfortably to the lead in the straight and holds off the rest of the field: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esSOa1T_6M4. You can watch more vision of him here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6CRUmvHl-k. Looking a little closer, his Kokura Kinen run was the 4th slowest in the past 17 years. Both his Naruo Kinen and Niigata Kinen are of middling time. ...though not many of those runners compete outside of Japan to lend much in the way of comparison. The 2nd placegetter in the Niigata Kinen, finishing 0.3L behind Mer De Glace, just ran the Group 1 Autumn Tenno Sho this past weekend and got smashed by 14 lengths. The horses we've tended to get here in Australia have contested (and generally done better) at the Tenno Sho. Mer De Glace's only Group 1 race is the Caulfield Cup, with all his other blacktype at Group 3 level. Track surface is another area of concern. He'll be hoping it stays dry: only one run on Soft and it was no good. His sire has pretty abysmal wet weather stats for his offspring also. On a Good track Mer De Glace is 1w-1p/4s. On Firm is where he's been smashing it: 7w-6p/13s. Damien Lane will be his jockey after striking up a profitable relationship with the horse (2w/2 for around $2million dollars prizemoney in Japan) and winning the trust of his trainer, who acquiesced to Lane's plea to bring Mer De Glace to Australia. He'll be well-rested for the Cup as he picked up a 10 meeting suspension for his ride at Caulfield, shifting in when not clear of another horse (Sound was badly effected). If Mer De Glace was first up in the Cup I wouldn't rate him highly. His performance in the Caulfield Cup is the only thing lending me caution. Doing the double seems a particularly difficult ask for him though. He's carrying just 1.5kg less than Cross Counter and is rated 6-9 points lower, with those points earned at a distance to which he appears far better suited. I just can't have him among my top picks. I may end up looking silly(er) but I'm even inclined to think that he's more likely to finish in the 2nd half of the field than the first. Last edited by walkermac : 29th October 2019 at 12:31 AM.
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