I'll give my bit for what its wortth.
I too have carryed out an analysis of the so called 'Smart Money' and it really isnt all that smart at all.
Over a 12 month period monitoring 8 races a day from different venues the runner the most money going on it only wins around 39% of it races.
My stat's revealed placings in 68% of races.
In both the win and place results the average return about 20c under the break even return needed.
This is very marginally better than backing favourites but still not profible.

Its easy to get hooked at first glance, but over the long term you WILL LOOSE

Dude.