Well thought out Brendon, and yes the other winner was Rock Home Late, up 3kgs from its previous run (beaten 3.5 lengths) 28 days prior. I'll re read your other comments tomorrow, when my head is clearer, just had a nice glass of sherry while watching a movie.

Paul

There are certain rules to handicapping for weight, but there is also subjective opinion involved that can affect the final weight given to a horse.


For those interested, here is a good article on handicapping by a professional handicapper, Mark McGrath who has been working as a member of the [Australian Jockey Club] Handicapping Panel for over 7yrs.

http://www.ausrace.com/art/handicapping.htm

I like the 3kg increase from the actual weights, or 2kg increase from the limit as the cutting off point.

When I looked closely at 4 races, I could see all kinds of variables (track cond, distance pref, etc..) sticking their beaks in and muddying the waters. But not too many won above the already discussed increase.

Lakonian had peaked against Shocking in the previous race. Three rides in a row with big class increase each time. 3kg was always going to drag it back to the field as it was difficult to see it improve on its previous race. Rock Home Late was also given 3. But there was plenty of room for improvement.

Maybe the lesson to learn is stay away (or lay) when there is a decent weight increase but with little room for improvement?

Rather that trying to work out all the ins and outs of weight penalties, I'll stick to the KISS principal with weights. If a horse goes up more than 2kg I leave it alone.

I like the old saying: 'When one tries to grasp too much [info.], it's easy to end up with nothing'.