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#121
2nd November 2019, 04:08 PM
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Here is the extra distance that each horse ran when compared to the one that covered the least metres in their Cup. Collected by barrier and per the tracking stats available for the last 2 years (NB - only one data point for barrier 9 and one for barrier 24).
 
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#122
2nd November 2019, 04:12 PM
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Quote:
Those wide barriers do not look good. You need a really good horse to win from out there against other good horses.
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#123
2nd November 2019, 05:59 PM
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Aside from the odds perhaps fluctuating over the next couple of days, here are the final results of 'the system'. Not as helpful as in past years!
(NB - Bold runners have a Conduit Mare Stamina Figure of 17, as have had 10 of the last 11 winners).
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#124
2nd November 2019, 09:38 PM
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Thanks walkermac for all you've done with this thread. Can you remind us how the system works and what the system picks are? Would they be used just for the win or, say, a first 4?
__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.” ― Earl Nightingale
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#125
2nd November 2019, 10:05 PM
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 Neufbosc
4yo GR Gelding
Mastercraftsman (IRE) - Nonsuch Way (IRE) [By Verglas (IRE)]
13s: 3-2-1
He's not given much chance by the market, Neufbosc has the longest odds in the race. Prince of Penzance won at $100 in 2015, why not Neufbosc at $126?
Let's look at his pedigree. His Dosage Profile is (1-13-6-0-0), DI 5.67 and CD 0.75. Oh. His DI and CD are higher than any winner this century. He looks more like a 1400m runner. 6 of the 38 placegetters had a higher CD - and one of these at $101 - so it's not impossible. Just unlikely.
He looks slightly better with his Conduit Mare Profile of (6-8-1-9-7), Speed 14, Stamina 16, Index 0.88 and Triads (15-18-17). Though Prince of Penzance still looks the most similar to him of recent winners...
Neufbosc was a French runner with some handy European form; mid last-year he finished a close second to Kew Gardens over 2400m. Behind him in that race was Dee Ex Bee (3 lengths further back) and Downdraft (14 lengths). Downdraft is at $16 for Tuesday's race. The race prior, he had beaten Ispolini by 4 lengths. The race following, he started favourite but was just beaten by Hunting Horn by 1.5L. Hunting Horn is at $31.
He was such a prospect that his final European start was last year's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.
....did they ship the right horse? (To be honest, I actually spent some time trying to compare video to see if it was. Because he's a grey, his colour has changed markedly as he's aged; he looked waaaay more brown when he was at his best overseas as a 3 year old).
He was gelded sometime soon after his arrival but it didn't seem to do him any favours. He's had 5 starts in Australia over 1400m to 2400m and not finished any better than 7th or any closer than 4.5 lengths.
The Geelong Cup is probably the best guide as to his current ability: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQ1XfgvsESk. He runs along the rail in 4th position with the field going at a moderate tempo. Rounding the final turn he's left behind a wall of horses and: it doesn't seem to matter. He never really threatens to run on. The speed that his figures said he should have has been totally lacking in his Australian races thus far.
Luckily for him, his Melbourne Cup handicap was based on his European performances from last year. Unlucky for those who missed out on a Cup position, he's not running anything up to that standard. His last official French rating was 112. His Australian rating is currently 105 and very kind. The handicapper wasn't to know his form would turn dire. When weights were released for the Cup Neufbosc had only had two runs, each of which over unfavourable distances, so his poor results in those were anticipated.
Given his current form, given that he's carrying 2.5kg more than his rating says he should, given his barrier (#23), and given how different his prep is to when he was performing well in France, he looks likely to finish within the last handful. It seems very unlikely that he'll suddenly bring this kind of form: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gv4usV7wwdE (Neufbosc's jockey is in white with a purple cap). He'd be among the favourites if he did; but it seems an impossible ask to turn it all around.
