Holy Grail you would assume is slang for a profitable system into the future built around the individuals requirements.

Barny if your results continue to make you profit into 2013 - you have your Grail if this is what you set out to achieve.

It's Life Jim, but not as we know it!

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

I am bumping this because I believe it has an important part to play in life and on the punt.

Why am I so sure? Well, for one I know the reverse is almost true. When Taken at the low tide I know that I cannot take a trick, and when you are on a downer sometimes it is a long road back.

Lately, I have taken a greater interest in my selections, more importantly the short priced ones. For me, at least, the shorter the price the worse the ride or run of the race.

So much so that I have called a halt and am trying to do some forensic research into the failures. Not that I have lost a lot I haven't, my mid price selections are doing ok, but the trend is not right with these shorties.

Now, it is easy to say, foget them and worry about my winning range which I might do but it is a conundrum that I would like to solve.



Star

Hi Star,

Yes, very frustrating to see your short priced runners getting rolled for any number of reasons.

Do you have a minimum price that you do not bet under or is any price okay?

In recent years I have drawn a line through any horses under $3.30 (pretty close to the "old" 9/4). I have found, although I missed plenty of winners, I still increased my bank balance.

You may be pleasantly surprised if you relook at your figures and use $3.30 as your cut off point.

Good luck with your punting endeavours.

Star
I have just run 50 odd systems thru Betselector. yearly test. Systems that targeted the short end of the market were alright the last week of December and fell into a massive hole for the first 3 weeks of December. Once I finish I will rerun without Dec. Systems that had 40%SR O/A were producing results like 8 wins for 46 bets. So there may be something in the air.

Hi Star,

I looked at the opening price for Melbourne Saturday meetings throughout December.

Results were:-

Opening Fav...23.5%
2nd Fav.........20.6%
3rd Fav.........26.5%
4th Fav...........6.7%
5th Fav.........12.5%

My proviso is if they are equal I take the horse closest to TAB #1 first.

Obviously these are not final order of favouritism but it does show an abnormal distribution (as we would expect it).

http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=25726

Star, your comments are right at the heart of what I wanted from this thread. In my original post I said ..... "A key feature of having a successful system is your ability to understand why it performs as it does, including both good and bad results, and accepting that luck plays it's part too."

You've accepted that you need to do some forensic research to find out why your short priced horses are failing and I agree 100%. Make an allowance for luck, as it does play a role in racing. Do your research without any of your long held beliefs clouding your research. Go into this with an open mind Star. It may be that you've set up a filter based on a mis-conception or a myth, or a long held belief ..... ??

If you find out why your short priced horses are failing then you're on a winner aren't you ?? So the stakes are pretty high. Good luck !!

Judging from the replies and the links maybe the smoke might have a bit more fire in it.

It wouldn't be like the Garbo's xmas cheer like dad used to leave out years ago when they ran beside the truck with the smaller trash cans and he left them a bottle of beer.

Maybe the results are for the Jockey's cheer at festive time? No, perish the thought, why do I think these things.

Star

Now here's a little story
To tell it is a must
About an unsung hero
That moves away your dust.

Some people make a fortune,
Others earn a mint;
My old man don't earn much:
In fact he's flippin' skint.

Oh, my old man's a dustman,
He wears a dustman's hat,
He wears cor-blimey trousers
And he lives in a council flat.
He looks a proper nana
In his great big hobnail boots,
He's got such a job to pull them up
That he calls 'em daisy roots.

Some folks give tips at Christmas,
And some of them forget,
So when he picks their bins up
He spills some on the step.
Now one old man got nasty
And to the council wrote,
Next time my old man went round there
He punched him up the throat.

Oh my old man's a dustman,
He wears a dustman's hat,
He wears cor-blimey trousers
And he lives in a council flat.

Lonnie: I say, I say, Les.
Les: Yes?
Lonnie: I, er, I found a police dog in my dustbin.
Les: Well how do you do know he's a police dog?
Lonnie: He had a policeman with him.

Though my old man's a dustman,
He's got an 'eart of gold,
He got married recently
Though he's eighty-six years old.
We said "'Ere, hang on, Dad,
You're getting past your prime";
He said "Well, when you get to my age
It helps to pass the time."

Oi! My old man's a dustman,
He wears a dustman's hat,
He wears cor-blimey trousers
And he lives in a council flat.

Lonnie: I say, I say, I say!
Les: Huh?
Lonnie: My dustbin's full of lilies.
Les: Well throw 'em away then!
Lonnie: I can't: Lily's wearing them.

Now one day whilst in a hurry,
He missed a lady's bin:
He hadn't gone but a few yards
When she chased after him.
"What game do you think you're playing?"
She cried right from the 'eart,
"You've missed me, am I too late?"
"No, jump up on the cart!"

Oi! My old man's a dustman,
He wears a dustman's hat,
He wears cor-blimey trousers
And he lives in a council flat.

Lonnie: I say, I say, I say!
Les: Not you again!
Lonnie: My dustbin's absolutely full with toadstools.
Les: How do you know it's full?
Lonnie: 'Cos there's not mushroom inside.

He found a tiger's head one day
Nailed to a piece of wood
The tiger looked like miserable,
But I suppose he should.
Just then from out a window
A voice began to wail,
It said "Oi! Where's me tiger's head?"
"Four foot from his tail."

Oh my old man's a dustman,
He wears a dustman's hat,
He wears cor-blimey trousers
And he lives in a council flat.
Next time you see a dustman
Looking all pale and sad,
Don't kick him in the dustbin:
It might be my old dad.