thetout, I like that one , not many rules, I like a system that is easy. It reminds e of one that I devised a while ago when I was being too unrealistic regarding POT.

What I'm actually looking for now is one that will DEFINITLY break even at WORST, do you think this one fits that catagory?? if so what about if the last 2 rules are reduced to "must have ran in past 21 days)?? or maybe even 14 days??


PS I'm talking about backing for the place there as I need VERY regular collects for my idea to work.


[ This Message was edited by: partypooper on 2004-07-10 00:49 ]

cameron398, just my 2cents worth, 2 rules that I have found invaluable as filters for favorites or any other selections are as follows:

(1) Don't back any horse that that finished more than 3.5 lengths from the winner last start.

(2) Don't back any horse that is set to carry 3.5 k'gs up or down from it's set weight last run, (ignoring all allowances)

As a footnote if backing for the place, a horse that has run within 100 metres of todays distance at least once in its last 3 runs, and one with at least 50% place S/R DEFINITLY lifts S/R BUT depending on the method of selection may also result in a drop in POT so what Mark says has some relevance as well!

Yes Mr Tout, we all never stop learning. One question for you, do you make a living from this game?



Thought not.

--------------------------------------

For Victorian TAB meetings since 1/Jan/2003 :

Total runs = 66506
Races = 6210

Hits%:

1.Fav: 1st=30.90, 2nd=19.02, 3rd=14.27
2.Fav: 1st=19.47, 2nd=17.52, 3rd=14.70
3.Fav: 1st=13.42, 2nd=14.75, 3rd=14.41

If the punter bets $1 on each of the top 3 favs to win on every race (with the bookmakers, at SP):

POT:

1.Fav = -8.65%
2.Fav = -13.48%
3.Fav = -22.83%

(I'm lazy - separate pct for diff SPs is too much work right now. But from memory of analysis I did a few months ago, the shorter the SP, the less the loss-on-turnover, especially the odds-on favs. I remember this because it was a surprising result, contradicting the old saying that "Odds on, look on")

Hope this helps.



[ This Message was edited by: tandy on 2004-07-16 19:12 ]