Update

Bets 66; Won 49; Lost 20
At Flat Stakes: Bet 69; Won 10.60; ROI 15.3%


A terrible evening going 0-3 - my worst for the year. I could write a post-mortem but there isn't much point. I still believe the players were solid selections based on the data but days like this come with the territory so onward and upward. The change in surfaces isn't usually this problematic but I'd urge caution with stakes during this changeover period.


Pascual v Stosur
Round 1 Charlston

Stosur is an ordinary clay-courter with a 19/20 career record. Easily beaten by Peer at Amelia Island. Had very poor clay swing for past 2 seasons and doesn't have any big results outside of australia. Ruano-Pascual beat good clay-courter Sprem in Amelia Island and lost a tight 3 setter to imroving Domachowska. A clay court specialist with a 83/72 career record.

Pascual $1.65

Srebotnik v Pratt
Round 1 Charlston

A similar story to the above. Pratt is an ordinary clay courter with a 30/38 career record. She's having an ordinary season and only made the tournament as a wildcard. Easily beaten by Chladkova last week who's a similar player to Srebotnik. Srebotnik has a 57/44 career record and has had one of the best starts to a season in her career. Playing well though easily beaten by classy Dulko at Amelia Island. Pratt is nowhere near the same class and meets Srebotnik on her favourite surface.

Srebotnik $1.45

Update

Bets 71; Won 50; Lost 21
At Flat Stakes: Bet 71; Won 10.05; ROI 14.2%

(NB: Made a typo yesterday on number of bets in update but self explanatory)

I defy anyone to make sense of this week. Flat betting on the underdogs would have produced a huge windfall over the past few days given the number of upsets. Bit short on time so abbreviated write-ups again.

Molik has withdrawn and is replaced by LL Perebiynis


Srebotnik v Perebiynis
Charlston Round 2

Following on from yesterday's write-up, Srebotnik will be too strong for lucky loser Perebiynis. Perebiynis is having a miserable season and was beaten in qualifying by lowly ranked Pelletier and thumped last week in the first round of Amelia Island by Castano. She's an average clay-courter who has better results on hard courts.

Srebotnik $1.40 @ 5Dimes


Koukalova v Stosur
Charlston Round 2

Opposing Stosur for the same reasosn I posted yesterday. I was very surprised by her win over Pascual because I've seen Stosur play on clay and she's rather ordinary. Her career record is now 20/20. Koukalova's career is 58/42 and she has s few wins over quality players on the surface. Don't quite understand the prices.

Koukalova $1.83 @ 5Dimes
(available 1.90 at smaller bookies)

Asagoe v Shaughnessy
Charlston Round 2
Asagoe is in fine form at the moment and seems to be handling the conditions well. Wins over Myskinsa, Raymond and a close loss to Petrova at Amelia Island hold her in excellent stead. Also a good first round win here. A few question marks over Shaughnessy's fitness (withdrew last week with back injury) and she hasn't really done much on the dirt since the swing started. Beat Daniilidou but it may surprise some people that she has a very average clay record. Should be close but I like the price

Asagoe $1.75 @ 5Dimes

Update

Bets 73; Won 52; Lost 21
At Flat Stakes: Bet 73 units; Won 11.28 units; ROI 15.4%

Better result last night with 2 wins and one void due to Shaughnessy's withdrawal before play. A tough round tonight during a tough week - not much appeals.

Vaidisova v Asagoe.
QF Charleston

Vaidisaova continues to defy opinion that her lack of clay experience - 8 WTA games thus far - would soften her meteoric rise in the rankings. However Asagoe is also rather inexperienced on the dirt with a 16/17 career record. This will be a close game, a point reinforced by their results against the classy Myskina in the past week. Asagoe squeaked home 7:6 7:6 on Amelia Island's green clay while Vaidisova won in a hard fought 3 sets yesterday. Both have also played well in the early rounds although Asagoe had the benefit of a walkover in Round 2. They've also met once before on red clay in Acapulco 2004 with Vaidisova winning in straight sets. A close game but my program rates Vaidisova a 57.8% chance of winning.

Vaidisova $1.80 @ StanJames

Update

Bets 74; Won 53; Lost 21
At Flat Stakes: Bet 74 units; Won 11.98 units; ROI 16.2%

Vaidisova did just enough to get passed Asagoe so a good result in the end.
Her price shortened rather quickly so I'll record $1.70 to make the potential
return a better reflection of prices.

Some interesting match-ups tonight - but bookies very slow to price up.

Schnyder v Vaidisova
Charleston

Both players are in top form at the moment but at this stage of the tournament I have to go for experience. Schnyder reached the semi-finals here last year and is therefore defending a lot of ranking points. Her performances this week suggest she is very focused which is rather comforting as she can be a bit erratic at times. Let's hope positive Patty turns out tonight. Overall Schnyder's an excellent clay-courter with a 118/71 career record who is coming off two convincing straight-set wins this week. Vaidisova, while very inexperienced in these conditions, has performed admirably this week. However some of her frailties were on display yesterday against Asagoe - including a large unforced error count and drop-off in concentration. Schydner has far more 'weapons'than Asagoe so a similar effort to yesterday could spell trouble for Vaidisova. My program rates Schydner a 66.5% chance of winning.

Schydner $1.60 @ Sportstab
(there could be better prices by a few cents later).

Update

Bets 75; Won 54; Lost 21
At Flat Stakes: Bet 75 units; Won 12.58 units; ROI 16.8%


Schydner certainly proved her value on clay by easily disposing of Vaidisova. HeninHardenne could be a good bet tonight depending on her price. Bookies have been slow to price up this week - perhaps more interested in ATP Monaco - but WTA prices should be out by 6.00 AEST.

Has "Allez Justine " been recovering from the injury that put her out of one of the majors last year ..I havent seen hide nor hair of her then again as I said Im not up to speed on all these tour tounaments....I love her shes a little tiger

Hi Floydy - Justine's about 8 games back form her injury troubles. She was struck down with a virus last year and took rest of the season off after the US Open. Then, prior to her return in January, she did her knee and finally made her comeback in Miami last month. She's a champion - if sometimes a little unsporting - and should have too much for Golovin. Just a matter of price.

Thanks for that Marco

Henin-Hardenne v Golovin
Semi Final - Charleston

Golovin's surprised me this week as I thought she'd lose her last two games. She played well against Venus Williams but Venus's astronomical unforced error count certainly helped Glovin's cause. I also think today will be a lot harder - Henin-Hardenne just doesn't quit and while she's clearly on the comeback trail, her clay skills and killer backhand have barely diminished. Sure, she's not at her peak and has dropped a few sets this week but I still think she'll do the job against her much younger and more inexperienced rival. My program rates Henin a 70% chance of winning and while her price is right on the value line, I'll take the odds.

Henin $1.44 @ StanJames.


I'm also tipping Schydner to beat Dementieva but she's just a tad short in the bookies' prices. May be worth a look at Betfair.

I think Ill sit this one out Ive backed her at that price before probably feb or march last year had acouple of hundred on her cant even remember who she played but she was at the top of her game and it seemed like good value at the time ...she got the bikkies in 2 sets no probs ...but that first sentence in your thread and the fact thats shes on the comeback trail coupled with my self imposed temporary exile from sizeable bets will make me a watcher on this one....but good luck I hope she kicks ********