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#126
2nd November 2019, 10:57 PM
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Quote:
Last year was the first time it was used to forecast the result. You can't see it on last year's thread now unfortunately: I posted it as an image and the hosting site has since shut down. I'm certain though (I think someone comments this in the thread) that the first four were among the total of 7 horses in the table that had either full points or were only one off. Cross Counter was one of the horses who had lost one point, but he was the only one of the seven who also had 17 Stamina. As far as how to use the data in the table this year: unfortunately there are too many good candidates for it to be of much use this time! For an interest wager you could place a Win bet for Raymond Tusk, Downdraft or Surprise Baby: they're on the top two rungs + have a 17 Stamina figure. It's probably more helpful as a means to help your own decision-making in coming up with a shortlist. Here's another system which might leave a smaller number of candidates: "Aspro's Melbourne Cup System", presumably soon to be posted by Racing & Sports: Rule 1 - List any Cup acceptor placed in either the Caulfield Cup and Mackinnon Stakes (now irrelevant moved to finals day) Mer De Glace, Vow And Declare, Mirage Dancer Rule 2 - List any Cup acceptor placed 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup Downdraft Rule 3 - List any acceptor who was placed 1-2-3 in the Melbourne Cup at their last cup run Cross Counter, Prince Of Arran Rule 4 - List the Lexus Stakes winner Downdraft Rule 5 - Delete any horse whose last run in the Melbourne Cup was an unplaced run. N/A Rule 6 - Delete any horse who is aged 3yo or 7yo or older. Bye, So per this system, the winner comes from: Mer De Glace, Vow And Declare, Mirage Dancer, Downdraft, or Cross Counter. Combine it with our 'the system' and the winner is "clearly" one of Downdraft and Vow And Declare. ...though you'll note that there's no way for a debuting foreign raider to be a selection per Aspro, so his system would have misfired the previous two years. Per 'the system', the best foreign debuting candidates are Master Of Reality and Latrobe. Box these 4 candidates for trifecta and first fours? Standout Downdraft - the only one of these with a 17 Stamina figure - for the win, if you're a strong believer. I thought Marmelo was going to win this year, to be honest. So I was fully prepared for 'the system' to fail and was likely going to bet against it. That's how much confidence I have in its selections! LOL
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#127
3rd November 2019, 01:35 AM
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 Downdraft
4yo B Horse
Camelot (GB) - Cinnamon Rose (USA) [By Trempolino (USA)]
18s: 7-2-1
Apparently this guy is going to win the Melbourne Cup...
 Greg Carpenter made a couple of interesting tweets after Downdraft's win in the Hotham Handicap/Lexus Stakes:
- Ten of last 13 Hotham Handicap winners have finished top ten in Melbourne Cup three days later - Six of those finishing top 5. Shocking (2009) and Brew (2000) last two to complete Hotham-Cup double.
- Factors considered in not issuing penalty were his defeats behind Southern France in Irish Leger Trial and Hunting Horn in MV Gold Cup last two runs and only Hotham winner to carry more than 51.5kg in last 25 years was Prince of Arran (53kg)
Prince Of Arran had a bit of a tougher time in his race, with the favourite Brimham Rocks pushing him to the line. Downdraft had a comparatively cushy run: he travelled the least distance in the field and - coming into the turn - the leader Haky (also an OTI runner) drifted away from the fence to give him a saloon passage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jBwUORaWtAY. Carif ran on for second, but the race was over at the 400m mark.
One negative is that Downdraft also ran last Saturday. Come Tuesday he'll have run 3 times inside of 11 days. Prince Of Arran didn't do that last year. Nor did Shocking. Brew very nearly did though: he came second in the Moonee Valley Cup, which was held on a Thursday at the time and so he just got an extra couple of days before the Hotham/Lexus/SAAB. Perhaps further indication of how soft Downdraft had it: both his and Brew's races were on a Soft 7 but yesterday's race was nearly 2 seconds slower.
The rise of Downdraft is only a relatively recent occurrence. OTI saw something they liked early in his career, following some meh All-Weather track performances in 2018. They held high hopes for his 3yo season but a trip to Longchamp (for the Juddmonte; the same race I linked in Neufbosc's profile) showed exactly where he stood: 15 lengths off the pace.
He didn't really hit his straps until this July. He kicked of this run of performances with a victory in a 4-horse field over 2400m, his first Listed victory and his first attempt at black type since his shellacking the previous year. Later that month he showed a very impressive finish in Her Majesty's Plate Listed Race at Down Royal: https://youtu.be/dVO_Er0usGs?t=244. He beat 2nd by 3 lengths and put another 5 on the rest of the field. Twilight Payment had won this race the year previous, in a time 7 seconds slower.
From there it was to the St Leger Trial Stakes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ftKx9Ym-z0. Unfortunately we don't get to see the whole race. Southern France beat him by 2 lengths at equal weights, where Downdraft beat Master Of Reality by a further 2 lengths, carrying 1kg less. Downdraft will carry 2kg less than Southern France in the Cup and gets another 1kg off Master of Reality.
Australia beckoned and after a 10 week break he resumed in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pEeY4F6zRto. He finished in 3rd position, 1.5 lengths behind Hunting Horn. Downdraft carried 0.5kg more here, and will carry 1.5kg less than him in the Cup. It looks like Handicapper Carpenter was very friendly regarding penalties.... Downdraft looks like he should have probably earned 1kg, to be fair. He'll be carrying 53.5kg, 2.5kg lighter than he's ever carried before.
His Moonee Valley performance was missing the zip we saw overseas. His only prior first up win was in a 4-horse race. And the zip seemed to be back yesterday. Perhaps he needed the run.
