I have a yahoo email address for you. Is this still valid, as I have emails from March & April from you? A couple of overall, not specific WTA queries, that I would like mention to you. Hence they are not really for this forum.

Moeeee - thanks for your thoughts during an ordinary week. Kirilenko lost and Razzano v Molik was void (see earlier post).

The bet on Koukalova was a personal call. The value was rather slim but background info not included in the model swayed my decision.

Waynet - apologies, I hadn't checked the email for a while. It's my secondary address to avoid spam etc. Fire away, I'll get back to you as soon as I can.

My email's woof9898@yahoo.com.au if anybody else has querys.

Thanks.

Bets 200; Won 129; Lost 71
Units Staked: 180.5 units; Won 19.93 units; ROI 11%

Koukalova managed a fairly comfortable win last night.


Koukalova v Shaughnessy
SF Hertogenbosch.

Not for the faint-hearted as this should be close. Shaughnessy's been lucky to progress as two of her three opponents have retired so hard to judge her current form. Prior to this tournament she'd only won consecutive games on two occasions this season so she's had a fairly ordianary year. However Meghann's a decent grass player with a good volley and plenty of experience. Koukalova has the game to win and is very respectable on grass. She's played well this week against reasonable opponents and has shown considerable determination. Having played more matches this week, I rate her a 63.1% chance of winning.

Koukalova $1.69 @ Pinnacle Half Unit

Marco,I understand that you are miles in front,and I'm miles behind.
But $1.69 is 59.2%,so doesn't seem worth betting on.Only a 4% increase.Am I doing something wrong here?

Well, she won, and I guess that's what matters.

Moeee - Your point/concern on the size of the overlay is a good one. In short, I have a sample of about 3200 bets with the perceived overlay (this needs more explanation but will suffice for now). I break these overlays into groups for analytical purposes; 0-5%, 5-10%, 10-15% etc etc. The 0-5% group has returned a long term profit so I don't mind the 'skinny' value. I appreciate my sample is rather small but there doesn't appear to be too much variation (I have more than 40000 matches in my database but only have odds for about 3200). Funnily enough the lowest return comes at the higher 40% plus overlays (I could speculate why but there's not enough space).

Thanks for the question.

Bets 201; Won 130; Lost 71
Units Staked: 181 units; Won 20.23 units; ROI 11.2%

Koukalova managed another good win. Her price came in so to keep things fair, I'll record her as $1.60 rather than the $1.69 (half unit).

No bets tonight. Clijsters should win but her odds are too short. No value in the outsider as the bookies margins too tight.

Koukalova v Safarova prices are spot on for mine. Hard to split these two but Koukalova deserves to be a very slight favourite.

Picking the winner at Wimbly this year look's like a tough proposition.

In no particular order we have:

Defending Champ Maria Sharapova who has won 2 of the 5 biggest tournaments over the past year. She's also on a 17 match grass winning streak but at the same time has won only one low-ranked title (Birmingham) since thumped by Davenport at Indian Wells.

Davenport, while ranked No. 1 and a past Champion (1999), hasn't won a major title in the past year and hasn't played any grass warm-ups. In fact, she's played very few tournaments since the end of the hardcourt swing.

Then there's Serena Williams whose Wimbly record stands at 20-1 over the past 3 years. However she's only played one match - a first round loss in Rome - since hurting her ankle during the American green clay swing.

Next is Henin-Hardenne who hasn't lost a game since the end of the Hardcourt season. However she's never won Wimbledon in 4 attempts, she hasn't played any grass warm-ups and recently withdrew from Eastbourne on the advice of her doctors. Apparently the virus that kept her out of tennis for so long is still lingering in her system and she was in need of rest (though I've learnt punters oppose Justine at their peril)

Then there's Clijster's who's just won Eastbourne and made the semi's at Wimbledon at her last attempt (though she doesn't have a great history at the tournament). Then there's Mauresmo who just lost in the first round of Eastbourne having said she was there to work hard on her grass game, and the likes of Kuznetsova, Venus Williams (2 times Champion plus 2 times finalist) and the 'nervy' Petrova who all have some claims.

