Divide the profit by the average win dividend, you'd be looking at a minimum of ten making up the profit.

But, divide it again by the maximum dividend and if you get a small number, it's pretty shaky.

The more the better.

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Thought I would add some real results to this thread (and to boast).

I devised an approriate staking method for a new system I started running a few days ago (started on the 28th Dec).

Since starting to place actual bets level stakes shows the profit to be a loss of 2%. The staking plan I am using is showing a profit of 700% ( i think that is right).

I have turned a test bank(real money) of $100 into over $7000 in the last few days.. real money not play money ....

I have moved away from trying to be right 100% of the time and have been concentrating on staking. To me getting the correct staking plan is MORE important then working out better ways of selecting the winners.

Good Luck.

can you post your selections?

I assume you mean selections to date. Here they are.

28th Dec
Wagga R1 - Inside Fifty - 2nd
Coffs Harbour R3 - Grenades - LOST

29th Dec
Corowa R3 - Pyang - 2nd
Rosehill R1 - Why're You Waiting -2nd
Stony Creek R1 - Threatened - 2nd
Doomben R1 - King Leonidas - 2nd
Rosehill R2 - Guillotine - WIN
Mooney Valley R3 - The Fonz - 2nd
Gawler R2 - Planet Ice - WIN
Gold Coast R3 - Headlight - WIN
Rockhampton R1 - Jusforsatisfaction - WIN
Ascot R6 - Lambton Castle - 2nd
Gold Coast R5 - Tears'n'cheers - WIN
Kembla Grange R6 - Thebe - WIN
Gold Coast R6 - Line By Line - 3rd
Rockhampton R5 - Danzamonkey - WIN

30th Dec
cranbourne Rce 2 - Dance Of Danes - WIN
scone Rce 2 - Ready To Impress - 2nd
Hobart Rce 8 - Urban Waltz - WIN

31st Dec
Echuca R4 - Melbachenko WIN
Echuca R5 - De Mars WIN

1st Jan
Inverall R1 - Admiral Nediym - 2nd
Mornington R5 - Stage Presence - WIN

2nd Jan
Eagle Farm R1 - Pashionately Yours - WIN
Seymour R2 - Hay Lover - 2nd
Wyong R2 - Sportsground - 2nd
Wyong R4 - Hidden Assets - 2nd
Eagle Farm R7 - Rockem - WIN

I won't be giving out selections before the date .... why would I because how do I benefit from giving them out .... They are going to lose on level stakes (-2%) and people would complain.

If you check out the above selections you will probably work out the main factors being looked at anyway and any decent handicapper would have come up with similar selections.

Good Luck.

I think 'any decent handicapper' would probably disagree with you there. 14 winners from 27 bets is a SR of more than 50% winners along with almost a 100% place SR !


I don't know the prices, but I can only see a win system not a loss system, unless of course you had a complete reversal of selection ability from hopeless to genius handicapper/system creator.

Even if the winners were only paying $2 you would still be in front, but I'm sure they were mostly paying more than that.

From 29th Dec. Rosehill r2 to 1st Jan. you had a outstanding SR of 12 winners from 17 bets that were all e/w winners as well !

As a place system you had only 1 loss from 27 bets. Another remarkable selection achievement for any punter and the results from 27 bets is a bit beyond the reach of punting luck.

If you can keep it up [or anywhere near it] you have a license to print money, regardless how you stake your bets.

Well done!

I should add of course that if you meant a -2% loss on the above selections, it probably means that most of your winners were odds-on or close to it. Regardless though, a remarkable strike rate of winners and place getters!

Of course you are right, Crash, and if you go back through the selections Wes has kindly provided you will see that most are odds on or close to it.

It reminds me of some posts in the Ausrace forum from some years ago (a number of people on this forum would remember what I am referring to). There was a guy there who maintained that he could come out way ahead with a progression system (for the place in his case). He was howled down over and over again; but he held on to his belief, and probably is still doing it despite the fact "that it can't be done". In his figures you only had to have a 67% strike rate for the place to be a winner.

Must try it again!!!

crash, Merriguy,

Yes most of the winners are odds on. The 2% loss is on unitab figures so best tote or betfair would push this into profit ( I looked at betfair and it made it roughly a 10% profit).

The thing to remember is they are NOT all odds on selections. They are p[ut through filters to eliminate false favs. The filters are faily easy to work out too as there are not too many.

I suspect this run of selections has been a bit lucky but you need luck every once in a while.

Good Luck.

Well I think wesmip1 should just keep doing what he is doing. Whatever progressive staking system he is using he is making money with his incredible win and/or place strike rate.

I did check the prices and for the win there was a small loss, for the place only a reasonable profit and for e/w a tiny profit. 0.3 of a unit. so the win only is a loss at level stakes.

wesmip1

Do you mind if i ask what form guide you use to make thos selections?