Numerator,

A couple of points on your post.
1. I think when you are looking at this you have to group the "marginal change" ones in with same price grouping. Because of roundings, etc small changes are pretty much meaningless.
2. On your figures there is very little difference between the strike rate of all the groups - certainly with the smallish sample size you could not say with any confidence that "firmers" are more likely to win than "drifters"
3. The larger loss by drifters may be caused by the "false favourites" on TAB caused by large allup investments as per Mr Magic's post? Don't really know (also the difference is only 5% from the average - it may not really be significant in a larger sample size).

My conclusion from these figures is never bet on TAB favourite regardless of whether it is firming or drifting - look for the horses with value in the $8 - $20 range :smile:

Grasscutter - I agree with those conclusions!

Thanks Mr Magic, I never even thought of that.

I like Privateer's attitude. Sounds like he picks his horses first and then only bets them when the price goal is met.

I'm less discerning, but I might check my figures and see if any short priced losers have done my dinner. Doubt it, a bet is a bet in my method.

Placegetter

Hi Guys,

Have a look at http://www.maxpages.com/nickdimou for an extremely interesting read on this topic.

This guy's not selling his method of "following the money" he gives it for free. It seems like a fairly in-depth look at TAB fluctuations and how to isolate the "educated" firmers from the "follow the leaders". I haven't tested the method because I personally don't bet with the TAB but it makes for some interesting reading. You just have to put up with a couple of annoying pop up ads.

Cheers

The problem with following TAB fluctuations is this:

1. Many bookies lay bets off on the tote when the odds are over the S/P. This gives a false reflection of betting trends. Let's say I am a bookie offering 10/1 on a selection. The TAB price is 16/1....not that uncommon. Someone idles up to me with $500 each way. Two minutes before the jump the 16/1 tote odd drifts from $16.00 to $16.80. The bookie lays off at least part of that $500 bet so if it wins he only has to payout at 10/1 and pockets the rest. Not bad eh?
Seen it done in disguise with a runner many many times over.

2. Most activity is in the final two minutes before the jump and not updated until just after the jump. The TAB computer system takes quite a few seconds to finally calculate the pools and final dividends.

3. Now if we are talking S/P that's a whole different story. You need to have a bookie who is willing to give you the firmers and betting trends. Or you have to be oncourse to track it yourself.

4. In following the smart money on the TAB you are losing all value and usually getting under the real price/chance about the horse.
Try following the drifters on the TAB as the average punter goes for the favorite. There is a lot of good value on the tote leaving out the favorite. If you consider the favorite to be a good thing, then either bet with a bookie or keep out of the race.

My advice only, and hope it helps.

P.S. mrmagic - very good and important point. Bookies do lay off to other bookies. The oldest trick in the book is to accept your $10,000 bet - AND NOT FIRM your odds, giving you time to lay off at decent odds to other bookies. Only after the layoff (within a few seconds), you firm the odds to ensure the other guys still offer as good or better than your price.

Another interesting point is to look at the favorites that won on the TAB and compare the final price with the S/P, amazing how little value you get on the TAB compared to S/P.


[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-06-04 14:02 ]

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-06-04 14:04 ]

I'll give my bit for what its wortth.
I too have carryed out an analysis of the so called 'Smart Money' and it really isnt all that smart at all.
Over a 12 month period monitoring 8 races a day from different venues the runner the most money going on it only wins around 39% of it races.
My stat's revealed placings in 68% of races.
In both the win and place results the average return about 20c under the break even return needed.
This is very marginally better than backing favourites but still not profible.

Its easy to get hooked at first glance, but over the long term you WILL LOOSE

Dude.