Hay Chee,
How do you get your money back when an odds on favourite gets rolled?

Double up?
Cheers.




[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-08-05 23:36 ]

He may have a point with filed trifecta's. I know it's only a one-off but Lonhro x f x f would have cost $56 & paid $145.10 in Qld, that's almost 13/8. I wonder if enough of them pay overs to make it worthwhile.
Just noticed Rubitano, cost $12 wins & pays $5.50

HayChee,

Hacche, is that you? Similar name, similar grammatic style, similar sentiments only now you're talking about racing and not casinos or pokies.

Still can't work out if you're for real or having a dig but the new pseudonym and change of tact is giving me a clue.

My Spider sense is tingling.

I agree with Testa's view for only backing the horse I feel will/should win. Chasing value is like chasing the winners, all you do is chase. The game for me is getting value for the winning horse. eg. $3.50 is better than $3.10. Or in the case of Rubitano in the autumn $18.00. My cutoff point is at evens, $2.00, even for a deadset horse like Sunline and now Lonhro.

If less I sit out and just watch the race and enjoy the event. I know I'm mad but that way I make money AND remember great races.

good punting,
Horse cents

Hay Chee;

Please say your joking.

__________________
Cheers.

[quote]
On 2002-08-05 23:27, Equine Investor wrote:
How do you get your money back when an odds on favourite gets rolled?

How do you get your money back when a 10/1 shot , or a 20/1 shot gets rolled?

What happens if you like the odds on fav but being TO cautious you back another horse as it is "VALUE" and the odds on fav wins and instead of winning a little on the race you lose.

This might seem cliched but backing a winner gives you confidence , whether it be at odds on or 20/1 , a win is a win.

Confidence is the most important thing in racing , its like someone like Adam Gilchrist hitting the ball left right and centre and the commentator says "He is seeing the ball like a football" , in racing it could be interpreted as "He is seeing the form like he's looking through a magnifying glass".

If your first two selections for the day were odds on and they won surely that would give you confidence for the rest of the day.

__________________
Good luck and good punting.

And remember a profit a day keeps the Girlfriend/Wife away.

The problem that I see with Odds-on horses is that you are never going to get a big over - if you are lucky you might get 10c or 20c more than the fair price - with $8-$20 horses you can often get overs of $3-$10 (in my opinion!). When you are operating on such a slim margin you have very little scope for error - you would certainly never want to back these on the TAB because the price can move by this much between the jump and when the divs are declared.

If you are backing a 10% chance at $15 and it doesn't win it doesn't really matter - you only expect them to win 1 in 10 times and you still have another 14 chances to square up. If you are backing a $1.50 favourite and it doesn't win you have to win the next 2 just to get back to square before you even think about making a profit.

So if there is an odds-on favourite that you are confident will win - don't back anything in the race. If you think it may lose then look for the possible winners that you can get a good price for.

__________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

All the confidence in the world won't help your bank balance at the end of the day.

If you back a 10/1 shot and it gets rolled, you stood to GAIN 10 times your money. Odds on gets rolled not only did you risk $10.00 to win $7.00, but unless you're a freak, you have to increase your bets just to break even....or wait 2/3 months for another odds on favourite with the same credentials and class to even break even. And if that gets rolled by a neck - what then?

I agree value is value, but odds on is never value in my book - as NO horse has more than a 50% chance in a race and therefore worth more than even money.

EI ,

I'm not saying to back odds on favs , i'm saying if you feel confident that the horse will win then either back it or stay out of the race.

Surely if you backed a horse in a race you would have to feel confident it will win the race or why else would you back it , so then why if you thought the odds on pop was a very strong chance to win would you back another horse HOPING it will roll the odds on fav.

In saying this i rarely back odds on pops at all and when i like one to win but not enough to back it i just simply do not bet in the race.

But surely you can get off the fence and say you feel supremely confident about a horses winning chance once in a while or else why would you be involved in this game!!!!

__________________
Good luck and good punting.

And remember a profit a day keeps the Girlfriend/Wife away.

Equine Investor
In response to "You are saying that based on PAST results and PAST form Lonhro had a 80% chance in the race for example."
I was not saying Lonhro had an 80% chance at all. In fact I posted my prices before the race and I assessed him at 52.A gross under rating on my part but never the less I was unable to get my price so I stayed out of the race. In the example I was trying to explain that whether a horse is odds on or 10s is not important. What is important is getting a price longer than its real chance of winning. That is what is meant by value.The various arguments on whether you bet when say your fourth pick is value but none of your others is entirely a matter of choice. For what its worth I agree with Testa and if I cant get my price about the likely winner then I don't chase value on the outsiders. I have posted my prices for todays San Domenico Stakes on Paddys topic of the same name. Good luck to all.