He wouldn't be stoked with his barrier. He drew #15 and 5 of his 7 victories have come from barriers 1-3. At least it was no wider, that's when things start to go bad (see http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/sho...71&postcount=96 for more details). Backing up after so much recent racing is the big concern, though we have no way to measure the effect. If honest reports from his trainer are that he has recuperated well and will be right to go, he looks a strong top-4 chance to me.
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#128
3rd November 2019, 10:54 AM
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Time to start posting our selections.
For the winner I think we are down to the following: CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE) FINCHE (GB) MUSTAJEER (GB) VOW AND DECLARE SURPRISE BABY (NZ) MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) RAYMOND TUSK (IRE) DOWNDRAFT (IRE) PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) MER DE GLACE (JPN) I'm also going to throw in CROSS COUNTER because its being tipped everywhere but I don't expect it to win. That leaves us 11 selections. In order of preference for me (ratings at the start with 0.0 being best): 0.0 MER DE GLACE (JPN) 0.5 PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) 1.0 DOWNDRAFT (IRE) 1.5 MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) 2.0 CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE) 2.5 RAYMOND TUSK (IRE) 2.5 SURPRISE BABY (NZ) 2.5 FINCHE (GB) 2.5 MUSTAJEER (GB) 3.0 VOW AND DECLARE 9.9 CROSS COUNTER My strategy for the Melbourne cup will be to lay those identified at the bottom of the list from WalkerMac's and will include: IL PARADISO (USA) ROSTROPOVICH (IRE) NEUFBOSC (FR) SOUND (GER) to tell the truth most of my money comes from other races on Tuesday so this race won't have a big impact on profits. Whats your tips? Do you disagree with mine? Put up your tips for bragging rights on Tuesday afternoon.
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#129
3rd November 2019, 11:04 AM
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 Latrobe
4yo BR Horse
Camelot (GB) - Question Times (GB) [By Shamardal (USA)]
15s: 3-6-1
Latrobe has drifted in betting to $26 following yesterday's barrier draw. It also might be somewhat 'out of sight, out of mind', given that he's yet to race since arriving in Australia.
He's drawn barrier #22. As can be seen in the graph posted yesterday: the past two years, the horse in barrier #22 has run an average 20m further than the horse who travelled the least distance.
Last year I did some data crunching and determined that those drawn outside barrier 15 were under-represented in the Top-4 finishers.
Ahead of the 2018 race, I noted (using data from 2000 on) that the 3 winners within the sample were all carrying <= 52kg and 11 of the 13 top-4 finishers were <= $21 despite their draw. Using those filters on the whole data set, of the 140 finishers drawn outside barrier 15, the <= $21 rule eliminated 99 candidates and missed just 1 second and 1 third (Jakkalberry and Red Cadeaux). The 'Weight <= 54kg' eliminated a further 12 for no further top-4 misses.
Applying it for 2018, it meant that Cross Counter and Rostropovich were possible winners, and that A Prince Of Arran, Yucatan and Magic Circle were potential placegetters. It ruled out 5 horses: one of whom was Finche in 4th and the rest finished 13th and worse.
In 2019, Vow And Declare remains a winning chance, with Il Paradiso, Magic Wand and Surprise Baby remaining place chances (presuming prices don't change). Latrobe doesn't make the cut currently.
I read there's some thought that he may struggle at the distance if it's hard-run. There is something to bear that out in his pedigree figures. His Dosage Profile is (2-7-19-8-0) with DI 1.06 and CD 0.08; indicating around 3300m is his best distance. But his Conduit Mare Profile, which I tend to defer to, is (4-5-4-11-4), with Speed 9, Stamina 15, Index 0.74, and Triads (13-20-19) and looks like slightly short of that. Among the winners this century, only Americain and Delta Blues have a lower Stamina figure. Americain was on a Slow track and Delta Blues' win was one of the slower times on Good. Latrobe has had 3 goes over 2800m with two second placings at Group level, so he's not without hope, but would be hoping for a moderate pace.
Latrobe came to Australia last season to contest the Cup but was withdrawn and ran in the Mackinnon Stakes instead, coming 2nd to Trap For Fools. He dropped into Sha Tin - for little success - on the way home before spelling.
He resumed in April where he mixed it with some other Cup runners over 2000m: he accounted for Mustajeer in the Alleged Stakes - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-fWGA-13f4 (carrying 2kg more; they're level on Tuesday) and was edged out by Magic Wand in the Wolferton Stakes - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jEkwgqn0NQQ (carrying 2.5kg more; he gets 1kg back on Tuesday).
