Sat.29th. April

Possible system selections [odds and track cond't unknown]:

Caufield
R5/2 Pure Silence (5) 56.5 4yo b h (D L Freedman at Rye) N Callow [bet w]

Eagle Farm
R3/11 Mr Hornblower (1) 53.0 4yo b g (Ms T Green at Doomben) A Pattillo

Gold coast
R8/10 Langlaw (9) 54.53yo b g (M A Sims at Gold Coast) S Nakamura (a 3.0)

Benalla
R6/3 Creswina (6) 56.03yo ch g (C W McDonald at Caulfield) A Darmanin
R6/10 Iquitos (10) 53.04yo b/br g (L T Hope at Kilmore) B Park

Morphetville
R4/2 Tivation (1) 54.03yo b f (B C Mueller at Strathalbyn) D Tourneur
R8/7 Potter (12) 53.55yo b h (S P Gower at Morphettville) W Kerford

Crash, Sorry I havan’t replied earlier, but as I was writing this the other day explaining what I had done, I got my self muddled up again. Thank you for the explanation of what I didn’t know.

“If you were looking for the 3rd. favorite pp and there was say
1 runner at 3.50 [1st betting line]” – my thinking favourite
“and 2 at $5 [2nd line]” – thinking equal 2nd favourite
“and 2 more at $7 [3rd line]” – thinking equal 3rd favourite


Rule 5) Must be the 4th start in from a spell only.
I took this as 4th plus starts in from a spell
I went through my results again and found only two match all this, if its 4th in from a spell.
22/4 serene prince – 1st $2.70 14day- last 4 starts x422
27/4 miracle fred – 1st $1.90 14 day- x214

Here is what I was doing:

Mark the first 3 favs/lines that have a c-d-t
Last four starts – fourth or more from a spell
Last start either 7 or 14 days exactly
Distance ..etc

But I am still going to keep working at it. I havan’t had a chance to look at yesterdays or todays yet.

Hi Feather,

Mark the first 3 favs/lines that have a c-d-t
Last four starts – fourth or more from a spell
Last start either 7 or 14 days exactly
Distance ..etc

Nothing wrong with D.I.Y rule changes, especially when they work !!

4th. or more in from a spell makes strong sense handicapping wise as it means the runner is at max. fitness, especially for middle distance races [1600m to 2250m]. Watch out though for horse that have had too many runs in and are on a fitness slide [generally after 8 runs in]. A bit hard to tell from a newspaper however. I use [www] 'firstpastthepost' for about $35 a month which pays for itself over and over. Worth a look at the 'samples' and explanations of what you get [a whole new world].

In my revised rules I have used 'must be 3rd [had 2 runs] or 4th [had 3 runs] start in from a spell' to cover all distances from 1100m to 2250m as plenty of horses are now 'primed' by their 3rd up run for the shorter distances. Higher fitness levels can be reached a lot quicker nowadays, as training methods have changed a fair bit and it's common to see runners 3rd or 4th up winning middle distance events.

Good luck today.

Crash , I didn’t any the same as you, so obviously I am not understanding the rules and I’ve changed them around for my understanding.
With the metro I was only looking at races from 1200m up, Also think 3rd race in from a spell, is a good change.
This is the first time I have any 6yo.
Based on what I have done this past week, this is what I have today.

BR3-1 COGNISANT, 6g,14d,1600m,tb
MR5-3 HASSLE, 5g, 14d,1800m,d
MR8-8 MONO ROCK, 4g 14d,1400m,c
GC7-7 SWEPTRONIC, 4g, 14d, 1400m, c
GC8-1 TELFIRE, 3g, 14d, 1300m, d

AR5-1 SWISS VAULT, 6m, 14d, 1100m, tc

No 6yr. olds in new rules [for good reasons too long to go into here and also without infringing copyright]. Distances are 1100m to 2050m

3) 3 to 5 yr olds only and not a female against a male.

According to new rules:

BR3-1 COGNISANT, 6g,14d,1600m,tb [is 6yrs old and.has never run within 50m of the distance, but will probably win this race now that Mamaluke is out. I have bet against it on Grand Lover e/w which is not a system bet].

