I should explain my strategy of limiting exposure a little more as it's not a case of "just bet less" or "you're just making it worse by giving back profit"

Assume the price I can back at is $2.60
Assume the price I can lay at is $2.70

Assume I lay the horse for $50.00 therefore if it wins I lose $85.00, or if it loses I win equal to my stake of $50.00.

Now my risk is $2.70, but I want even money risk and no more.

So I back it at $2.60 x $13.50.

My outlay on this runner is now $63.50, if it loses I win $36.50
If it wins I lose $63.50 or odds of even money.

Now assuming that 30% of favourites win and 70% lose, in the long run I win $653.00 for every 100 races wagered on.

My profit is reduced but so is my exposure.

So why not just lay for $63.50 instead?

Because I stand to lose $107.95 everytime a winner hits and only win $63.50 each time a lay is successful.

My profit is almost halved but so is my drawdown should a bad run of winners ensue.

However, this will only work up to a certain price before it becomes unprofitable. Also assumed is that you are laying at a profitable price in the longrun.

It might be that someone is thinking, why not just use lay amount of $36.50?

Because I can turnover more money and get an extra reduction in commission which adds a lot more to the bottom line when bet size is three or four figures

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Surely, If your backing a horse at $2.60 and laying it at $2.70 regardless of bet amounts on either, the $2.60 odds is an underlay bet [and deduct 5% Betfair commission too].

I can understand what you are doing is playing the percentages but as you have said this will only work up to a particular price.

The 30% is based on every fav that wins including those at $1.40 to as high aswell $6+ what you need to do is look at the price range that you can actualy make a profit at and work out the percentage from there.

using your example if you lost 65% of races your profit is $2,372.50
and winning 35% of races gives you a loss of $2,222.50
$2,372.50 - $2,222.50 = $145.50 - 5% commission = $138.22

Now this is not all that bad if you multiply the amounts by 10 but you can see where i am going with the percentages depending on the prices..

Chrome Prince

Can you give us an idea of how you calculate the amount to bet to bring your lay risk down to evens?
I have quite a good strike rate on lays, but don't seem to come out much ahead, and I think your method has merit - I'm sure it would improve my bottom line.
Salty

Precisely.

My range is odds on to $2.90

I lay all odds on with no bet back.

Anything from $2.10 to $2.90 I lay and bet back.

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Hi CP

I think you've made a boo boo here.
By my calculations you've now laid the horse for 63.4/36.5, odds of 1.73/1.
The odds laid are now higher than the original bet because you've backed back at lower odds.
Surely you mean back @ 2.70, and lay off at 2.60.
eg lay $50 @ 2.60 = 80/50
back $43.33 @ 2.70 = 73.66/43.33
Which gives, laid an even 6.66........(after commission)

Mark he is trying to play the percentages a bit like that other system you tried where you layed three horses where if the fav came in you lost on the race but in the long run you tried to make a profit with less favs winning, but in the end more favs won than you accounted for.

CP - this is known as hedging, is it not?

Yes I know there are boo boos, but I was very tired when posting (these UK races take a lot out of you.)

I actually am betting back at a higher price, but only when it's within 10c of the lay price and only up to $2.90.

It may be a little obscure, but it's working a treat over hundreds of races.

There is also a little more to it, but I'll keep that bit to myself for now.

Suffice to say that this is in conjunction with other overlays achieved in the race at the same time. I am limiting my exposure on the favourite because I already have huge overlays (no risk) on other horses.

E.g. my profit on one race was $594 and my investment was $46.00.

I had six horses running for me no risk, and could afford to lay and bet back on the favourite to even things up.

But that kind of result is extremely rare, someone offered 100/1 about a horse that was realistically a 15/1 chance. It won, so I collected on the win (after laying it back at realistic odds) and collected on laying the favourite.

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Risk free Chrome ???, I've had people tell me for years that it can't be done.
The best way to go IMO.