Up at 2800m in the Curragh Cup (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qE89Pj6PvEI) Latrobe got beaten by a neck by Twilight Payment (at even weights, as will be the case in the Cup), beat Southern France by 3 lengths (the latter will now carry 0.5kg more), and had another win over Mustajeer (3 lengths at the same weights).
His final European race was the 2800m Irish St Leger, finishing a 5.5 lengths 6th: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUgzyvSbDrA. The winner had put just over 2 lengths on Kew Gardens. Another 2 lengths back to a bunch all finishing within a couple lengths of each other: Southern France, Cross Counter, Master Of Reality, Latrobe and Twilight Payment. Though he would have preferred to be a wee bit closer, Latrobe is better at the weights come the Cup. Per owner Lloyd Williams after the race: "Latrobe was disappointing to the eye but not the jockey [Donnacha O'Brien]. Improvement is possible." Hardly a ringing endorsement, but there's some hope for supporters.
I think the distance is slightly beyond his best, he's a notch below the better overseas candidates, he's lacking some top end speed, and the wide barrier draw is of little help. Let's say he'll finish around 14th.
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#130
3rd November 2019, 12:30 PM
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 Cross Counter
4yo B Gelding Teofilo (IRE) - Waitress (USA) [by Kingmambo (USA)] 12s: 6-2-1
You can read last year's profile on Cross Counter (in which I called him 'the likeliest candidate'), here: http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/sho...nter#post374798
So what's changed since last then? Well, he won last year's Melbourne Cup. In case anyone's forgotten how thrilling his finishing burst was: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=95ypY3OqS6w. He was drawn wide, went back and with the light weight zipped by the field in the straight. He just collected Marmelo in the last 50m, but had 3 lengths on everyone else.
He's back to defend his title, and has a real weight rise of just 2.5kg. He carried 51kg, 4.5kg below the benchmark for a Northern Hemisphere 4yo at the time. His weight this year is 57.5kg, 2kg below benchmark.
From the stats I have for returning winners:
Almandin went up 4.5kg (12th 11.7L)
Americain went up 3.5kg (4th 1.5L and then 11th 6.7L)
Dunaden went up 4.5kg (14th 10L and 11th 8.8L)
Fiorente went up 1.5kg when moving from 2nd to 1st
Green Moon went up 3kg (21st 44.4L)
Makybe Diva went up 4.5kg (1st, then a further 2.5kg for 1st)
Media Puzzle went up 3kg (12th 10.3L, 2 years later)
Shocking went up 6kg (18th 19.4L)
Viewed went up 5kg (7th 4.4L).
So Cross Counter has been treated relatively kindly when compared to recent winners. Prior to the Melbourne Cup his Official British Rating was 114. Now it's 118, so that's also in keeping with the weight rise. Compared to the other horse's in the race and their ratings, only Raymond Tusk, Hunting Horn (if you take his overseas rating), Il Paradiso and Master Of Reality get 1kg or more in their favour.
Per a report earlier in September:
Syndicator Luke Murrell, whose company Australian Bloodstock syndicated the 2014 Melbourne Cup winner Protectionist, said Cross Counter was extremely well in with his current weight. “Cross Counter, with 57.5kg he has been gifted the race this year,” Murrell said. “He’s had seven starts in Group company for three wins- two at Group I level and two placings to the best stayer in the world in Stradivarius – basically the Melbourne Cup is over before we start if he travels well. “How you can get into a Melbourne Cup having won last year - then winning the Dubai Gold Cup - then with the fat Stradivarius form – with 57.5kg is surprising. “You can only assume he's a put in and take out job - and the $17 is a gift this far out - if he arrives here on the day, he will start 4/1.” He's at $14 currently, but then very little word has escaped Werribee.... He was also sent for a precautionary CT scan last week but was passed as suitable. Since the 2018 Melbourne Cup he's won the Dubai Gold Cup relatively easily bar for Ispolini - who's since been scratched (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxryP4DxT-Q), ran 4th in the Gold Cup at Ascot within 2 lengths of Stradivarius (over 4000m which is too long for him), and then was back to 2 miles in the Goodwood Cup Stakes (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUMkUv6e1Tw) where he finished 7 lengths in front of Southern France, and just behind Stradivarius and Dee Ex Bee again. His one blemish was his final European race in the Irish St Leger. Southern France just shaded him and he finished among some other Cup challengers. Per his trainer Charlie Appleby: “Cross Counter put up a pleasing effort. It was a bit of a messy race but he produced another solid performance and we can look forward to seeing him try to defend his crown at Flemington.” Given his earlier form I'm inclined to think that Cross Counter just had an off day there. He won't be able to run by the field as he did last year but he's drawn well in Barrier 5. I'd certainly have him among the top finishers and wouldn't rule him out of going back-to-back.
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