From a betting point of view this looks wide open with some great opportunities against underdone players such as Davenport, the Williams sisters and to some extent Hardenne who are all first-up on grass. The upsets will come - it's just a matter of picking when.

Clijster's and Sharapova are the pick of the bunch at the moment but I don't say that with any real conviction. Plus Clijster's is always mentally vulnerable if she comes up against Henin-Hardenne or Serena (which may happen in semi's).

Notable retirements in matches leading up to Wimbledon include:
Dementieva (retired Eastbourne: Shoulder)
Bartoli (retired Eastbourne: Left foot)
Groenefeld (retired Eastbourne: Thigh)


Some background info can be found at:


http://www.wtatour.com/newsroom/sto...cle_7394_rx.asp (preview)

http://www.wimbledon.org/en_GB/news...8907456644.html (preview)

http://www.tennisreporters.net/sub_...ers_061805.html (interesting article on Clijsters)

http://msn.foxsports.com/tennis/story/3695184 (interesting article on Williamses)

Wimbledon Round 1

It will pay to shop around as there's quite a bit of variation in prices.

I'll split the First Round into Monday & Tuesday (two seperate posts). There's a lot of games so I'll only hi-light the main points.


MONDAY

Kremer v Spears

Kremer 35/22 on grass - her best surface. Shes in average form but has many appearances at Wimbledon. Spears is also in average form, is 3/6 on grass and has only one other appearance at Wimbledon.

Kremer $1.65 @ 5Dimes 1 Unit
(better prices at smaller bookies)


Obata v Irvin

Obata is 24/19 on grass, has played 4 warm-ups prior to Wimbly and came through Qualies in straight sets. Irvin is 4/10 on grass with 5 previous Round 1 exits at Wimbly. She's also first-up on grass today.

Obata $1.60 @ Will Hill 1 Unit
(and smaller bookies)


Tanasugarn v Sprem

A close match on paper. Tanasugarn 51/28 on grass with 6 fourth round appearances at Wimbly. She's had reasonable lead up form going 5/3 but can be a bit 'up-and-down'. Sprem is 6/4 on grass, has terrible lead up form (one game for a loss) and has many off-court problems which have seen her put in some woeful performances lately.

Tanasugarn $2.10 @ 5Dimes 1 Unit.


Morigami v Mirza

Morigami more experienced on grass with 17/14 record and 3 prior Wimbly appearances. Mirza 1/2 on grass (these games all in past 2 weeks) and has no prior Wimbly appearances. Morigami has slightly better lead up form.

Morigami $2.00 @ Ladbrokes Half Unit
(price also available at a few other bookies)



Washington Frazer

The veteran Frazer has plenty of experience and a better record (22/18). Deserves to be favourite but Washington has very good lead up form and is a good outside chance. Her 15/11 record is respectable.

Washington $2.60 @ Will Hill Half Unit
(price also available at a few other bookies)



Chakvetadze v Jankovic

Neither girl has much experience on grass and both have similar lead up form on grass. Chakvetadze has recent wins over Asagoe, Maleeva and Brandi and is 7/2 over past 2 weeks. Jankovic is 5/2 over past 2 weeks and made final of Birmingham. Should be close - value with outsider.

Chakvetadze $2.48 @ 5Dimes Half Unit


Osterloh v Strycova

Lesser known players but Osterloh is 21/21 on grass with 8 Wimbly appearances (best result = 4th Round). Osterloh's only had 1 warm-up game - a loss. Strycova is a clay specialist - likes it slow - and is first-up on grass. Is 3/3 on grass and her two Wimbly appearances resulted in First Round exits.

Osterloh $2.10 5Dimes Half Unit
(price also available at a few other bookies)

A couple of fun/interesting links for outright markets:


http://news.bbc.co.uk/sol/shared/sp...dictor_mens.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sol/shared/sp...ctor_womens.stm