OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

#11

24th October 2011, 10:07 AM

lomaca

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 1,096

Quote:

Originally Posted by aussielongboat

when you start saying things like "tab = 3" and "last start =5" - IMHO you are just back fitting a lucky set of numbers which may never be repeated.
you may as well say
and " only barrier = 7, 10 and 11" or
"Richard Callender has 4 smokes between races 3 and 4"
just my opinion.
good luck

Aussie.

Too right mate, here is a simple "system", bet on No 7 when between $4 and $8 and it's a winner!

Well it was in the backfitted world, but in the future and real world?
Your guess is as good as mine, I wouldn't follow it.

Class horse in a rubbish race is the go! And they don't have to be Black caviar class either, it's all relative!

Good luck

#12

25th October 2011, 07:15 AM

Bhagwan

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 2,428

Yes, they are all good points .

I must have stuffed something up there.

Revised RULES
Win Prc <= 9.80
Last start <= 3rd
Don Scott = 1
Place Ranking <= 2
Days Last start <= 7

46.5% SR
33.60 % POT

__________________
Cheers.

#13

25th October 2011, 08:51 AM

aussielongboat aussielongboat is offline

Member

Join Date: Nov 2010

Posts: 258

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bhagwan

Yes, they are all good points .

I must have stuffed something up there.

Revised RULES
Win Prc <= 9.80
Last start <= 3rd
Don Scott = 1
Place Ranking <= 2
Days Last start <= 7

46.5% SR
33.60 % POT

actually you can drop the SP filter and get this:
Test your Horse Racing System - Results

Below are the results of your system. If you were testing Laying it is against the higher price available. if you test betting its agaisnt the lower available value on betfair.

There were 26612 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. We update when we get time.

There were 45 selections for the System
There were 20 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 44.44%
There were $57.45 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $12.45 or a percentage profit/loss of 27.67%
-------
i dislike price filters because in the real world they can be a real pain - what i mean is who wants to sit there all day waiting for something to go from 9.9 to 9.80 for example and then the other question is what tote do you take etc.
i find life much easier when i leave them out.

#14

25th October 2011, 09:40 AM

Stix

Member

Join Date: Apr 2005

Posts: 3,012

Sorry, if it's been asked before....What is the length of time the database covers UB? years, year, 6mths, less?

Thanks!

__________________
Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!

#15

25th October 2011, 09:42 AM

aussielongboat aussielongboat is offline

Member

Join Date: Nov 2010

Posts: 258

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stix

Sorry, if it's been asked before....What is the length of time the database covers UB? years, year, 6mths, less?

Thanks!

i think i read from august 2011.

one of the very early posts

#16

25th October 2011, 05:51 PM

UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline

Member

Join Date: Sep 2011

Posts: 1,561

Quote:

Originally Posted by aussielongboat

i think i read from august 2011.

one of the very early posts

Yep Its early August (6th August) 2011. Doesn't cover enough I know but that is when I started collecting the data so a few months results are better then nothing.

#17

26th October 2011, 03:06 AM

Bhagwan

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 2,428

Thanks once again UB for starting that data base.

It definitely adds interest to this site.

__________________
Cheers.

#18

26th October 2011, 04:29 AM

Bhagwan

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 2,428

This is a Backing plan

RULES
Days Last start <=7
UniTAB Ranking <=5
Field Size <=10

Result
21% SR
26% POT

__________________
Cheers.

#19

1st November 2011, 07:54 PM

UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline

Member

Join Date: Sep 2011

Posts: 1,561

Quote:

Originally Posted by UselessBettor

Something I was playing with and thought I would share from my website for testing your systems:

There were 24142 horse form lines in the database at this point in time.
There were 160 selections for the System
There were 100 which Lost (did not win race) for the System for a strike rate of 62.5%
You had to pay out $129.81 but brought in $152 after 5% commission. This means a Profit or loss of $22.19 or a percentage profit/loss of 13.87%

I called this the 3333 system because the rules are as follows:

Win Price <= 3
TAB Number <= 3
Barrier <= 3
Place Strike Rate Rank <= 3
Bet Type = LAY

I encourage others to share the systems they find. If you post it as above then its easy to run a future test in a week, month, year when there is more data in the database and compare the results. You can then see if the system held up over time.

This system continues to show promise. 46 selections with a 5% profit.

There were 206 selections for the System
There were 126 which Lost (did not win race) for the System for a strike rate of 61.17%
You had to pay out $171.63 but brought in $195.7 after 5% commission. This means a Profit or loss of $24.07 or a percentage profit/loss of 11.68%

Thread Tools	Search this Thread
Show Printable Version Email this Page	Search this Thread: Advanced Search
Display Modes
Linear Mode Switch to Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode

	To advertise on these forums, e-mail us.