Thanks everyone for your comments:

Rhino82: I agree that “Race Tempo” is a factor. The only way to measure this is to look at sectional times and race times, which is a complex ball game in itself. Also weight carried, Race Class, are also factors and but I can’t see how you can measure riding style and jockey decisions.

Kanga: Good Point; What I’m driving at is to try to find a way to determine if a runner is up to the expected “pressure” of the upcoming race.

Moeee: yes I agree… It’s CLASS! Not the arbitrary race class as set out in the race conditions, but the Class of the animal itself. The question is how do you measure it? In a book I read once there was the statement “the punter who can understand class will make a fortune”. I’m sure that is very true.

UselessBettor: Ok, it’s a toughie. But that doesn’t mean we can’t try. Let’s say that we evaluate a race and the expected “Race Pressure” is X – 10%. Now our runner is evaluated at X + 10%. Would it be hard to pick the likely winner? Just have to define X!

Thanks everyone, any more tips?
Kind Regards
CairnsMan