OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

#31

17th August 2012, 05:45 AM

Vortech

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[QUOTE=UselessBettor]
It may have been 30 years ago that favs were 20% underbet on X occassions and 20% overbet on X occasions which cancel each other out. Today the 20% overbet is less likely to occur and its more like a 3% overbet or underbet range.

How is the 20% and the 3% overlay calculated? Is it calculated by the Max and Min range?

#32

17th August 2012, 07:23 PM

UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Vortech

I'll find the papers again and provide the link. It was in papers on the fav vs longshot bias but I have read so many research papers I can't tell you quickly which ones looked into it and which didn't.

I suggest reading as much as you can on the fav long shot bias and its movement over time. (it hardly exists on betfair for example).

#33

17th August 2012, 08:47 PM

Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline

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Quote:

Originally Posted by UselessBettor

Today the 20% overbet is less likely to occur and its more like a 3% overbet or underbet range.

Its the opporuntity to take advantage of mis pricing which is relevant and the general research done by people much smarter then me (uni professors, doctrate research) indicates that the range of mispricing has been reducing more and more but especially in the last 10 years.

So there is now a plethora of freely available real-time information, making the market for WIN betting much more transparent and efficient from a pricing perspective.

Would seem to indicate that bigger opportunities now lie in the multiples or an arbitrage angle of some kind?

LG

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#34

20th August 2012, 02:06 PM

darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline

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Spot on Your Lordship.

#35

20th August 2012, 07:22 PM

The Ocho

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With that 4 corners program last week I now realize why faves only win about 30% of the time - because the other races are rigged so that some outsider wins. No wonder just backing the fave doesn't work.

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#36

25th August 2012, 08:29 AM

aussielongboat aussielongboat is offline

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Barny

Would anyone bother to consistently seek out a horse that's had at least 5 runs this time in without winning, and a winning % of let's say near enough to 20%. I'd call these horses overdue for a win ...........

If its in a suitable race and the trainer has backed it up fairly quickly from its most recent start i would be all over it like a cheap suit

#37

25th August 2012, 10:48 AM

AngryPixie AngryPixie is offline

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Quote:

Originally Posted by aussielongboat

If its in a suitable race and the trainer has backed it up fairly quickly from its most recent start i would be all over it like a cheap suit

Even more so if it was in the market last start and failed.

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