Thanks for all the replies, to be truthful I thought that the Late Mail was pretty good but I never really took much notice when they lost and I thought they went ok.

Note to self. Have to be more dilligent in future.

Star

Just tread VERY carefully is all.

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Jose'.

And do some research. It's all there (for this system at least).

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Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

A few years ago, I thought I noticed something. Didn't happen very often, but every now and then, a horse given out as a late mail tip would actually be ignored by the public and would start at $10+ on the TAB and some would get up. That little system seemed to do okay. Now, I'm guessing that was probably just a complete fluke and more than likely someone will come back with results that it's a big loser over time. But, depending on the results, it still could be something worth looking at and perhaps using in conjunction with other ideas???

Perhaps someone could look at the results of late mail tips in different TAB dividend ranges?

I think those at $10 or more will be a greater loss due to the fav long shot bias which exists on the tote. But I'll check that price range for you.

For the $10+ range there were 1620 selections and it lost 34% or a loss of around 548 units.

Gee, even I with a quick glance at a form guide can come up with better then that result.

Still, I feel something might be missing from the equation. Now, it is true I only look at the treble races, maybe more research is done on that by the Late Mailers.

Generally, one of the three LM tips seems to win very often. Probably no way of checking that unless your data basis record all thathose facts.

Although I am surprised you can give the results of my original question. I am impressed.

I wonder if we only concentrated on Saturday's Metro races if the results are just as bad.

I just feel their is an angle in here somewhere for a quick fun system without doing your pants.

Star

UB

Can you explain your statement for me about the favourite -- longshot bias on the tote.

I understand the Favourite part but the longshot intrigues me. Do you have definite figures or is it just that you have ancedotal evidence that this is so.

It is something I have never thought off, so it is quite interesting.

Star

As I suspected.

What was the time period you looked at?

Its well researched. The evidence shows (espeically with bookies and the tab's) that the favourites are underbet(more value) and the longshots are overbet (less value). This bias is eroded significantly on betfair though and it has been found to be non existant.

Personally I think it isn't eroded on betfair BUT its important to understand which markets it is and isn't affecting. Any market which is not close to 100% is definitely not worth trying to use it on. But those closer to 100% do on occassions follow very similar pricing to the tabs, which suggests that it still exists if the weight of dumb money is available. Generally though on betfair the dumb money is not available in large enough quantities for it to be taken advantage of.