The favs percentage has remained the same.
The average dividend has remained the same.
Overall the estimate of the crowd of the favs chances has remained the same . But the overlay/underlay to the actual available odds from race to race has dimished.

It may have been 30 years ago that favs were 20% underbet on X occassions and 20% overbet on X occasions which cancel each other out. Today the 20% overbet is less likely to occur and its more like a 3% overbet or underbet range.

This is my thought on what has happened over time and has been researched by lots of people smarter then me. The strike rate is irrelevant. The average dividend is irrelevant. Its the opporuntity to take advantage of mis pricing which is relevant and the general research done by people much smarter then me (uni professors, doctrate research) indicates that the range of mispricing has been reducing more and more but especially in the last 10 years.

Thanks for the reply UB.
So, over the past 10 years the horse the crowd have made their favourite is starting at around the right price more often but that one they've bet on is not winning any more or less than before. Is that it?

[QUOTE=UselessBettor]
It may have been 30 years ago that favs were 20% underbet on X occassions and 20% overbet on X occasions which cancel each other out. Today the 20% overbet is less likely to occur and its more like a 3% overbet or underbet range.

How is the 20% and the 3% overlay calculated? Is it calculated by the Max and Min range?

So there is now a plethora of freely available real-time information, making the market for WIN betting much more transparent and efficient from a pricing perspective.

Would seem to indicate that bigger opportunities now lie in the multiples or an arbitrage angle of some kind?

LG

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The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

It's all the the first post of this thread guys

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_for...?t=23914&page=1

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Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash