No maidens, hurdles or races for 2yr olds. The system might work for maidens, I've never tested it. Who knows?

3rd or 4th up simply means it's either the horse's 3rd or 4th start ever, or 3rd or 4th start from a spell and that would probably depend on the form guide you use as there are different ideas about the amount of time a horses hasn't ran for which represents a spell. Just stick with the same source.

Hey Joel, you dropped off the planet mate?

Just wanted to say that I love the first post in this thread, you have obviously put a lot of thought into it.

Privateer

Mr QUADDIE,

With WIZ PUNT I am only using it on Saturdays.

Cheers.
darky.

G'day Privateer,

It does feel like I've fallen off the planet a bit...been so busy lately.

I had been feeling a little guilty that I haven't really contributed very much to this forum in terms of offering system builders possible angles. And though I love the process involved in trying to nut out system rules for a potential system, I just don't get much free time these days to do much full-on research. So I just wanted to post a couple of potential system rules that others might find useful.

One of the keys to any system is finding value. So the question is what are some things your average punter is going to look at in the form guide that might sway his bets one way or another, but are really either irrelevant in the outcome of the race, or if they do suggest a result, they are so overbet, there's just no value left in the selection (a system with a 50% strike rate is absolutely useless if the average price is $2.00 or less).

Here's a short list I've come up with:

Widest Barrier - they think a horse can't win from the widest barrier, so avoid it, which generates some value.
Lowest TAB #'s - they think the winners will only come from near the top of the list, and forget those near the bottom, which generates value in those lower TAB #'s.
Highest Money Earner - they overbet the horse with the highest prizemoney earned, which leaves no value.
Favourites - they overbet the favs, especially when they're trying to dig themselves out of a hole, so there's no value left.
Down in Class/Prizemoney - they overbet those horses that are coming down in class, thinking that well if they just raced against a better mob of horses last start, then surely it can knock off this lot, which results in no value for the selection. This one needs some consideration. If you were a trainer and confident in your horse that just raced in a $75,000 race, would you want it's next race to be for $100,000 or $50,000? In my mind, when a horse is coming down in class, it's because the trainer has little confidence in it, and is trying to compensate for that by giving it a lower field to race against. Regardless, these horses are usually overbet, and there's no value in them.

Anyone else have any tips for system builders to incorporate into their systems?

Anyway, thanks for your message Privateer. It's good to hear from you. Hope you have a good day today mate.

Regards,
Joel

__________________
...time held me green and dying, though I sang in my chains like the sea. - Dylan Thomas

To follow up on my last post, here's how those categories performed today in the 4 main tracks (Brisbane/Sydney/Melbourne/Adelaide metro):

The widest drawn horse in each race returned $69.10w / $52.80p, and had strike rates of 18% and 46% respectively over the 33 races. Good value to be had for both the win and place.

The lowest TAB # horse in each race returned $56.4w / $21.00p, and had strike rates of 6% and 15% respectively over the 33 races. Good value for the win bets, but the strike rates seem a bit too low. Maybe the mug punters have this one right...avoid the lowest TAB # horses.

The horse with the highest API (average prizemoney earned per race) in each race returned a miserly $15.80w / $24.60p, and had strike rates of 15% and 45% respectively over the 33 races. I think this is going to surprise some people. Yes, these horses will often be considered the best in the race because of the higher API, but they're just so overbet, they can't be trusted to turn a profit. Best to avoid these horses.

The favourite horse in each race returned $33.00w / $27.6p, and had strike rates of 33% and 52% respectively over the 33 races. It's just too risky to have to rely on such a high strike rate for the win just to break even. Best to rule a line through them.

The horses racing for less prizemoney today than they did last start returned $48.2w / $53.2p, and had a win strike rate of 13.4% for the 67 selections. Again, these horses are overbet, and lose all value. Like favourites, just rule a line through them.


So, what if we combined these ideas. What are the results of the horses that had the widest barrier, were not the lowest TAB #, were not the horse with highest API in the race, were not the favourite, and are not racing for less prizemoney today than they did last start?

20 selections returned $59.40w / $38.10p, and had strike rates of 10% and 40% respectively. Not too bad. The win strike rate is a bit low, so maybe it would be better to focus on place bets.

FYI, the prices are based on the TABonline website, and while I tried to be accurate in my calculations, I won't promise they're all correct, so if you happen to find a mistake, well...good for you. I basically just wanted to follow up on those ideas in my previous post to see if they might be worthy for others to incorporate into their system(s). Hopefully, someone will find at least some of this input useful.

And no I didn't bet those 20 selections today (unfortunately). :C

__________________
...time held me green and dying, though I sang in my chains like the sea. - Dylan Thomas

Thanks for sharing your observations Silver.

There are some very interesting stats there, that may have some futher potential.

Hers a plan that had some success, that I ran, as one of my many sysytems.

. Bet the 2 widest barriers in races with exactly 10 runners.

. We are usually betting 2 horses a race to win, bet same amount on each.

. Must be $4.50+ pre-post.

It had a 20% win SR with some amazing prices.

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

Bhagwan

Looking at Sydney races ONLY:

Runners 10
Barrier 10
Saddle Cloth <11
3 yo
<$4.10

Since 1/1/00
Selections 110
Wins 44 (S/R 40.00%) Places 74 (67.27%)
POT 19% LOT 2.15%

Since 1/1/05
Selections 48
Wins 23 (S/R 47.92%) Places 33 (68.75%)
POT 41.46% LOT 3.04%

__________________
Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!

Regardless of the horse's name or form, we just bet on whoever is in barriers 9 and 10 in a exact 10 horse field right?

Does anyone have any long term stats for this?

Seems interesting.

Also, it seems that favourites only win 33% of the time, so its best not to bet on a the favourite I assume.

Interesting Stats there Stix, well done.
Thanks for sharing your observations.

Hi Quaddi
My stats were over 4.5yrs
$4.50+ pre-post newspaper.

Stix's idea was horses less than $4.10


This crazy idea, even showed a profit betting the 2 horses for a place only for some outragously high divs.

Most pundits will say that it is impossible to show a profit betting 2 horses a race at place betting.

It would be interesting to see other pundits ideas based around 10 runners exactly.
No matter how crazy it may appear.
It's the crazy form horses that hits the crazy dividends.
We dont need many to recover losses.

For those who enjoy discrediting posters mad ideas, I advise them to place lay bets either not to win or not to place, on all these selections & just see what happens next, one may find a very rude suprise to their bank balance.


Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

So we disregard, say, anything that has placed within it's last 3-4 starts?

__________________
Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!