partypooper,

The first six TAB numbers is a definite 'improving' filter after culling to the first five lines. But, the most powerful filter is race type selection. 'All handicaps' is still far too broad to be successful.

On average my race culling filter will see me analyse 16-18 races of the usual 32 available across S/M/B/A Saturday metro.

If I can give the simplest piece of advice to anybody on the punt, that is you cannot bet and win by betting in every race. It is impossible...


Cheers,
Luckyboy

__________________
Form is Temporary, Class is Permanent.

It's a tricky one, knowing which races to bet on and which to not. I always look at these simple type systems, the other day I thought I had a good one after looking at a "few days" of racing. Looking at the top 3 opening favs on IAS and backing the one that firmed the most up till a couple of minutes prior to jump. The first couple of days was amazing, wow, how long has this been going on. Then the usual wheel falls off trick.

Apart from these "simple systems" I spend a lot of time analysing sectional times and watching replays of races and transporting data to spreadsheets. Over the last two years I'm quite happy with my results and strike rate and profit. But this of course is not a "system". This only applies to saturday racing in sydney and melbourne.

I'd like to come up with something to fill in the gaps on week days when something like what we are talking about here works. I've thought about buying that book from aaaaaaa I think called "Market Forces" which I tend to think somehow applies to what we are talking about. The couple of books I have already bought from them arent to bad, but they do seem to just advertise their product. I cant say that I have really won on anything in those books. Has anyone else bought this book and thought it ok...?

Paul

careful there Pauls, getting close to contravening Forum rules, but in short, I admit (several years ago) to buying a couple of "things" the result was "KRAPP"

I've had a bit of success backing 2nd and 3rd pre-post favorites from the Winning Post at Sat Metro. as long as their SP is above $3.50. It would probably work just as well from any other form guide source.

I put in the filter that must have started within 21 days and were not 1st up.
Works like a rocket some days but can be tardy on others. Long term, I wouldn't have a clue how it performs as I've never used it every week over a decent period of time. It certainly catches quite a few winners though.

Just another angle that some may like to try. This can be done race to race or meeting to meeting. take first 5 in betting, bet $2 all up the two favs, + $1 all up the other 4 with the fav in the 2nd race. Now say the fav won, check what your expected return is should the 2nd one win eg. First fav won 6-4, next one is showing $4 so return is potentially $20 with $6 outlayed. so now decide taking the best possible prices from different bookies what to cover from 2nd to 5th fav. in 2nd race.

Now say the fav in the first race lost but you hit the winner in 5 , repeat, calculate the potential returns should the fav win in the 2nd race, and cover to profit or break even the other 4.

Now you will hit most doubles, but you have the added benefit of knowing what the potential return is B4 you make the bets on the 2nd race, and of being able to make your bets where you like or tote.

PS I've used $1 unit here for demonstration purposes only.

I just did a random check of your theory. The first two races at Lismore today.
The order of betting in the first race was $2.80, $3.80, $4.60, $8 and $10. Third fav won at around the $4.60 mark. (I am using IAS prices around the second last fluc). Race 2, order of betting $3.60, $4, $5, $5.50 and $7.

The fav won at around the $3.60 mark. That would give you a return of $16.60. For interest sake the returns on the second leg would have been around $16.60, $18.40, $23, $25.30 and $32.20.

So in this case you wouldnt quite get your $20 back if the first couple won.

Interesting, hmmm, shall think on this more

Paul

There was $9 available on Cameo Queen.

When I say the "first" race I mean the first race that you choose to bet on, not literally the first race of the day. The idea can work using race 1 to 2, race 2 to 3 etc or any 2 races, different meetings OR even different days.

Party, I have been round this that often I'm giddy.
As you say, getting it into profit territory is the trick.
Am now just back to using it as an initial culling process.

Paul, I've been down the IAS opener track too, in fact before phones were allowed on course. I used to go to the track and ring a mate who was sitting at home on the computer and give him the course openers, we then backed whatever Read was holding under. Worked like a charm for about 3 months, then the wheels fell off that too. Sad but true.

Back to the drawing board (again)

Yes I made it pay in the UK, but there was one massive difference. Bets there are written down and settled in the order that they are written. eg. $10 win "Fred" 4.40pm Newbury. $10 win My Oath 2.30pm Sandown. STOP AT A WINNER

Do you follow? so after the 2.30 race is run you KNOW what your fate is with "FRED" in the 4.30 race. so....... say My Oath wins you know you are set to win if FRED loses or WINS, so you can now cover several horses and in many cases the whole field in the 4.30 race, it was lovely!

Almost makes me wanna go back there........... nah maybe not!