MR5-3 HASSLE, 5g, 14d,1800m,d [ok]
MR8-8 MONO ROCK, 4g 14d,1400m,c [ok]

GC7-7 SWEPTRONIC, 4g, 14d, 1400m, c [race is a C1]
GC8-1 TELFIRE, 3g, 14d, 1300m, d [6th start in]
AR5-1 SWISS VAULT, 6m, 14d, 1100m, tc [6yr.old.]

I might have accidently left out the no C1's in the new rules, but they are rubbish races to bet in mostly and full of inconsistent horses who might do anything. Who needs em'?

Nice start:
Eagle Farm
R3/11 Mr Hornblower (1) 53.0 4yo b g (Ms T Green at Doomben) A Pattillo [w$6.40] I backed it for a win with a 'free' new accont bet and also Grand lover e/w with my money in my IAS account so I came out ..quite well in the end.

"MR5-3 HASSLE, 5g, 14d,1800m,d [ok]"

w $4.90

Hope your betting on your system selections Feather:-)

Sat. possible system selections

Caufield
R5/2 Pure Silence (5) [unp]

I had missed seeing R5 Hassle [w$4.90] and R8 Mondo rock [unp] that Feather picked up for the rules.

Eagle Farm
R3/11 Mr Hornblower (1) [w$6.40 $2.10p]

Gold coast
R8/10 Langlaw (9) [no chance, poor odds, no bet]

Benalla [seperated these 2 with the 'best barrier' rule]
R6/3 Creswina (6) [$1.80p]
R6/10 Iquitos (10)

Morphetville
R4/2 Tivation (1) [unp]
R8/7 Potter (12) [unp]
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System evolution:
I have tightened and simplified track and distance rules which allows elimination of PP prices altogether. Basically if the runner passes the rules as they are now, it has a decent chance of winning the race and sometimes at very good odds because it has been overlooked. I have also allowed both good and dead track condt., but only if the runner has performed well on the dead or good tracks [covered in rules]. 10 rules now instead of 11 which I feel better about.

:......................Newspaper and Coffee......................

1) No Maidens, 2yr.olds, hurdles, stakes, cups, group races, C1's, Slow or Heavy tracks.
2) Distance 1100m to 2250m on good or dead tracks if runner has placed in condt. or won in 3 tries.
3) 3 to 5 yr olds only and not a female against a male.
5) Last start 16 days or less or for Wed. or Sat. meetings, 7 or 14 days only.
6) Must be the 3rd or 4th start in from a spell and have won or placed in one of them.
7) No more than 100m down in distance.
8) Must have at least placed at distance [+/-100m] and won by 4 tries.
9) Must have at least placed at track and won by 4 runs unless first start at track.
10) If more than 1 selection choose the runner with the inside barrier.
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Sunday 30th. April.
Track condt. unknown.

Bendigo
R3/10 x324 French Rhythm (NZ) (6) 53.0 3yo br f (R E Laing at Cranbourne) [backmarker]
R6/10 x367 All Charisma (5) 53.5 5yo ch m (G A Thornton at Geelong) [backmarker]

Horsham
R7/4 x53 Popeye Doyle (8) 54.0 4yo ch g (J W Edwards at Geelong) B Cross. [On pacer].

Pinjarra
R3/7 x81 Tiger Mite (11) 53.5 4yo b m (K W Shanks at Melville) Ms A Sansom [ - ]
R6/6 x21 Aztec Eagle (7) 54.5 4yo ch g (L W Healey at Warnbro) [backmarker]

Sunshine Coast
R6/5 x20 Just Ordained (7) 55.0 3yo b g (B J McLachlan at Sunshine Coast) J Holder [mid-pacer]

Tamworth
R8/8 x43 Formula Uno (11) 55.0 5yo b g (L J Tilley at Wyong) A Gibbons [leader]

Crash, I am going to give it another week and then think what to do.

Today I have
SscR4-3, 3g 14d, only vision
Ssc r7-1, 5d 14d little punc
Ssc r8-3, 4g 14d likazyrtec
Laun r2-1, 4m 21d swan ky bar
Horsh r7-2 ,3c 21d another cat