Be careful
Isnt it funny how different approaches work for different individuals.My case is almost the opposite to yours. I find my strengths lie in pricing the horses in the market. Probably because I am betting only on the top class runners these days and they produce fewer surprises than the run of the mill horses. Most of my action revolves around getting say 52 about a 64 chance or thereabouts with just the occassional roughie.I do admit though that my best years are when there are a few stand out 2 and 3yos like Testa Rossa,Encounter, Our Maizcay,Sunline (God bless her)to name just a few of recent years. Years like we are having currently are more of a challenge for me as evidenced in the two races I have assessed this season where I have grossly under rated Lonhro (which didnt cost me as I could not get my price)and not given Star Of Florida his due (which did cost as I priced Calaway Gal at 64 and bet accordingly).Anyway all the best .

becareful,
You seem to have described my system down to a tee. I too stake 1% of bank on each bet which will decrease or increase respectively.

I agree that it is better to aim for overs of $3 or more rather than looking for just 30 cents, and even though you can have a low strike rate your POT has the potential to be far greater.

This staking plan also allows a bank to survive droughts, (and we have all experienced droughts), and its easier and smarter to survive if your staking plan does not incorporate double ups.

Would you be willing to tell us what your average POT % is? You may have already posted this before, and did you have a good day yesterday?

Anyway, I'm glad to see I'm not the only punter who bets like this.

Cheers.

__________________
AS WE ALL KNOW, A MUG PUNTER WHO THINKS HE IS A SMART PUNTER, IS THE BIGGEST MUG PUNTER OF THEM ALL.

ThePedro,

My strike rate is just over 10% and my POT is sitting on about 22% (these figures are my averages since March when I started using my current system). POT was at about 30% before July but I had a bad month and only did a bit better than break even for the month - last two weeks have been much better. I think next year I will follow the lead of one professional punter I know and go on holiday for the month of July!!! On a daily basis the POT varies from -100% to +1000%, weekly range between -90% (bad week in July!) to +300% and monthly figures range from +3% to +95%

I don't actually bet on most Saturdays (except for a few fun bets outside of my system) as I specialise in mid-week racing - I like to do the opposite of what everyone else does! Seriously though I find it easier to find big overlays on the weekday racing and have family commitments on most weekends anyway.

Best of luck!

__________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

becareful,

Thanks for sharing that info with us. Forgive me if I sound dum.....

Your POT is 22%, your strike rate is around 10%, and your target odds line is around $8-25.

So you strike one winner which pays $12.20 every 10 bets on average? You really are a GUN.

When you mentioned $8-25 I assumed an average of $16.50 one in 10 bets, which would give you a POT of 65% which is....DAMN GOOD...and you should be starting a bidding war for the rights to your system.

However, 22% is still good in my books. How far back have you proved your system based upon previous results and is the average POT% the same?

One more question to cure my curiosity, have you tried increasing your minimum odds line (which may in turn decrease your number of bets), to see if you can aquire a higher POT%??

Becareful do you use das-divi plus as you would know they give you top price from the three tab's and I think an extra 5% on top of this.

ThePedro,

Yes - my average div is just over $12. The reason this is a bit below the midpoint of 8-25 is that I require a higher overlay on the higher divs and there are some extra criteria that I apply on the ones over about $14 so this means I have more bets and divs in the $8-$14 range than the $14-$25 range.

Since I started actively betting on this in March I have made several revisions to the system based on my experiences so the POT recently is higher than the overall average. For example POT since start of June is 30% (this includes my bad period in July), POT for last two weeks is 50%. I have accurate price data (before and after jump prices) in my database from January this year which I test any changes against and less accurate data (after jump price only) for several years - POT is a bit higher on paper than I am getting at the moment but I am pretty happy with 20-30% :grin: When I originally started I was hoping for 10-15%! I have placed about 1500 bets since March so I am fairly confident that the POT figure is not just luck!

I have done a lot of analysis on working out the overlays required for different prices, etc, and this is why I have higher overlays required on the longer odds horses. I can increase my POT (on paper anyway) by increasing overlay required but it dramatically cuts the turnover so although POT is higher my net profit goes down through reduced bets (and boredom level goes up!)

And no - the system is not for sale!

Plugga1976 - As I only generally bet on weekday races Divi-plus is not available on the majority of the races I bet on. Also I don't like the requirement to bet 60 seconds prior to jump with IAS - almost all my bets are placed with 10 seconds of the start. I do have accounts with all three TABs and try to place my bet with the TAB offering highest dividend.

__________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

Good stuff becareful,

Any "system" has to be constantly tweaked tuned and revised according to changing conditions. Sounds like you are doing quite well. My stable system has a low strike rate somewhere around th 10-15% mark but is showing 105 units or 56% profit at level stakes with only one horse completing it's five run criteria.

The bottom line is we all have different systems going with different criteria, but this forum is a great place to share ideas and even learn something new. I know from your mathematical knowledge becareful, I have now considered variables which never came to my mind before!

:grin:

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-08-12 17:23 ]