Why all the focus on convoluted formulas? Its easy to fool yourself that you are doing something worthwhile and useful just because its based on some (apparently clever) mathematical calculation.

The easiest way to determine class and the class runners in the field is to glance through their form classify them based on the class of races each horse has won, been competitive in or failed. It takes about 20 seconds per horse to give you a feel...probably the same time or even less than it does to perform some of the calculations suggested.

The end result is a much more reliable indicator of what level each horse has won or been competitive in. That is something practical that can be used in form analysis rather than a number with a decimal point that doesn't really tell you much at all.

osulldj,

All very true. I guess it is a case (for me) of looking for a quantitative assessment then qualifying it in the fashion you prescribe.

I am interested in 'class' as I feel this is an often overlooked area of a horse’s chance for the rank 'n' file of punters.


Cheers,
Luckyboy

Puntz
Before app claim.

Lucky
Only now & then.

Dan
More than one way to skin a cat. Most of my profit comes without looking at form at all.

[quote]
On 2004-04-29 13:46, osulldj wrote:
Why all the focus on convoluted formulas? Its easy to fool yourself that you are doing something worthwhile and useful just because its based on some (apparently clever) mathematical calculation.

The easiest way to determine class and the class runners in the field is to glance through their form classify them based on the class of races each horse has won, been competitive in or failed.

osulldj: Easier said than done is some instances - all OK when looking at the class issue in the group races, but no so easily done when considering those restricted entry type of race, for instance S/C1MW and S/CMWLY - can be very confusing for someone not at the same level of yourself in their understanding of the formguide.

I see nothing wrong with the formulas offered in response to the original request. If they work then it's worth the effort.



[ This Message was edited by: La Mer on 2004-04-29 18:52 ]

Strewth,

Never seen such contorted crap in my life.

Mathematical formulas to work out class [the forums full of accountants] ?

It only takes a couple of minutes to work out the varying class in a race without going near a calculator.

Counting grains of rice to arrive at a kilo works too, but so does a set of scales.

:smile:


[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-04-30 05:01 ]

osulldj, I think that is a good way, but as La Mer said, "all OK when looking at the class issue in the group restricted entry type of races, but it's not as easy for some".

I think prize money is the best way to determine class...I usually look at the horses last run and match that prize money with todays race prize money. If today's prize money lower then last race prize money by atleast $10,000 then he is running a easer class race. Example: Todays race prize money $50,000 and last start prize money $150,000. I'm more confident about them if they ran a place last start or short margin, 4th and up position. Anyway thats what I do. Good luck guy's.

Where is the best place on the net to find what the prize money of a race was worth.....most horse form does not show how much the race was worth that the horse competed in last time out.....forget those restricted events....the reson those horse are in them is because they are no ************ good and can't win in open company anyway

[ This Message was edited by: puntz on 2004-05-06 12:31 ]

[quote]
On 2004-04-30 09:56, puntz wrote:
A race which got my attention yesterday and I wish I had done some form but totally missed it, was Ballarat race 6.
5 won and paid $91.00 (NSWTAB)
Why then did number 5 win ?
Was it class, was it this,that or the other ?
How could anyone pick this "longshot" and how did the fav. go so low and did not win?
The contrasting difference in prices obviously made many punters think number 4 would win. Ultimately, was class a factor on that race ? Or was it hype that represented both the winners and the losers price ?

Puntz: Interesting post. Firstly, I don't think the original question was about picking a winner, more about establishing the class. Secondly, as a matter of interest, using the formula I posted the other day (plus a number of additional factors), then #2 Future Perfect was identified as the 'class' runner of the field. However, it should be added that this race rated poorly overall when considering the 'class' factor.

The winner rated second last re the 'class' factor.

BTW, this process is number crunched via my ratings program, taking about 10 seconds to determine.

Shaun,
Cyberhorse form includes the $ value of the race as part of each horse's past runs.
If you're only interested in a horse's last three runs you can get this for free by looking at the "current form" area on their site(virtualformguide.com)