gary, ran thru my db which has over 6000 individual races-

win s/rate 19.51%
lot 10.61% @ bf starting price

all states showed a loss except West Australia with a 9%pot

This data appears to be an exact summary of Malcolm Knowles findings on prizemoney and win/place percentages. I have read all his books and have been relying on place % for almost 20 years but now find all the value is gone in recent years. In fact I have kept results for several years and find that on metro tracks the figures are not quite as good as those stated and they now produce a LOT whereas once they produced POT.

Thats exactly correct gunny that's what i was trying to ascertain.

Unfortunately in 2011 the value has now been sadly eroded like the pl%.

The only thing that remains reasonably constant is all the relevant s/rates.

With thorns and stugots back checking it's now 100% clear everything loses.

A sign of the times i guess with so much info now available.

Thanks for all the work stugots much appreciated.

Guess it's only a matter of time till W.A shows a loss
like the other states unfortunately.

cheers
garyf.

Firstly the important stuff that very few people understand. I don't want anyone to take offense at this but the issue with most punters and I mean 99% of punters is they do not research thoroughly enough (or they don't know how to research properly) They do not understand the mathematics of what they are looking at. If you only understand basic probability then creating systems is not for you. If you understand advanced concepts on distributions, expectations, etc then you are going to have a basis from which you may do well.

Now back to the quote.

Do ratings count ?

I know of one selection filter that has 19000+ selections and makes a level stakes profit (1% to 34% depending on the odds you obtain on betfair).

I know of at least 1 free ratings available on the web that provides level stakes profit with no filters. (approx 2% after 9000+ bets).

I know of another rating system that is showing level stakes profit of 5% after 4500+ bets. (again free on the web)

I know of 1 stat (not a rating) that makes a level stakes profit.
Actually depending on what you use (top one or top few) you get a 1% profit or a 50% profit.

Are these stats and filters known to alot of people. Yes and No. But the stats I use are probably not known in the format I use it so the twist I use will probably remain hidden enough for me to make long term profits. Its worked for quite a few years already.


Now why would I give away my edge. Thats the ludicrus part unless I was going to sell books. (which I am not going to do).

Is this directed at me wes because the 1st pl% that was profitable 10 years ago that still maintains its s/rate but now these days has a lower average dividend is losing which as a straight stat i was unaware of.

When used with my ratings it's still profitable what i didn't know was that by itself it is now unprofitable.

"Id like to know what the strike rate and pot would be on highest average prizemoney earners who were not top prizemoney earners? "

Dale

If I read this correctly, you must mean it race by race, where I would have to exclude the top PM earner (not API), then select the highest API horse and see what the S/R and POT would have been?

Am I correct?

It can be done but would be a bit slow to run because one would have to practically re-rate past races. Should be easier to do it while checking results, day to day.
See what I can do.
Cheers

gary,

Not spefici at you. Jsut general info for everyone.

Dale,

It doesn't make a difference. I can run it for you in 20 mins. Got to put my daughter to bed.

OK.

See post 28

Sorry Dale looks like someone is trying to make it into a race.
Happy to help but can't be bothered entering.

Good luck