Hope you got some of that trifecta the "system" threw up WM.
Top job.

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Jose'.

I've written a lot of rubbish on this thread; I wish I listened to this particular piece of rubbish!


I didn't mind my pick Cross Counter's run. I don't think what seemed to be a very slow pace would have suited. I think it was Constantinople who veered into his way early in the straight and caused him to lose momentum. It took him a while to rebalance and once he did - for a moment there - I thought he was going to blitz his way through. Unfortunately he started laying in and had to be straightened up.


Depending on how this protest goes, I might have bet around all the winners! I'll do some reviewing late tonight

Nice

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One Drive

"If the corporates are treating you poorly , just go elsewhere."
"If they need you , they will soon find out."
"If you need them , you will soon find out." --moeee
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And this is why I use systems and not my own feel. I eliminated the winner just on personal choice. I made about $140 on the race but the day is looking very profitable.

Unfortunately, for the sake of posterity, the protest between 4 v 2 was upheld so finishing order 23, 12, 20, 3 - So no trifecta.

But the system got the winner. Well done walkermac!

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Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

Here is the 2019 Melbourne Cup: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2GnR4YRNmE

Here are the final results:

Finish	No.	Horse	Trainer	Jockey	Margin	Bar.	Weight	Penalty	Starting Price
1	23	VOW AND DECLARE	Danny O'Brien	Craig Williams		21	52kg		$11
2	12	PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB)	Charlie Fellowes	Michael Walker	0.2L	8	54kg	1.0kg	$17
3	20	IL PARADISO (USA)	Aidan O'Brien	Wayne Lordan	0.3L	17	52.5kg		$15
4	3	MASTER OF REALITY (IRE)	Joseph O'Brien	Frankie Dettori	0.4L	1	55.5kg		$26
5	18	SURPRISE BABY (NZ)	Paul Preusker	Jordan Childs	0.9L	20	53.5kg	1.0kg	$12
6	2	MER DE GLACE (JPN)	Hisashi Shimizu	Damian Lane	1.2L	2	56kg	1.0kg	$9.50
7	11	FINCHE (GB)	Chris Waller	Kerrin McEvoy	1.4L	4	54kg		$8.50F
8	1	CROSS COUNTER (GB)	Charlie Appleby	William Buick	1.6L	5	57.5kg		$13
9	21	STEEL PRINCE (IRE)	Anthony Freedman	Brett Prebble	2.1L	16	52.5kg		$61
10	15	MAGIC WAND (IRE)	Aidan O'Brien	Ryan Moore	3.6L	24	53.5kg		$26
11	10	TWILIGHT PAYMENT (IRE)	Joseph O'Brien	Hugh Bowman	3.8L	19	55kg		$41
12	17	SOUND (GER)	Michael Moroney	James Winks	3.9L	10	53.5kg		$91
13	19	CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE)	David & B Hayes & T Dabernig	Joao Moreira	4.1L	7	52.5kg		$9.50
14	4	MIRAGE DANCER (GB)	Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young	Ben Melham	4.3L	13	55.5kg		$51
15	6	HUNTING HORN (IRE)	Aidan O'Brien	Seamie Heffernan	4.5L	11	55kg		$51
16	13	RAYMOND TUSK (IRE)	Richard Hannon	Jamie Spencer	5L	3	54kg		$21
17	22	THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ)	Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman	Tim Clark	5.2L	18	52kg	0.5kg	$31
18	7	LATROBE (IRE)	Joseph O'Brien	James McDonald	6.45L	22	55kg		$21
19	5	SOUTHERN FRANCE (IRE)	Ciaron Maher & David Eustace	Mark Zahra	6.55L	14	55.5kg		$26
20	24	YOUNGSTAR	Chris Waller	Tommy Berry	7.3L	9	52kg		$31
21	16	NEUFBOSC (FR)	David & B Hayes & T Dabernig	Luke Nolen	8.3L	23	53.5kg		$101
22	14	DOWNDRAFT (IRE)	Joseph O'Brien	John Allen	8.6L	15	53.5kg		$21
23	8	MUSTAJEER (GB)	Kris Lees	Damien Oliver	10.85L	6	55kg		$19
24	9	ROSTROPOVICH (IRE)	David & B Hayes & T Dabernig	Dwayne Dunn	40.85L	12	55kg		$41

The race was run in 3'24.76 - there have only been two slower this century: Americain on Slow and Makybe Diva's middle title, also on a Soft 5. It wasn't just due to the track though: last year's track was a Soft 6 but the race was 3.5s quicker. Makybe Diva's last Cup was also on a Soft 5 and was 5 seconds quicker.

The 600m sectional was 34.75s - there have only been two quicker these past 10 years (since they were reported). 2012's Green Moon was in 34.07s and 2015's Prince Of Penzance was in 34.4s. They obviously had fuel left to burn.

The field was very slow from the 2200m through to the 1000m mark. The winning horses were able to position themselves at the front of the pack during this slow section. They got a rest and made it difficult for others to run them down in the straight. The horses that were 2nd, 3rd and 4th at the 1400m mark went on to be 1st, 2nd and 3rd across the line.

Because fatigue was not really a factor the field finished very close together; the first 12 finishers were within 4 lengths. The previous lowest place to finish within 4 lengths (this century) was 9th. The average distance a 12th place horse finished behind the winner prior to this renewal was 10.8 lengths.

The winner was very atypical given that it wasn't really a staying contest. Of the past 20 winners, Vow And Declare had the highest: Dosage Index, Centre of Distribution, and Conduit Index; and the lowest: Stamina figure (equal), third triad and difference between third and first triad. These are all indicators that a horse is more suited to shorter rather than longer races.

All credit to the placing jockeys: they turned the race into the kind of contest that would best suit their mounts. Brickbats for the other jockeys whom were unsuited by this turn of events: they just sat back and let it turn into a procession.

Can't really look at barrier distances because data for several horses is clearly wrong. They currently have Constantinople doing a 200m sectional in just over 9 seconds and running 202m further, for example.

'The system' had the winner on its top rung (among 5 horses). Master Of Reality slipped off the second rung inside the last few minutes with his price wound out to $26. So "posterity" didn't lose the trifecta on a protest!

The Conduit Mare Stamina 17 figure wasn't a factor this year given that stamina wasn't required.

Aspro's Melbourne Cup System had the winner among its shortlist also, so it does indeed sift the best local candidates.


The end!

The distances have been updated. The results for this particular race were very up and down; here's the collated data for the past 3 years though (i.e. since they started making it available):