I will soon have the results of 1,000 races (I know still very small in the overall scheme of things) but when I have the magic 1,000 I will post the difference between the favourite at 10 seconds and the favourite at closing (this is on Betfair). On the Tote I know it can change dramatically, so it will be interesting to see what happens on betfair. At this stage I have no idea as I have not done the exercise .. I will wait until I get the 1,000 races.

Fred

FALSE FAV STATS ...
Favs stats with below the 30%SR industry average.

Favs that ran within 1-7 days 1201m - 3500m SR = 23%

7yr old fav = 23%

Favs that ran exactly 5th last start = 22%

Favs beaten 5.1+ lengths in the last 1-28 days ago = 19% ***

Favs 1601-1799m = 10% ***

Favs going up in Dist 201m+ 22%

Anything around the 22% mark, makes for good lay betting if we can get a price of <= 4.00 to lay, even if its in-running.

Bet 1.25% of bank fixed stakes.
This allows for approx 22+ outs.

*** Stand out the most stats.

__________________
Cheers.

Another False fav stat...
(Ignoring Hurdles)

1301m-3500m with 59.0kg exactly ignoring apprentice claims = 9%SR ***

__________________
Cheers.

As promised, in the thread "A theory" I have posted some figures after 711 races based on their Ranked positions at 10 seconds and close .. Fred

1/ When I back them.

2/ They don't run fast enough.

2 cents worth, after many MANY years of research of mainly Pre-Post favs, and every filter known to man (inc the ridiculous)

The end result, and I'm not taking thousands of races I'm talking about 10,000's races, is:

most of the fav filters do indeed increase S/R (minimally) but in every scenario the dividend /(SP) spirals in exact proprtion (down that is)

having said that there is certain combinations of filters that produce break even situations year in year out, now, therein is a hint of wealth!!~

Partypooper pray tell Please

Tell us please.

A good evens staking plan can bring it into profit.

I'd have to agree with the above statement, getting the best price possible is one of the key filters, the other is observing the track money and betting when the climate is right.

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I refrained from actually suggesting filters as we all have our pet ones, but just to give a scenario:

take Shauns' idea, Radio top pick + Tipsters top pick on tracks dead or better.
where they both agree.

Ok, now delete Jumps, Amatuer, Apprentices races, ladies only races, races for Fillies And Mares only, horses ridden by a 3kg claimer,races of 2000+, races with 15+ runners , and horses having its first run, its still a bet

IF it is fav 1 min b4 the jump, or if you need to place bets b4 racing its a bet IF it is Pre-Post fav (always using the same source)

This has shown a break even (win) and a slight profit for the place,

but also the idea has shown only a 1% loss with no filters at all. over 1100 bets + (for the place that is)